🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social

Former CIA officer. Compulsive early adopter, AI entrepreneur, crypto enthusiast, amateur musician, world traveler. Слава Украïнi! 🇺🇦🌻

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

Things are going to get worse before they get better.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

The US naval blockade is definitely biting, and Iranian crude exports are cratering, but the street is completely misreading the mechanics here.

Iran's oil export engine is nothing but a massive, structural money-and-logistics laundering matrix. On the physical side, the whole game is evading US eyes to scrub Iranian barrels and make them look completely kosher on paper.

The second these tankers clear the Strait of Hormuz or hit the Indian Ocean, they flip the switch and turn off their AIS. They’ll even manually paint over or mask the hull numbers to stay invisible to satellite tracking.

The real action happens via STS transfers in the EOPL or UAE, bleeding the cargo into un-sanctioned dark fleet.

While doing this, they doctor the Bill of Lading to wipe the origin clean, magically re-christening Iranian crude as Malaysian Blend or Omani barrels.

Those barrels eventually show up at the doorsteps of Shandong Teapots in China to discharge. That’s exactly why Beijing's official import prints show a massive spike in Malaysian volumes, while Iranian imports look like zero.

Obviously, standard trade finance rails like SWIFT and USD clearing are dead in the water. To bypass this, Tehran runs a bulletproof shadow banking network.

They’ve layered dozens of shell companies across Dubai, Hong Kong, and Turkey. Domestic Iranian networks, like the Amin Exchange, act as the central bank for these offshore front accounts.

The tape settles in RMB or AED, never greenbacks. Once a teapot wires cash to a shell account, the funds are instantly fractured and routed across multiple front profiles via Hawala style to completely blind any tracking.

When cash routing hits a brick wall, they just pivot to straight-up barter—clearing the oil bill in exchange for Chinese refined products, industrial machinery, consumer goods, or military hardware components.

This entire clunky setup creates a massive lag in the cash conversion cycle. Moving from Iranian loading docks, steaming dark at low speeds, floating in international waters waiting for an STS window, forging the papers, and finally getting the teapots to clear customs takes a solid 60 to 90 days.

Even when the teapots pay up, washing that money back through UAE and Hong Kong shells until it turns into spendable dry powder (or hard goods) for Tehran or the IRGC takes another 60 to 90 days.

Bottom line: Iran is running on a 3 to 6 month delay from the time the oil leaves the ground to when they can actually spend the cash.

This duration risk and the structural discount blow out even wider whenever the US drops a combined hammer—like the Economic Fury campaign—targeting not just the dark fleet, but the financial nodes and clearing desks in Hong Kong and the UAE at the same time.

Every sweep locks up accounts and forces them to rebuild their routing from scratch.

So the liquidity hitting Iran's balance sheet today is cash from oil traded months ago. Since they're still clearing out the oil on water floating outside the Strait, it’s going to take months before their actual financial runway gets cut off.

But the real macro question everyone is missing is this: these guys already proved they can survive on zero exports during the COVID pandemic. Why is everyone so sure this cycle plays out differently? Who breaks first under the weight of time—Tehran or Washington?

That’s the real chart worth watching.

#oott #iran

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

Counterpoint: He doesn’t really tho

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Sam Altman tells Bernie Sanders he wants to advocate together on the public having equity in AI companies, per AP

[Joseph Miscimarra 🇺🇸 @jmisci]

This week I came across the obituary of a photographer named David Plowden. I was unfamiliar with his work, but decided to browse his website after reading that he specialized in photos of trains and industry.

I’m not much of an art guy, but these photos are astonishing. (1/4)

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

@aeberman12 I really like your work Art but this puzzles me. What is the point of this thought experiment? Are you suggesting that this is something the WH is actively considering?

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

There is a well-documented pattern to the first Trump administration. The people who worked in it stayed quiet while employed, then the moment they were fired, sat down and wrote a book. Bolton. Esper. Mattis. Tillerson. The consistent theme: the man wanted to bomb things. Iran. North Korea. Venezuela. Mexico, on at least one occasion that we know of. The adults in the room spent considerable energy preventing a nuclear confrontation because the President had seen something on Fox News.

That was Term One. Term Two is different.

The adults are gone. What replaced them is a collection of individuals who in any previous era of American governance would not have been trusted with the photocopier code.

Picture the scene. The President announces he has an idea. He is enthusiastic. He uses hand gestures. The people around the table look up from their shoes and think, in unison: sure, sounds great.

Nobody pushes back. Nobody has a map. Nobody asks what happens to global oil supply when you bomb the Persian Gulf, or what Mexico does when American special forces cross the border, or whether Greenland’s population has any opinion on being purchased against their will.

Nobody knows, because the hiring criteria for this White House had nothing to do with knowing things.

In Term One, the grownups bought time. They slow-walked the paperwork. They prevented catastrophe through sheer bureaucratic friction.

In Term Two, there is no friction. There is only nodding. And under the table, at least three senior officials are quietly Googling “where is Iran” on their phones. One of them has spelled it “I-ron” and is now reading a five-star review of a steam iron on Amazon. He finds it very informative.

He is the Secretary of Defense.

[Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour]

"The Iranian negotiation style is generally known in the world as the ‘bazaar style,’ which means continuous and tireless bargaining,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in his 2025 diplomatic memoir. “This method is a process of interaction that requires great patience and time,” and thus, “he who gets tired and bored quickly will lose.” https://t.co/6RPjkzFCdg

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

@michaeldweiss 🤨🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

Those officials had better avoid open windows for the foreseeable future

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Russia finance officials tell Putin war spend is unaffordable.

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

@JasonMBrodsky Can you blame them 😂

[weird medieval guys @WeirdMedieval]

man and his dog, england, 14th century

[TheSteadyState @steadystate2025]

Lawyers, Guns & Money: Look at this and the "Slush Fund" case together: a potentially coordinated effort to both rehabilitate leaders of violent paramilitary organizations involved in January 6 and create a billion-dollar funding stream outside congressional appropriations and oversight that could reward and sustain networks personally loyal to Trump, including those very same organizations.

[Fľøkï @Dee_Floki]

Brutalism in Armenia.

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

If we’re honest it should be a 3 dollar bill 😂

[Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound]

The most accurate inflation gauge isn’t CPI. It’s the size of the bills they start printing.

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

This is the way.

[Frenkie_Woody @Frenkie_Woody]

Nel 1984, la celebre serie TV Miami Vice scelse come auto per i protagonisti la rara Ferrari 365 GTS/4 Daytona Spyder.

Tuttavia, per evitare di danneggiare l'originale durante le scene d'azione, la produzione utilizzò la vettura vera solo nel pilot, sostituendola poi con una replica costruita sul telaio di una Chevrolet Corvette C3.

Quando Enzo Ferrari scoprì l'inganno, andò su tutte le furie per l'impudenza del plagio.
Contattò immediatamente la produzione e impose un accordo categorico:
la distruzione immediata della replica in cambio della fornitura gratuita di due Ferrari originali per le riprese.

La produzione accettò.
Da Maranello partirono due nuovissime Testarossa bianche (colore scelto per risaltare nelle scene notturne), che divennero l'icona della serie.
La falsa Daytona, invece, venne fatta saltare in aria con un missile nella prima puntata utile.

Con questa mossa, Ferrari eliminò il falso e ottenne un ritorno d'immagine straordinario negli Stati Uniti.

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

Mad props to the Lamborghini social media team 🏎️

[Lamborghini @Lamborghini]

Proud to keep you dreaming.

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

This seems…important

[Christian Keil @pronounced_kyle]

This is wild... Russia seems to be threatening a *commercial* satellite that provides imaging services to Ukraine:

▸ starting about two weeks ago, Russia started maneuvering five (!) of their classified satellites to the same orbital inclination as the ICEYE satellite

▸ these burns were big, on the order of 100 m/s, clearly using chemical propulsion given the speed of the burns — very expensive and deliberate maneuvers

▸ as of last Friday, all five Russian satellites are now co-planar, at ~97.8° inclination, with three of ICEYE's satellites, and aligned in other orbital elements (e.g. RAAN) that make it clear they're specifically targeting this set

▸ I am a little skeptical that Russia is specifically targeting -X36 — there are two other satellites at the same inclination/RAAN (-X37 and -X38) — but the Russian sats are now all within striking distance of -X36, which is why people are concerned about it specifically; the closest cross-track distance is an estimated 500 meters (!!), all while the satellites are orbit 550 kilometers above Earth

▸ Russia has unleashed a cyberattack on a commercial satellite before (Viasat), and it is official Russian policy that commercially-owned infrastructure that aids in military efforts "may be legitimate target[s] for a retaliatory strike.”

▸ there's speculation that this could be a precursor to an RPO mission (meaning: physically grabbing the satellite or some other kind of non-kinetic attack like blinding/jamming)

Worth tracking closely. And unfortunately more evidence that space is militarizing, fast.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: "US has the troops in place to attack Cuba," per POLITICO

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

@scottmelker Now it’s a Taycan

[🇺🇸🇺🇦Marc Johnson blogguero.bsky.social @BlogGuero]

@ErikSTownsend i think you might be overthinking it Erik. Occam's Razor says he is just not that smart or well-advised.

BTW I am a huge fan of the pod and have been listening since Feb 2020 😉

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

🧿The Hormuz Crisis is not an oil crisis. It cannot be compared to past oil shocks.

🧿It is not an energy crisis. It cannot be compared to what the US experienced in 1972-1973 or any other in Europe.

🧿It is not a lockdown crisis. It cannot be compared to COVID-19.

🧿The Hormuz Crisis is a manufactured global crisis — the largest since World War II, intended to change the global economic and financial system and trade patterns. Its ramifications across every sector, every industry, and every field are beyond our current comprehension. We will learn as we go.

🧿The innocence is gone forever.