Billy

"Nothing is bullish or bearish but thinking makes it so"

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Iranian state-backed media has released footage of the MSC Francesca, which was interdicted and taken back to Iran by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGC-N) two weeks ago.

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@Rory_Johnston https://t.co/dLWWYSTq4u

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@conorsen https://t.co/3RCE6nbfqq

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

$GOOGL is testing a mobile real-estate ad unit that pulls live MLS listings through partner ComeHome with a “Request a tour” button that routes buyers directly to top-rated agents.

$Z is down 6% because Google is threatening Zillow’s traffic advantage and the lead-gen model built on users starting their search on Zillow rather than Google.

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@blockgraze https://t.co/SsObJJPOaZ

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@conorsen Fed is turning into the Supreme Court

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@Citrini7 Next they are going to ban crypto for the 100th time

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@0xKNL__ https://t.co/Z3xGCTWSov

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@tierrapartners Here's the chart I'm looking at for new home prices and the areas that are down the most YOY are the most impacted by less population from new immigrants...not sure it's THE factor but plays a significant role imo

[Billy @BillyDishman]

total units under construction. And agree on looking at it at the local level...I do think the lack of immigration is feeding somewhat into the weakness we see in certain housing markets like TX/FL/AZ

to your question, I'd say that's bc reducing illegal immigration doesn't impact single family housing sales that much bc they are less likely to purchase a house but eventually it drives a wedge b/t renting vs. buying which drives down new housing prices which is what we are seeing rn

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@tierrapartners so this would indicate that relative to expected population growth, we are at the highest level of units under contruction in the last 40 years

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@tierrapartners Appreciate the response. The way I've been looking at it taking units under construction historically adj. for housing size to get a "population served by new housing" and then looking at T+1 population (go forward assuming 1.5M pa growth)

Then I look at the ratio b/t the two

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@dampedspring https://t.co/XwKJgXIXKl

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

In comments in one of my posts I came across a person with no risk target for his portfolio and a view that his job is to maximize return without regard to risk. I said the job of every investor is to know what their risk tolerance is and hold a portfolio that takes roughly that risk. Here's my comment

Here's what I do. You decide if it's useful. There is a level of change in my wealth that I find to be 1) absolute noise. There is a level I find 2) slightly annoying. A level I find that 3) pisses me off but doesn't upset me. A level that that cause me to 4) loose sleep. A level that causes me to 5) act to ease the pain. Those are personal to me. But I assure you everyone has levels like this. I have learned that 4 and 5 are not something I am willing to experience. I have and I don't want to again. So I operate somewhere in the range of 3-4. Which for me place me at a risk target that I can manage and I acccept the expected return that it provides.

IF you have never experienced all these levels it's fair to say you aren't taking enough risk but ideally you don't have to experience them and can just imagine them. The risk of actually experiencing a level 5 event is it could turn into a level 6 event which could be a life changing loss or a level 7 which would be a loss so horrible you could not recover to anything like your current lifestyle. All of those risk levels are out there for you to experience and I encourage you to really understand that and hold a portfolio that takes risk but doesn't allow for 6-7 at all. Even an unlevered portfolio is shockingly levered when you consider your future liabilities of paying for your lifestyle and your families education etc.

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@cobie @gainzy222 $ETHU is a 2x ETH ETF and has assets of $2.6B. So that means they have $5.2B of ETH long exposure via CME

ETH CME total OI is ~$8B so the other side of the ETHU trade are the shorts that everyone keeps talking about

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@conorsen I didn't until I saw this chart. Pre-GFC, housing prices declined only 1 year post WW2

[Billy @BillyDishman]

Could be an interesting angle for a housing column. People always talk about the impact on lower steady state monthly NFP figures but not enough discussion on the impact on housing

Historically, population and units under construction typically match over a long time horizon

Right now units under construction are way different that they should be in a world where poulation growth is 0-500K people

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@conorsen Feel like an underrated housing point is the decline in immigration and that could be impacting TX, Southwest, and FL too

AEI put out a paper this month that showed that their estimate for US population growth this year is close to 0 people

https://t.co/iUvzUMcW8p

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@0xKNL__ daily gold supply at current prices is like $1B per day which is a lot
30%ish of demand is jewelry which at these prices is seeing some demand degradation so if global economy tips into recession, that demand dries up more and isn't overcome by investment / central bank demand

[Billy @BillyDishman]

"They don't ring the bell at the top"

[Billy @BillyDishman]

@SplitCapital @hedgedhog7 Lot of LPs were in the lockup period during 2022 and 2023 as they came in during 2021 / Q1 2022. So post lockup expiring, the crypto markets have done pretty well so think these drawdowns will test their resolve