Billare

Various sciences & conservative politics. Consumer, not a producer.

[Billare @Billare]

I use Twitter differently than most; a way of puzzling through in words reactions to things I read. Often, I'm not really talking to anyone.

[Billare @Billare]

the American lives protected by the the counter-terrorist intelligence the Kingdom shares. Remarkably Trump seems more rational, more thoughtful, less histrionic on this than many of those who judge him daily.

[Billare @Billare]

Is no one else bothered by the fact that important foreign policy decisions seem to rest on the pivot of a single remarkably well-liked man? Outrage from our political class was not forthcoming when we commit men & materiel to the proxy war in Yemen...

[Billare @Billare]

because Trump seems to have a larger moral universe under consideration than the various outraged pundits, who care about their journalist class, but not say the soldiers lives who protect the Kingdom, the workers who produce arms that the Kingdom buys..

[Billare @Billare]

So an 30% chance that perhaps some strongly Native American ancestor didn’t have their DNA show up in Warren. Or that ancestor could have been European White, and made no difference to the estimate. Probably comparing lengths of longest matching runs more error-free comparisons

[Billare @Billare]

I don’t think the overall tweetstorm this came from is good, because it shades the critical points it is trying to make by being indirect vs. insinuating. Here, I think this is trying to suggest that Warren’s inferred Native ancestry could be an underestimate of the true figure

[Billare @Billare]

because recombining segments are stochastically lost over time. But read the chart; simulations indicate at generation 6 transmission is nearly guarantee at 100%; at generation 10 it’s 30%. Taking the median there is a 100 - 70% = 30% chance the inferred % is an underestimate.

[Billare @Billare]

while the whiter members are interested in protecting Warren from Nasty Man Trump and proving Rs just don’t get science as usual.

[Billare @Billare]

This is incredible. It gets straight to the heart of the matter about what the problem was with Warren’s claim.

[The Intercept @theintercept]

Whether or not @SenWarren has some Native ancestry has never been the basis of any legitimate concern. Her video failed to address the only action for which she needs to answer: her role in enabling Harvard Law School to hold her out as a diversity hire. https://t.co/K0ALBCy1DN

[Billare @Billare]

It is so strange to find candid interrogation of an issue in the media when the Democrat is facing the fire. My hypothesis is this possible only because there is an actual split in the coalition: The “PoC” are deeply interested in policing their exclusivist claims to identity..

[Billare @Billare]

@jrwill9 The real bolster for her claim is her long shared haplotype block anyway, not the total contribution. I also am thinking the actual contribution must be a tight probability distribution around the pedigree fraction.

[Billare @Billare]

@jrwill9 This is correct, but tendentious. I don’t see where significant error would resist comparing like with like; naive pedigree relatedness & actual genomic contribution. Zimmer using a gotcha to distract from the op-Ed’s point.

[Billare @Billare]

@razibkhan @pegobry I use this pedigree contribution calculating a statistic, I think inbreeding coefficient

[Billare @Billare]

@razibkhan @pegobry Razib; there has to be a relation between the actual genomic contribution and the “classical calculation.” One; is it correct to call the classic calculation the expectation of 1? 2? Shouldn’t the classical have a name? Expected pedigree contribution? I know for a fact..

[AmishDude @TheAmishDude]

@Billare Warren did, in fact, claim that her grandfather forced her parents to elope because he was so racist against her mother's Cherokee background. Given the DNA test, it's pretty absurd.

[Billare @Billare]

@tamarawinter Finding novel identities is especially fashionable among Whites, as Greg Cochran has notes, who exploded from only recognizing their European backgrounds to being pleasingly multicultural in surveys in the span of a generation

[Billare @Billare]

So I was skeptical of the pro-Elizabeth Warren “fact-check” articles, which do the usual thing of correct claims that were never asserted, provide ultra-charitable explanations of the contentious issues... https://t.co/TE5xkELfD8...

[Billare @Billare]

@tamarawinter To the extent they have unrequited moral and remember financial restitution to be paid out, they are going to be wary of others encroaching on this valuable identity

[Billare @Billare]

@tamarawinter @razibkhan @jmrphy Charitable judgments would rule out blatant misrepresentation. But concerning self-delusion, sly misleading and/or opportunism are still on the table methinks.

[Billare @Billare]

@tamarawinter @razibkhan @jmrphy Per this post, she would have been legally identified as White even under Virginia’s one-drop-rule anti-miscegenation regime. https://t.co/ZP5rzrhfUs. Good enough for good-old-boys.