Not on holiday yet so I'll allow myself one more thread...
The markets are crazy! NFT are just jpegs! Dog coins! Cat coins! Tesla ! GameStop!
Everyone is going to get burned! Don't they realize about discounted cash flows?!!! These people are ruining everything! Green energy?!
In WiM469, Larry Lepard (@LawrenceLepard) joins me for a banger conversation about #Bitcoin and gold as a check against inflation, US Debt to GDP, why Keynesian economics is flawed, how dishonest money corrupts society, Bitcoin as a transformative technology, and how fixing the money, fixes the world.
https://t.co/VmR1GDUagw
Here's an embedded version of the Broken Money video.
-An analysis of the past, present, and future of money, and how technology impacts it over time.
-How the current disequilibrium (transactions way faster than settlements) creates centralized and corrupted money clusters:
After studying #Bitcoin for:
1 hour - btc is a ‘cryptocurrency’
10 hours - the government will stop it
100 hours - btc is like digital gold
1,000 hours - btc is not ‘crypto’
10,000 hours - btc is an unstoppable force which frees humanity from control of the state
@OutdoorFinance El Salvador went from nowhere to being the safest country in Latin America, getting out of IMF debt, and massive economic growth because they bought some BTC.
Never underestimate the second order effects. #Bitcoin has a huge following from smart people.
When I listened to this episode of Joe Rogan with Andreas Antonopolous in 2016 it made sense because I was new to #Bitcoin
But now in 2024 we all can see that Andreas was 100% right. This is exactly what's happening in our society right now.
#Bitcoin is starting to dip its toes back into the orange hope/fear range of the NUPL.
First, the NUPL tells us that the lows for the cycle are in, and there's no looking back after the deep retrace into red capitulation.
After this happens, Bitcoin has always surged to yellow optimism/anxiety, and taken one or two final dips into orange hope/fear.
This is where we are now.
Most of Bitcoin's time will be spent in yellow, this development in orange, once completed, could be a final opportunity.
The model that almost perfectly called both 2021 #Bitcoin tops after it was created marks fierce resistance at blue layer 4.
Bitcoin ran into this twice at the recent highs, at 31 and 32k.
The model marks the current topmost price at $112,000, and the layer 6 top at $80,000. Both of which are increasing each and every week.
A break above layer 4 in most cases starts the journey to the cycle top, so it makes sense that would take some time.
Now is the moment to accumulate an await the inevitable break into the red layers!
I have created a brand new #Bitcoin price model based on my November 28th Cycle's Theory predictions:
The N28CT Price Model
It gives us the next cycle top price: 140k
Next cycle bottom price: 27k
And 2 cycles from now: 190k/36k
Later today I'll be showing you all about how it works and how it gets these numbers
Stay tuned for the full breakdown!
#Bitcoin is grinding through its 2nd phase as expected.
The 2nd and 3rd phases have historically been re-accumulation for those that missed the 1st phase of accumulation.
Now is NOT the time to get overly bullish or bearish.
Be patient & stack sats → retweet & bookmark ♻️🔖
White noise as background to increase focus during work bouts, or 40Hz binaural beats— both of which by the way are available at zero cost online via YouTube, etc., are among the more useful data-supported tools for increasing focus. They won’t cure ADHD but they can assist focus in meaningful ways.
$32k will be a strong magnet for $Bitcoin imho.
We now have confirmation of the early stages of a bull run. Let me explain why, in as clear and hype free terms as possible.
From a macro view:
#BlackrockETF was an interesting catalyst that reversed an otherwise inevitable push back down into the accumulation zone. It seems that it will have a domino effect, as many more major funds simultaneously applied for an ETF. It seems that retail is in the mindset of "front-running" institutions.
Powell has also clearly stated that crypto is an asset class with "staying power." Despite the ignorance of the SEC, dozens of countries and major institutions are quietly positioning themselves as we speak. Contrary to what some may believe, the US cannot, and will not dictate global crypto policy. The doors have already blown wide open.
From a technical view:
For months I have been saying that $25k is the level to watch. It is the upper boundary of an accumulation range that lasted for 274 days.
After weeks of grinding PA, last week we saw the retest after breakout. Clearly there has been significant strength after the pullback.
This break/retest also coincides with finding support at the 21 EMA for the second time in 5 months since breaking above (typically great buying opportunities during bull runs). In addition, we have seen it definitively break above the 200 WMA. As we know, this is also a very bullish sign in general.
Acceptance above $32k will bring us toward targets up around $37,500. This could take some time, but so far it seems the higher probability.
With #Ethereum and the alts, I have no idea tbh, but it seems that with $BTC dominance steadily on the rise (SEC woes) after breaking above a multi-year channel, Bitcoin will be the long play in the near term. Ethereum could play catch up and quickly run to $2k, so I wouldn't rule out that possibility. But as for degens: put your DeFi summer fantasies on hold until we see a real push up.
With all of that said, I would not be surprised to see a similar "shock event" to COVID, which would delay the bull run. It could also bring us back down near the lows of the previous accumulation range. Always be prepared for any/all outcomes.
If stocks go sideways from here, expect more upside for crypto in the near term. Even if they correct somewhat, this would be a healthy pullback. Even though the PA may not make sense from a macro view, we have to flow with what the market tells us. Ofc if some cataclysmic (manipulated) event induces a crash, then crypto will be susceptible.
Is this a place to be buying? Personally, I'm not. I wouldn't rule out a similar scenario to 2019, where we ping pong in a much broader range. Some of you probably remember how bullish everyone was when $BTC hit $13k in June '19...It could easily run to $40-50k, then dip back down much lower, given the geo-political and economic climate we are facing.
Just being real. I'll get back to sharing more scalps soon.
If you found value, like it and share. Many thanks frens.
A SIMPLE crypto strategy to maximize profits in Q3 2023:
1. #bitcoin should be the main focus. It MUST pave the way for this bull run, which means alts will take a back seat for now. The megaphone pattern below is what banks/institutions are using to position. Next major target is $37,500.
2. $BTC is the obvious long play as long as ETH/BTC continues it's steady decline. This will continue until the SEC situation changes/improves. It may take some time. If it breaks beneath range lows shown, I'd be looking for it to find support in the shaded zone. That would likely coincide with $BTC starting to cool off after an explosive surge.
3. Once $ETH/BTC finds support, rotations into $ETH and the blue chip alts (MATIC, BNB, etc.) can occur. They will run first. When they cool off, mid-low cap alts (such as those in my report) will do their 10-100x. I don't see this happening until the SEC either backs down or introduces reasonable regulation.
Remember that you can make just as much money longing BTC as alts, given that you understand how to manage risk with stops and use proper leverage.
In the short term, notice how $BTC is consolidating above May highs. It is also finding support at EMA 12/21 on the 4H, which is common during a healthy uptrend. This is a VERY similar pattern to what we saw around the 16th of March, after rising to retest $25k.
Please like/share if you found value. Video reviews returning in early July.