William Berek

Master of Climate Change Science & Policy. On the climate priorities and forecasting team at MfE. Former Climate Adviser at the Reserve Bank of NZ. Views my own

[William Berek @Berekade]

Nice to see a head of state (former, but still), accurately describe what is happening in Gaza as a genocide. Thank you @HelenClarkNZ

[Helen Clark @HelenClarkNZ]

Standing at closed #Rafah crossing to #Gaza where no people or vehicles enter or depart is an eerie experience. Beyond that gate is an unfolding famine & genocide. The world has a duty to act - otherwise “never again” are empty words. It’s on our watch. https://t.co/f5xvMY3qaq

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

Some thoughts on the new Epstein Files revelations:

I’ve now read everything that’s come out from the new Haberman and Swan book, and the thing I keep coming back to is the Situation Room. They held multiple meetings in the Situation Room about the Epstein files. That room is for war. It’s for national security emergencies. It is not for figuring out how to spin a scandal you’re telling the country is a hoax.

While the President was deflecting or calling this old news, his own Vice President and Chief of Staff were huddled in the most leak-proof room in America because they knew how bad it really was.

You don’t take a nothingburger to the Situation Room.

And I have to be honest, reading all this brings back a lot of frustration about what happened in the House of Representatives. I sat there and watched Mike Johnson send the House home early to dodge a vote on releasing these files. I watched him refuse to swear in a duly elected colleague for months just to stall the discharge petition. Month after month of excuses, arm twisting, and procedural games, all to keep this information from the public. We only got the files because survivors, families, and a handful of members in both parties simply refused to let it go.

So when people ask me why I talk so much about transparency and accountability, this is why. The truth eventually comes out. It always does.

The only question is whether your leaders helped reveal it or helped bury it.

Everyone who voted to keep these files hidden should have to answer for that.

Finally, notice what’s missing from all of this is any sign that Trump’s DOJ will actually investigate the powerful men named in these files.

Draw your own conclusions about why a Justice Department run by the President’s former defense lawyers might not be eager to pull that thread.

[Automatic @automaticnba]

Same chart for the conference/division finals.

Some of the best playoff scoring stretches we've ever seen.

[Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari @RepYassAnsari]

The White House cover up of the Epstein Files is the most egregious, disturbing and corrupt in American history. It’s criminal.

Read this stunning new reporting from the @nytimes ⬇️

https://t.co/ne1D1161z1

[William Berek @Berekade]

@NoaDalzell is there any evidence of this from the basketball nerd, sloan sports conference stats nerd types? Like are there more and longer runs than you would expect given league average true shooting%, foul rates, Oreb rate, and turnover rates?

[Greta Thunberg Respecter 40K 🇸🇪🇵🇸🚀🇰🇵 @JucheAffirmer]

This is genuinely such a disaster. I just don't get how this is what we're doing: manipulating oil futures to create an illusion of calm until oil stocks literally run out and we get the global economic version of losing consciousness from blood loss.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Peak authoritarianism.

US administration investigating Iran war critic Trita Parsi, says report https://t.co/08TRM9XzlB

[Lev Akabas @LevAkabas]

The Knicks trailed by 27 points at halftime and won

Every single other team that trailed by 20+ points at halftime in NBA Finals history ended up losing the game by double digits

[Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur oPt @FranceskAlbs]

Let’s stop calling it settler violence. It is settler TERROR. These criminals roam the West Bank with impunity, and the world stays silent.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

War crime

[Charted Daily @Charteddaily]

New data from @MBIEgovtnz shows renewables made up a record 95.5% of New Zealand's electricity generation in the six months to March 2026.
Solar generation was up 60% year-on-year.

[NBA @NBA]

HE CAME OUT OF NOWHERE 🤯

OG ANUNOBY WITH THE CLUTCH PUTBACK FOR THE WIN!

[ArtButMakeItSports @ArtButSports]

Cast of Laocoön and his Sons (Roman version of a lost Greek original), 100BC-50AD

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

The story may not be that Hormuz is open.

It may be that the U.S. has built a wartime oil shuttle system.

Escorts, drones, STS transfers, and a limited tanker fleet appear to be keeping some Gulf oil moving.

The question isn't whether oil is flowing.

It's whether this is sustainable.

#Oil #Hormuz #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #Tankers #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #SupplyChains #Commodities

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

President Trump has posted that 100 Million barrels of oil are making its way through the Strait.

This appears to be what is happening.

⚓️President Trump and @CENTCOM announced Project Freedom to escort ships through the Strait. The US evacuated two US ships but then curtailed the operation.
⚓️It appears that the US resumed the operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drones to escort ships through the southern part of the Strait, near the coast of Oman.
⚓️Iran has responded with targeting of some ships, these include HMM Namu and CMA CGM San Antonio. The US has responded with airstrikes against Iran.
⚓️ What has transpired is tankers, including Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Persian Gulf. Then, per @TankerTrackers, the VLCCs are conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
⚓️The empty tankers, which ran the Strait with their AIS, run back through the Strait to pick up a new load of oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Iraq.
⚓️The Apache helicopter that recently crashed was probably a part of this operation.
⚓️This explains why we have not seen an appreciable drop in the number of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. By running the same ships, war risk insurance, potentially provided by the US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) through a pool of approximately of $40 billion, could be covering these ships making the transits.
⚓️This would also explain the recent announcement by Kuwait to fix new contracts for its oil.
⚓️The question is how long is this sustainable and at what level is oil moving daily. With current pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this system would need to move approximately 12-14M barrels/day through the Strait.

This analysis is based on open source material, but big shout out to @TankerTrackers @Kpler @MarineTraffic @LloydsList @gCaptain for their postings and research.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Trump restarting airstrikes on Iran is a huge mistake.

It will not bring Iran closer to a deal.

Attacks alone can’t coerce concessions. Trump must also convince Iran it can *avoid* attack by meeting US demands.

It’s called the assurance problem — and it’s been a major obstacle to any deal since Trump left the JCPOA.

Iran complied with the JCPOA — but Trump broke the deal anyway.

If Iran expects Trump to break his promises, what incentive does it have to comply?

None. Zero. Bupkis.

We all know Trump’s threats of attack are credible. He has carried them out numerous times.

But Trump’s assurances that he’ll refrain from attacking Iran if it cooperates are completely non-credible.

And every new round of US attack makes it harder for the US to commit to restraint with Iran later, after it has given up its nuclear leverage.

The assurance problem is even worse because Trump’s demands seemingly shift by the hour. Even if Iran wanted to cooperate, how could it? Whatever counted as cooperation at time “t” might be disregarded at time “t+1,” because Trump is so erratic.

He can’t clearly and consistently articulate exactly what Iran needs to do to say “yes.”

Case in point: Trump’s demand in the State of the Union that Iran say those “secret words” that it would never get a nuclear weapon.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, literally said those exact words — and Trump bombed Iran anyway.

At this point, after bombing Iran during multiple rounds of diplomacy, I don’t know if there’s *anything* this administration can do to make its assurances credible. If it can’t, then there’s no viable diplomatic path forward.

Meaning, Trump fails to get any deal, eventually walks away, and Iran imposes tolls on Hormuz.

[Bonesy🇳🇿 @gingerandmilo]

WTF,,, UNBELIEVABLE
Government facing up to $5 billion bill over carbon credits, Treasury reveals https://t.co/2fDPiLwuDX

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

This is it. All the gloves are coming off. Prepare for a massive salvo like the very first day of the war. Except with more careful targeting of US assets and key allied infrastructure.

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨NEW: Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed to All Shipping, Warns Any Vessel Will Be Targeted

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the armed forces’ top operational command responsible for coordinating joint military operations, said:

🔹 “Following the criminal aggressions of the American enemy, and considering the launch of new attacks by the invading army of that country on areas in the south of Hormozgan province, from this moment, due to insecurity in the region, the Strait of Hormuz is declared closed for passage for all types of vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships.

🔹 “Any movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted.”

🔹 “The American claim regarding the passage of a ship through the strait is false,” the statement added, appearing to reference new IRGC Navy claims that two vessels attempting to violate the closure have been struck.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: US airstrikes have now hit the South Pars Gas Complex in Asaluyeh, Bushehr Province, the world's largest natural gas field, per initial reports.

[jo @jofromgreylynn]

‘The NZ Super Fund’s $140 million investment in Palantir Technologies is being targeted by New Zealand activists who are opposed to the company’s reported role in Israeli and US military conflicts.’ https://t.co/gyeY9Gc270