there will be no more #altseason.
There will be #popcornseason where coins will see a brief rise and then the pump will stop and they will die
#bitcoin
Notice how quiet the permabulls are lately? I have.
I'm observing it as a sentiment indicator. Nothing more.
Now, what I think will happen is this:
$BTC will rebound, but less-so than the last time. It may make it into the low $70k's (my guess is $70k-$73k) before getting rejected back down to $60k and below (most likely scenario, imo).
The 200-day moving average could provide some resistance for a second time, but once we get up into that region it's time to watch for a reversal (imo, of course).
But if the price gets above $70k, you'll start noticing some confidence returning to the currently-quiet permabulls. That's when you know the market is about to pivot downward again.
We are getting closer to the end of the bear market and I will be glad when it's over, but it ain't over yet. A few more months to go, most likely. Bottoming is a process that takes some time.
I've drawn the approximate paths I consider most likely. It's a rough sketch-- not laser precise.
The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.
Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.
It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.
A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.
So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.
The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.
๐จ NOBODY IS READY FOR THIS SCENARIO
I told you every Bitcoin cycle follows the same script:
Euphoria โ Denial โ Panic โ Opportunity
And now we're entering the stage where confidence disappears.
The plan is simple:
$63K โ $48K โ $72K โ $35K
That's where fear peaks.
That's where weak hands capitulate.
And that's where the next bottom forms.
Reminder:
I called the $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025.
I'll call the next major bottom too.
Follow and turn notifications on.
Don't become exit liquidity.
SILVER/M3 โ silver has not yet fully broken out against M3. The current correction is in the process of testing the trend line that connects the 1974 interim top to the 2011 top.
If and when this ratio breaks out, we can expect silver will see a relative rise in value comparable to the late 1970s.
Above this line, silver could rise by hundreds of percent.
๐๐ Chart by request of @SilverDegen
Buy silver, do nothing ๐ง๐ผโโ๏ธ๐ฅ
For the good of the order ๐ซก
I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes for another lower high.
This'll make permabulls go loud exactly like last month.
Then, Bitcoin will nuke to new lows in Q3, which will coincide with the 4-year bottom.
Good Luck with those "BTC to 10M USD" dreams.
@saylor is going to be the great villain in this Crash.
He will be crushed.
People really don't analyze....!
Enjoy the BTC Bounce.
@brianjang34@ndcubsguy At this point of time, I am not sure. I will need to see where they make the bottom. Redraw charts and then make inference. For now, $ZEC is going to 75$, so the tiny privacy coins are going to get hammered a lot more.
Silver ๐ฅ โ $70.37 โ finally testing the yellow lines ๐
From this past weekendโs write-up ๐๐
โโฆthatโll give silver its final scary-looking-but-still-higher-low from $61 at $68-$70 along the October 2025 trend line range.โ
We shall see if it holds ๐ซก
$BTC will have the lowest weekly candle close since 2024.
Bearish W pattern continues to playout in real-time.
Longer-term targets 4 & 5 still remain. 2022 bear market hit both of these targets.
Is this time different?
$BTC roadmap:
H-L-HH-LL broke up and confirmed a BOS.
First buy zone: left shoulder near $60K .
Second buy zone: $53.9K -$56K with liquidity, order block & Bitcoin Realized Price.
$38K -$42K = aggressive accumulation zone.
$16,500,000 Prize Pool: https://t.co/TuWf8qnRgr
#BTC