Sea₿az

@ZynxBTC I learned that people pretending to have sold btc during the bull and posting about it in the bear usually have gambled away everything. They’re still looking for validation they did well, but in reality they are back to square one.

Who to follow

BoxerNFT

@MyWhiteBoxerNFT

Must haves: SOL: $DUKO - @dukocoin; @TheCultofCults ETH: @GodHatesNFTees

JacobG🟪🐶🪧👀

@JacobG_Crypto

NFTs and crypto 💰=🎾🪧🗽🐻��🟪🐶🍎

Net

@NetBent

Blood-bound to @TheCultofCults ⛧ | GodHatesNFTees Maxi | My wallet is a relic. My faith, unshaken.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

2 months ago

@AdamBLiv Mixing a deep ITM/ATM 2028 strike with a slightly nearer 2027 or a bit OTM 2028 to reduce my timing risk and give more flexibility to roll or trim if MSTR overshoots early.

246

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

2 months ago

@SaniExp Must be password of one of the wallets?

979

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

3 months ago

@TFTC21 @anasalhajji 😂😂😂 most retarded thing I’ve read in a while.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

3 months ago

@Dearme2_ Surfing. It’s that simple really. You, a board and the force of nature. Nothing else.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

3 months ago

@_Checkmatey_ You’re the only on X that still spreads solid btc signal.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

3 months ago

@_Checkmatey_ 👏👏👏

Bitcointje retweeted

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

@_Checkmatey_

3 months ago

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of). Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days. We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model. Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken... ...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on. Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie. We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear. In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us. The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor). There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise. The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs. Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck. The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%. The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move. This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats. If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day. Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand. A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk. This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin. Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

_Checkmatey_'s tweet photo. Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of).

Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days.

We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model.

Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken...

...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on.

Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie.

We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear.

In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us.

The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor).

There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise.

The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs.

Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck.

The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%.

The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move.

This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats.

If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day.

Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand.

A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk.

This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin.

Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

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Sea₿az @Bitcointje

3 months ago

@caprioleio Lol a few weeks late, everyone moved on.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

4 months ago

Took me a day to get @openclaw running on my old laptop but I got there in the end! Just scratched the surface but this is mind blowing. One of those aha moments for me. @steipete 🦞

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

4 months ago

@Bitcoin_Teddy I would be worried if the volatility was gone. The way it behaved over the last year or so worried me way more than this little bit of violence.

Sea₿az @Bitcointje

4 months ago

Right I’m back to buying $MSTR again. I only see people complaining so no need for any further technical analysis. “I buy when you cry”…never lets you down.