Bill Marino

Woody Johnson truther. #jetup

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

Awesome read. Aaron Glenn, I apologize.

[Ben Gretch @YardsPerGretch]

The Ravens executed a regular season overtime strategy last night, by taking ball first, that I wrote about last year. At this point, I think it is the straightforwardly optimal path.

I also think part of the confusion is (current) models probably miss this, because they don't account for the way the offense can manipulate the situation (despite acknowledging people who suggest models are missing something are wrong 99% of the time, because the models don't miss the thing).

(It could also obviously be modeled.)

And that's running your first drive as an intentionally clock-killing drive. It assumes success, but so does the strategy of taking ball second. (If both teams go three-and-out, you clearly wanted to have taken ball first.)

I do understand the element of knowing if you need to go for it on a fourth down on the second drive. I think that is overstated relative to the strategic flexibility of controlling overtime pace when you go first. This is entirely because of the 10-minute hard constraint on regular season overtime periods. It would not apply to postseason overtime decisions.

What happened last night is the Falcons had to use both of their overtime timeouts on defense to preserve time. They got the ball back with just under three minutes, and only the 2-minute stoppage, and it forced them to be one-dimensional.

On the broadcast, Collinsworth suggested kicking to force the Atlanta QB situation onto the field quicker. What Baltimore did attacked the Atlanta QB situation more; if Atlanta got ball first, they could've tried a run-based offense. They really couldn't do that with 2:50 and no timeouts.

Setting aside the specifics of Atlanta's QB situation, EPA models look at next-drive success, because that's crucial in football. What I'm suggesting is missed here is when a team executes like Baltimore did last night, the opponent's drive success takes a substantial hit because of the clock constraint.

A similar thing happened to the Packers last year, in their game that ended up a tie against the Cowboys, where the clock became a real constraint and put them in a bind in the final minute. They essentially had to abandon the run, and nearly lost, but had one second to kick a game-tying field goal.

Anyway, Baltimore executed this brilliantly last night, and more teams should take note. Kicking off gives your opponent the ability to execute this. The Falcons didn't necessarily run well last night, but they've been great on the ground in other recent games, and an alternate result last night where they had ball first could've been them executing a run-based offense that bled clock and put the Ravens in the situation they found themselves in, with not enough time to run a balanced offense and force to be one-dimensional and throw.

We're seeing longer and longer drives in a modern NFL hellbent on taking away explosives, and this is increasingly how TD drives are put together. It's a crucial part of the overtime coinflip decision.

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

Anyone else see Drake London get hurt on that Kyle Hamilton game sealing int? Looked like an ankle.

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

@Elite_Drafters Rachaad white RB12! Buy low! Ahh stat

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

I'm in denial but Nico Collins 100% tweaked his hamstring in practice today and will miss multiple weeks. Every single sign points to it.

[JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB]

Omarion Hampton had a 57% snap rate against the Cardinals, while Keaton Mitchell was at 31%. Hampton handled 57% of LA's rushes, Mitchell 19%. Hampton finished with 43 rushing yards. He had 49 after contact.

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

@jagibbs_23 Scroll. All the same color so nothing pulls my eyes. A lot of wtf is going on here. Asking for too much brain power

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

2026 My Guys List:

T Law - QB9
Tyler Shough - QB18🤡
Chris Olave - WR12
Tee Higgins - WR15
Parker Washington - WR30
De'Zhaun Stribling - WR55
Chase Brown - RB12
Travis Etienne - RB18
Deandre Swift - RB19
Brenton Strange - TE16

All ECR

Draft Jaguars, Saints, and Bengals.

[Evan Silva @evansilva]

NFC Team-By-Team Thoughts

Cardinals – Trey Benson cut. James Conner hurt. Tyler Allgeier Week 1 flex starter if Jeremiyah Love (ankle) doesn’t play.

Falcons – Michael Penix’s timeline to start keeps feeling closer. Week 1 even in play.

Panthers – Chuba Hubbard-Jonathon Brooks wars will probably yield no true victor due to bad QB/OL & committee approach that won’t go away.

Bears – Buying everyone. Offensive juggernaut + swinging-gate defense.

Cowboys – Javonte Williams beneficiary of unsettled backfield behind him. Javonte should have one of highest RB usage rates.

Lions – See Bears, but in a dome.

Packers – MarShawn Lloyd my most-drafted RB in best ball.

Rams – Several concerns RE: offensive efficiency repeat: OL, aging at most critical spots, regression for 2025’s outrageous rate stats.

Vikings – Justin Jefferson my scariest 2026 “fade.” (I’m dead even with his WR6 positional ADP but a few slots below in overall rankings and therefore never get him in drafts.)

Saints – Juwan Johnson most undervalued FF tight end coming off 77/889/3 season with Jordyn Tyson out indefinitely.

Giants – Najee Harris’ skill set overlaps with Cam Skattebo; 220+ lb, 4.6 types, pass-game functional. (Both off severe injury, too.) Interchangeable.

Eagles – Makai Lemon (hamstring) finally practicing. ADP has fallen far enough to draft him as priority bench stash.

49ers – Sounds like third-round rookie Kaelon Black is preferred RB stash behind CMC, who’s coming off career high in touches.

Seahawks – Rave reviews for Jadarian Price but looming return of Zach Charbonnet quiets upside. Seahawks obsessed with Charbonnet on pass downs, near GL.

Bucs – Chris Godwin (affordable in drafts) arguably most stable Bucs pass catcher with Emeka Egbuka battling toe injury, Ted Hurst pushing Jalen McMillan.

Commanders – Preseason signs point to Chig Okonkwo as true every-down TE. Quietly has 50+ catches in 3 straight seasons. Should be his career year.

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

Keenen Allen sending hate

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

I'll warn everyone who's new to this RB-RB or even RB-RB-RB shit. It ain't for the faint of heart. You will have the RB7, RB15 and RB17 at some point and feel like a dumbass. It's part of the process.

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Chase Brown's Designed Target Rate stood out to me most of all (and why I feel confident in having him ranked as my RB5)

He was seeing 5+ targets per game with only 13.8% of those coming on designed plays (the lowest of any top-10 RB target earner)

With the reports we've been hearing that Brown is lining up out side, training with Ja'Marr Chase, and how much Burrow wants to utilize him in the passing game

I really feel like he has more league-winning upside than any RB in the 2nd round this year

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

Jonathon Brooks is going to be a 6th round pick

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

@AndrewErickson_ Isaiah Likely

[Wolf of Roto Street @RotoStreetWolf]

James Cook with added receiving work truly had the upside to finish in the Top-3 RBs

OC Pete Carmichael is well trained in utilizing RBs in the pass game after working with Sean Payton for over a decade & Cook has the receiving goods

Strongly considering Cook > Taylor

[Bill Marino @BillMarinoFF]

Spot on

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

I don't think any of this is inconsistent with either a Tuten bull case or a Tuten bear case, for whatever that's worth. This is pretty much the median expectation I had.

Whether Tuten is a good or bad fantasy pick will depend on

1) who is catching screens

and 2) how dramatic the goal-line split ends up being relative to what the Jags did with Etienne/Tuten last year

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

1 in 41.8 million.

Using Aaron Schatz’s Adjusted Games Lost rankings, here is where the 49ers ranked in regular season injury burden each year:

2008: 6th healthiest
2009: 9th healthiest
2010: 4th healthiest
2011: 8th healthiest
2012: Healthiest

2013: 10th most injured
2014: 5th most injured
2015: 7th most injured
2016: 9th most injured
2017: 10th most injured
2018: 7th most injured
2019: 6th most injured
2020: Most injured
2021: 4th most injured
2022: 9th most injured
2023: 4th healthiest
2024: Most injured
2025: 5th most injured

The 49ers ranked among the NFL’s 10 healthiest teams for five consecutive seasons from 2008 through 2012.

Odds of that occurring in independent random rankings: approximately 1 in 336.

They then ranked among the NFL’s 10 most injured teams in 12 of the next 13 seasons.

Odds of that occurring in independent random rankings: approximately 1 in 124,640.

Odds of both sequences occurring consecutively, assuming every season is an independent random draw:

Approximately 1 in 41.8 million.

This is not a statement implying causality whatsoever.

What, if anything, materially changed between 2012 and 2014?

[Adam Levitan @adamlevitan]

Can see ways the Bears and Saints turn into shootout teams:
* Talented offense
* Strong offensive minds at head coach
* Bad defenses
* Lot of dome games (Saints)

Bears checked in at 31st in @BrandonThornNFL pass rush rankings.

[Jason Hamby @Jason_Hamby14]

I walked into the #Jaguars facility at 5:20am this morning.

The first guy I saw was Parker Washington, already stretching before his workout. that’s everyday for him.

[Matt Harmon @MattHarmon_BYB]

- Christian Kirk already hurt
- Ricky Pearsall dealing with swelling due to the PCL injury he suffered last year (sad)

De'Zhaun Stribling could very well open the season as the WR2 for San Francisco and has a really strong skill set for this offense.

Read up 👇

[Zach Savage @zaxavage]

“Fade Devon Achane because the Dolphins offense is projected to be bottom of the league”

totally fair considering last year Achane put up 20 PPG on an elite Miami offense that finished:

✅ 25th in Points
✅ 26th in Yards
✅ 28th in 1st Downs