Billy Kovanis

NYC/Sydney | Global Long/Short Equities |

[christopher joye @cjoye]

Antipodean Macro on the ugly ugly Aussie inflation data:

The more important CPI ex travel and ‘volatiles’ measure also rose +4.0% y/y (+4.1% y/y on a seasonally adjusted basis), which was in line with our forecast (of +4.1% y/y).
On the same basis, the +1.2% rise in 3m/3m terms was in line with our forecast and points to a significant risk that the RBA’s +0.8% q/q Q2 trimmed mean inflation forecast is much too low.

[mich🧸 @yourgirlmich]

it started off with a dip how did it end up like this

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@pmje73 Good time to look at select cyclicals (autos, powersports, rails, housing, FDX/UPS) & discretionary stocks (retail, IT hardware, etc) exc travel, to look for shorts on the back of a smoking gun that bulls pitch as a busted Q but ensues into a sustained decline over 12-18 mos

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@saxena_puru Shift from Auto 1.0 (volume x price ICE business) to Auto 2.0 (connected electric vehicles with recurring software services potential)

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@GHadjia Insane! Overall I think economists are saying 30% rent increases in NYC. Not obscene considering considering there were barely increases last year and the fact we’re at 8% inflation now. In select locations I wouldn’t be surprised to see 40-50% increases…

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

#NYC #rent prices are insane… I’m seeing avg 1 bedroom apts in NYC w no doorman priced at $4-5k a month… Seems like the perfect storm for rent increases given: peak of finance pay LY + ppl moving back to the city + ppl renewing their covid leases reducing supply… #inflation

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Powell: if we knew that buying $5 trillion in bonds, cutting rates to 0%, cheerleading a $6 trillion increase in national debt, & increasing the money supply by 40% would lead to higher inflation, sure, we would have hiked rates earlier. But who could have predicted such a thing?

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

$HOG guides above on 2022 revenue. Shares up 7%

[Nice tactical call from Morgan Stanley, on Feb 1]

[Austin Rief ☕️ @austin_rief]

YouTube Q4 revenue: $8.6B
Netflix Q4 revenue: $7.7B

YouTube content budget: ~$0
Netflix content budget: $14B

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

Bullish $SPOT: The ultimate audio de-frictionizer platform. Total subs should grow from 406mn to 1bn by 2030. Monetization & margin expansion from: pricing, advertising, podcasts, events. Renegotiating label take-rate is upside. Lots of optionality for only 2.5x fwd sales / 7x GP

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@ShaneOliverAMP Inflation in Aus should hit and stay at more than 4-5% later in 2022 as borders fully reopen. I’d bet rates go up and follow at a similar clip as the US. RBA is way behind the game IMO

[Mostly Borrowed Ideas @borrowed_ideas]

1/17 $SPOT 4Q'21 Update

If someone gave me the call transcript and press release a day before and asked me how do you think the market would react, I would probably say +5%?

In reality, stock went down 22% AH, then recovered to -10%. Investing is hard.

Let's dig in.

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

$FB Bear case staring directly at us. More competition for eyeballs leads to MAU declines w monetization headwinds. Meta spend could lead to $0 & we’re stuck w obsolete Fb & Insta. With that said, risk-reward at 18x PE prices risks; a successful handoff to the $meta is a home run

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

Google Search could be one of the greatest mousetraps ever built? Not only do I get that in $GOOGL, but I get: YouTube, which is larger and growing revs faster than Netflix, a thriving Cloud business gaining share and a free bet on autonomous driving. 23x fwd PE.

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@retaox Arguably one of the greatest business mousetraps ever built. Not only that, but investing in Google you get the following: YouTube which is larger and growing faster than Netflix, a thriving Cloud business gaining share and a free bet on autonomous driving!!

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@ecommerceshares Well said

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

MORGAN STANLEY: Earnings "will likely be a 'better than feared' event. .. management just needs to guide to flat EPS growth in 2022 to meet Consensus EPS of $3.92 .. Long-term secular concerns around growth now look adequately priced in .."

Ups $HOG to Equal Weight, $40 target

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@GavinSBaker Totally agree. I think we need another 5-10% hit to the mega caps to bring down the index val. For small cap cap growth, most are down 50% in 3 months & majority of the pain looks priced. Some incredible buying ops. Doubt faamg will provide same level of returns per last 10yrs.

[Billy Kovanis @BillyKovanis]

@GHadjia Spending $30bn on capex annually, majority of which is used for data centers is an insane amount of spend. FB is definitely positioning itself to be a large scale cloud provider for the Metaverse. I’m very bullish on mgt’s willingness to pivot the biz away from core fb/insta ads