There are Bitcoiners out there who couldn't handle six months of gold going up.
Their conviction melted as they watched gold have what is a normal positive year for the corn (after Bitcoin had two of them back to back btw).
Peter Schiff has felt like this for 17-years, and will be back to feeling like that soon enough. He literally grew silver hair waiting for silver to go up.
If you're feeling particularly salty, go buy a gold coin, you'll put the top in, and then we can get back to regular programming.
Both coins are going considerably higher, own them both.
Fiat has no bottom.
Flywheel:
If BTC outpaces their cost of capital, it’s massively accretive. An up-listing could make it exponential.
1️⃣5️⃣ The next 26 months decide whether Metaplanet becomes: 🇯🇵 Japan’s MicroStrategy — or another over-levered footnote in BTC history.
Either way, it’s the boldest corporate Bitcoin bet since 2020.
— 🧵 End
#Metaplanet #BTC #Bitcoin #MSTR #CryptoFinance #Japan #UpListing
🧵 How Metaplanet Could Reach 210,000 BTC by 2027 — and Why a U.S./Japan Up-Listing Could Supercharge the Flywheel
1️⃣ Bitcoin sits near $106,000. Metaplanet (OTC: MTPLF) closed around $2.77 — a micro-cap with macro ambition: → 210,000 BTC by end-2027. Current stack: 30,823 BTC. They need ~179,000 BTC more in 26 months — about ¥2.7 T ($18 B) of firepower. Impossible? Not necessarily. 🧩👇
2️⃣ They don’t need to raise ¥2.7 T all at once — they need to engineer compounding capital.
Think MicroStrategy × Japanese fixed-income innovation: Preferreds + BTC-backed credit + convertibles + partnerships. A capital flywheel that recycles as Bitcoin appreciates.
Here’s how:
3️⃣ Tier 1 — Preferred Shares (Base Layer) Issue ¥400–600 B in “bond-type” preferreds (6–9% yield) to Japan’s yield-hungry investors. Use proceeds to buy ~30 K BTC — which becomes collateral for future borrowing.
🇯🇵 Japan loves fixed income. These yield-paying preferreds could sell out fast.
4️⃣ Tier 2 — BTC-Backed Credit Lines Use BTC as collateral. Borrow JPY at 2–4% with 40–50% LTV. Buy more BTC.
As BTC rises → collateral value expands → borrow again. A recursive flywheel:
1 yen of equity → 2–3 yen of BTC exposure over time.
5️⃣ Tier 3 — Global Convertibles & Warrants Tap overseas capital (Euroyen, Singapore, Hong Kong, or U.S.) with BTC-NAV-linked convertibles. Similar to MSTR’s 2021 playbook — but yen-denominated. Adds ¥500–800 B capacity and 40–50 K BTC.
6️⃣ Tier 4 — Institutional Co-Investments Partner with insurers, pensions, and sovereign funds seeking BTC yield exposure. Metaplanet manages BTC; institutions supply capital. Expands exposure another 20–30 K BTC, on- and off-balance sheet.
7️⃣ The Flywheel in Motion Raise → Buy BTC → Collateralize → Borrow → Buy More → BTC Rises → NAV Rises → Repeat.
Executed over 4–6 tranches (2025–2027), this could realistically reach ~210 K BTC at ~2.5× effective leverage.
8️⃣ Potential Up-Listing Catalyst 🚀 Metaplanet is exploring a U.S. exchange listing while also seeking a Tokyo main-market tier upgrade. That’s huge.
A U.S. up-listing invites global institutional flows (ETF crossover buyers, BTC funds).
A TSE Prime move boosts liquidity and credibility in Japan.
Both increase capital-raising power — expanding the “raise” leg of the flywheel.
Imagine issuing $1 B convertibles at $5–6/share instead of $2.77 OTC — that’s the difference between accretion and dilution.
9️⃣ Accretive or Dilutive?
✅ Accretive if:
BTC rises faster than cost of capital (6–9% prefs, 2–4% debt).
NAV/share climbs faster than share issuance.
Convertibles strike above NAV (BTC per share increases).
⚠️ Dilutive if:
BTC stagnates or drops.
Funding costs > BTC appreciation.
Equity raised below NAV compresses mNAV/share.
🔑 1️⃣0️⃣ Key Metric: BTC per Common Share Forget raw BTC totals. If BTC per share rises, holders win (accretive). If it falls, dilution bites. It’s the same flywheel that took MicroStrategy from 0.6 → 0.96 BTC/share in 3 years.
1️⃣1️⃣ Japan Is the Perfect Arena:
Ultra-low interest rates 🏦
Retail obsession with yield 💴
Weak yen → BTC hedge ⚖️
Regulators open to digital-asset-linked securities 📜
Metaplanet can weaponize this — becoming Japan’s MicroStrategy, powered by domestic yield seekers and global up-listing flows.
1️⃣2️⃣ Illustrative Roadmap:
Date
Action
BTC Added
Cum. BTC
Q4 2025
¥200 B prefs
+13 K
43.8 K
Q2 2026
BTC credit loop
+20 K
63.8 K
Q4 2026
Convertibles
+25 K
88.8 K
Q2 2027
Institutional JV
+40 K
128.8 K
Q4 2027
Final leverage turn
+80 K
208.8 K
1️⃣3️⃣ If executed with discipline — keeping LTV < 40%, timing tranches in BTC dips, and leveraging an up-listing to raise above NAV — Metaplanet could hit 210 K BTC while increasing NAV/share. That’s accretive wealth creation, not dilution.
1️⃣4️⃣ TLDR Metaplanet’s 210 K BTC plan isn’t a meme — it’s a capital-compounding loop:
📊 Preferreds → 🔁 BTC Leverage → 💵 Convertibles → 🤝 Institutional JVs → 🚀
Most don’t realize 🇺🇸 can buy 1,000,000 #Bitcoin any day now….
Here’s how 👇
The moment the U.S. govt starts buying #Bitcoin from giants like BlackRock or MSTR, the monetary paradigm cracks. ⚖️ Legal. 💰 Deficit-proof. 📈 Supply-capped.
When the world’s largest debtor buys the hardest money, history flips.
1️⃣ The U.S. can legally buy Bitcoin — even from companies like MSTR or BlackRock. Current shareholders would receive a premium per share based on agreement with the underlying treasury company and the owner of the money printer (the US government)
2️⃣ Treasury already holds seized BTC.
3️⃣ Buying more doesn’t require mining — just authorization.
4️⃣ A sovereign buyer = digital gold moment.
5️⃣ Fiat vs. scarcity becomes fiat and scarcity.
Most aren’t prepared for or even realize that between BlackRock (iBit) and Strategy (MSTR) they owned a combined 1,340,000+ Bitcoin with the purchases not slowing down….
How hard would it be for the U.S government to come in and purchase a smooth 1,000,000 from these 2 sole entities?
Checkmate.
Here’s the chart 📈 showing Metaplanet’s potential stock price if they reach 150K–210K BTC and trade at a 3× or 5× premium to book value.
•X-axis = Bitcoin price ($250K → $1M)
•Y-axis = Metaplanet stock price ($)
•Each line shows a different BTC holding level (150K vs 210K) and valuation multiple (3× vs 5×).
This gives you a clear picture of how the stock price scales with Bitcoin.
——————————————
Opportunity never feels like opportunity. Study the 2001-2018 AMZN chart.
MTPLF/3350 supercharged with Btc… will hit similar metrics (most likely) within half the time.
In comparison to Amazon’s time frame to make that large move….
17 years 👉let’s say Metaplanet moves in 2x the speed of AMZN (supercharged by BTC) 👉8.5 years (2033 time frame).
Wouldn’t be surprised if occurred by end of 2030 with Simon going from 30,823 👉 210,000 Btc by end of 2027.
210,000 Bitcoin price at $500,000 per token (conservative 2030 target 🎯)
The math:
210,000 (# of potential Bitcoin holdings) * $500,000 (potential BTC target) = 1.05e11 or $105B Net Asset Value
Set mNav to 1.0 (no premium to stock price) note: highly unlikely going to be the case with Metaplanet getting ready to roll out preferred vehicles.
$105B/total share count
Present day is ~1.2 B shares. Let’s dilute by 2x 👉2.4B shares.
$105B/2.4B= $43.75 share price
Thesis:
Almost ~12x increase in stock price to $43.75. Gave no premium to stock (only 1.0 mNav)
Note:
If you consider a typical “big company” inside the S&P 500 (not super high growth, but not pure commodity/asset play), its P/B might be ~4‑5×. That’s like a 300‑400% premium over book value.
If it’s in a high growth sector, it might trade at 5‑10× or more (i.e. +400% to +900% or more).
AND i diluted shares by 2x over a 5 year window going from share count of ~1.2B👉2.4B.
Therefore—-$44 dollars by 2030 is extremely conservative… issue a lower end 5x mNav for high growth sector (ie. Bitcoin stocks) takes $44 👉$220 per share by same time frame with 5 mNav (multiple Net Asset Value) premium to the underlying.
And that’s only Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2030— extrapolate to $1 million, $5 million, $10 million dollars per token-expand the 5 year time horizon… Metaplanet’s returns makes what Amazon did over that 17 year window look like child’s play.
Once again, Opportunity never feels like opportunity.
There will be biblical levels of disbelief when bitcoin rally’s to all time highs, the banana candle begins, treasury companies go vertical and retail begins to get fomo. This probably happens in the next 3 months. I’m mentally and physically prepared for this. Are you?
@adam3us talking public company #Bitcoin adoption.
“Eventually all companies will be a bitcoin treasury company.”- Adam Back
Corporate adoption is happening before your eyes.
Banks are coming.
Sovereigns are coming.
The world 🌎 is coming for $BTC
There’s no slowing down
this 🚂