Shorts are piling into this market on the Warsh headlines, and they're about to get run over.
Look at what actually happened at Jackson Hole. Warsh gave one hawkish line about inflation moving "at sufficient speed," and by Monday the Fed funds futures market had rate hike odds sitting near 60%. Gold sold off. Asian equities dropped. Everyone treated it like the AI rally was finally about to meet its reckoning.
Except the 10-year sits at 4.66% and the S&P is still up 13% on the year, sitting at highs it set back in June. If this hawkish pivot were real, that spread wouldn't hold. Bond yields don't climb into a genuine tightening cycle while equities shrug it off like nothing happened. That's not what a market pricing in real restraint looks like. That's a market that doesn't believe the threat.
Here's the part nobody wants to say out loud with an election year bearing down. Scott Bessent is sitting on a Treasury cash pile the size of a mid-sized economy, and his people have already confirmed it's available to manage long-end borrowing costs. You don't build that kind of dry powder for no reason. Warsh gets to sound tough on inflation at Jackson Hole, satisfies the hawks, gives everyone their headline about "sufficient speed", and then Treasury quietly does the work of keeping financial conditions loose enough that the AI-driven rally never actually breaks. Rate rhetoric for the base, liquidity for the market. Both sides get what they need heading into midterms.
I've watched this movie before. Talk hawkish, act dovish, let the market do the political work for you. Nobody in this administration wants to walk into November with the Nasdaq down 15% off its highs. So the shorts who took Warsh at face value and piled in on the hike narrative are exactly the guys getting squeezed when CPI and PPI come in soft enough in the next few weeks to let him "discover" that patience is warranted after all. Watch NVIDIA. Up 22% year to date already, and it's the most obvious tell for what happens if Warsh holds at 3.75% on September 16 instead of pulling the trigger.
The setup writes itself. Hawkish jawboning creates the short interest. Treasury liquidity and a soft data print create the squeeze. Whoever bet against this administration's willingness to protect the wealth effect into an election is about to find out how expensive that bet is.
$MSTR is aiming for a credit upgrade.
The USD reserve is at an all time high of $4.65 billion.
Back in October, S&P Global stated that they wanted to see improved USD liquidity before considering raising the rating.
Strategy have delivered.
The future is bright.
@nateheinrich joined us on the BitCorn Podcast this week. Find out how he's unlocking liquidity for Ag land and equipment via tokenization on @base. We're excited for @landledgerco.
Listen to The BitCorn Podcast on Spotify for Creators https://t.co/efK1hFv1cI
Check out our new Podcast based on @moneyordebt Stephen Perrenod's research on Bitcoin Power Law and predictable oscillations.
The Power Law: From Math to the Grain Desk https://t.co/HEL3csUNTC via @YouTube
@BenJustman Indeed.
Oddly enough, I've not observed a big crossover with other high-risk activities.
Farmers were the first in the low-time preference game.
Put all your money on black (dirt)...
pray for rain.
New piece: The Commodity-Bitcoin Convergence
I ran another Power Law analysis on soybeans, wheat, crude oil, and copper after having done corn. More limited dataset, but...
Result: all five exponents cluster between 4.73 and 5.12. Add Perrenod's gold at 5.22.
Mean across all six: 5.04. Standard deviation: 0.15.
🧵👇
🌽 BITCOIN’S PRICE AGAINST CORN HAS FOLLOWED A POWER LAW FOR 13 YEARS
New research from BitCorn founder @KevinKimle suggests the Corn-Bitcoin exchange rate follows a power law with an exponent of 5.03 and an R² of 0.91 across nearly 13 years of data.
The study tracks how many bushels of corn it takes to buy 1 Bitcoin. Since 2013, that ratio has followed a remarkably consistent mathematical curve, similar to research showing Bitcoin’s price relative to gold also follows a power law.
Bitcoin is appreciating against dollars while steadily gaining purchasing power against real-world commodities.
Kimle found that Bitcoin’s performance against corn closely mirrors its performance against gold. Gold-Bitcoin follows a power law exponent of 5.22, while Corn-Bitcoin comes in at 5.03.
The model also uses Z-scores to identify periods when Bitcoin appears unusually cheap or expensive relative to corn. The current reading is a low -0.68.
That suggests corn is modestly “expensive” relative to Bitcoin, meaning producers exchanging corn revenue for BTC are receiving slightly more sats than the long-term trend would predict.
The study concludes that Bitcoin appears to be absorbing purchasing power from commodities at a predictable structural rate, regardless of whether the benchmark is corn, gold, wheat, soybeans, or other agricultural products.
For capital-intensive industries like farming, Kimle argues Bitcoin may be less of a speculative asset and more of a long-term savings technology capable of preserving and growing purchasing power across generations.
Bitcoin Study Sessions goes to the farm with @KevinKimle & @BitCornCael.
This is a follow-up to our previous conversation about Bitcoin as the cover of Farm Journal magazine in December.
Producers are taking notice. Skyrocketing land cost, inputs increasing double and triple digit percentages...and commodity prices roughly the same as 50 years ago.
Leverage wrecks operations, but the only way to play the government game is leverage. Add debt, expand, aim for economies of scale. The big get bigger by eating the small.
Folks in ag are pulling out the needle, the drip-drip of subsidies meant to keep them just solvent enough for another round of refinancing.
That million dollar line of credit you're paying 7.5% on - why not dump it in STRC or SATA, make 4-5% on it while it sits?
Instead of setting a new high-water mark on that next quarter of ground, why not buy bitcoin and let it grow?
Future is bright for producers who figure this out.
Many thanks to @kevinkimle and @bitcornCael for having your humble hosts @lucasmaddy and @thewholeframe on their excellent pod, the Bitcorn Podcast. (Link below).
These guys' podcast is criminally overlooked. They are bringing the Ag revolution to Bitcoin--and doing so with substantive topics that go beyond price action or the viral topic du jour.
They have episodes on Bitcoin & Autonomous Grazing Barns, Bitcoin Bills and Agricultural credit, and much more.
Add this podcast to your routine and give these guys a follow.
And check out the latest episode with us: Why Bitcoin Is The Most Natural Money We've Ever Had — According to Thinkers and Farmers
Link below ⤵️
The American banks scored a spectacular own goal today.
In lobbying aggressively to suppress stablecoin yield, they have inadvertently pushed capital towards Bitcoin backed fixed income products that offer yields they cannot compete with.
The Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee today. 15-9.
The most contentious issue was stablecoin yield. The American Bankers Association reportedly contacted Senate offices more than 8,000 times in a single weekend to gut the compromise language.
Why?
Because yield-bearing stablecoins compete directly with bank deposits. They want to keep paying you 0.1% while earning 4% on your money.
The compromise bans passive yield on simply holding stablecoins but allows activity-based rewards. The banks won that battle.
However, they will not have the last laugh.
By suppressing yield on stablecoins, they have pointed millions of people toward $STRC and $SATA. 11.5% and 13% yield respectively.
Bi-monthly and daily dividends, backed by the hardest asset ever created.
The banks won the battle but have no idea they are losing the war.
Bitcoin isn’t just fighting market volatility.
It’s fighting an identity crisis.
Core v30 quietly removed long-standing data limits.
BIP-110 pushes back to protect Bitcoin’s monetary core.
This isn’t dev drama.
This is: What is Bitcoin allowed to become?
Money?
Or “everything chain”?
Because nodes decide. Not headlines. Not miners.
And the incentives shaping that future matter more than most people realize.
I broke it all down here 👇
(Core v30 vs BIP-110 deep dive)
🔗 [https://t.co/WAom6bV1iO]
@LukeDashjr@ToneVays A deep research report examining whether the "technical explanations" for removing Bitcoin's 80-byte OP_RETURN limit constitute gaslighting, as Luke Dashjr claims:
https://t.co/XmGav1OPcV