Ruddy Boyle

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@donnelly_brent Is net issuance correlated to high earnings/FCF? Profitable companies buy back their stock. Is stock price going up because of buybacks/lower net issuance or because they are very profitable companies with a favourable outlook?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@JoshYoung Has Jeff ever been anything other than bullish oil in his life?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@Smug_Mug2018 @McClellanOsc @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Cool thanks

[More Perfect Union @MorePerfectUS]

Billionaire Marc Andreessen says he has "zero" introspection, and that the idea itself is a modern invention.

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@therobotjames Some superb stuff in here. Thanks.

[Robot James 🤖🏖 @therobotjames]

i spent a couple of hours this morning talking to a piece of toast about everything useful i know about crypto trading

includes descriptions of 9 systematic strategies i used to trade.

it was fun.

https://t.co/ESG6bDnbvf

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@elonmusk Ehm, you can't just net off obese kids with malnourished kids and declare the problem banished.

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@cullenroche Surely the one month probability should be >50%?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@donnelly_brent But USD put selling/call buying is suggestive of long $ positioning that would help the bearish USD view, no?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@CFTC looking at most recent COT report - big moves in non reportables for US fixed income futures e.g TU. Is this real or were some accounts reclassified?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@donnelly_brent Long TLT for The Envy of the World cover feels like right idea, wrong trade expression. TLT is down due to US fiscal/moron risk premium. Short S&P would have been a more precise fade of the headline.
Btw - are we longing USD after the most recent cover?

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@TheEconomist @donnelly_brent

[Ryan Wright @baynkr]

Trading under uncertainty isn’t guesswork—it’s math.

Professionals don’t rely on gut feelings—they quantify their edge using Expected Value (EV).

Here’s Part 1 of how professional traders turn probability into consistent profits:

https://t.co/zwmRlVaLMd

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@donnelly_brent Reading this just before I log on to my bloomberg terminal. LFG!!! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@matthuang But 5y returns on bitcoin/crypto from 2018 were pretty crap...

[Ruddy Boyle @BoyleRuddy]

@BittelJulien You're out of your mind if you think financial conditions are easing. S&P has just done -10% in 2 sessions.

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

this is what's keeping me up at night these days...

1. google has become unusable. once you get used to "deep research" (thanks grok, perplexity etc), google feels like bringing a typewriter to a macbook meeting.

2. MCP will do for ai agents what REST did for web services - this standard protocol means an ai agent built for healthcare can instantly talk to billing systems, patient records, and insurance databases without custom code, unlocking thousands of new startup opportunities. it's really exciting!

3. we're seeing the entire cost structure of building businesses collapse - you can now build profitable companies serving tiny, weird niches that were impossible to reach when you needed a full team. what used to need 1000 customers to break even now needs 10.

4. it's not too late to be a creator or build a media business. creators are evolving into the new holding companies, consolidating influence, revenue streams, and audiences in ways that mirror corporate giants. somehow it's still early

5. really big arbitrage opportunity to buy businesses without taste and add taste. "taste private equity" has a nice ring to it.

6. figuring out LLM seo. billions of dollars will flow to new players who figure out how to get "cited" by LLMs. finally.

7. most ai apps are designed for websites not mobile. ai-first consumer mobile is really interesting. we saw with cal ai and the looksmaxing apps, that this is just the beginning.

8. every product launch needs video now - i'm watching great features die on landing pages while quick screen recordings go viral and drive thousands of signups. the social feeds have spoken.

9. what used to require millions in vc funding now needs an api key, some prompts and a tweet. this fires me up!!

10. faster than ever to launch something of quality. faster than ever to pivot. knowing when to pivot is an art.

11. i dont understand anyone who sitting in business school right now. literally everything is being rewritten.

12. who is building the app store for ai agents? companies will browse and hire pre-trained, specialized agents like we download apps

13. the way to stop a big player to compete with you in this new world is to own distribution.

14. you can spend a lot of time thinking about politics or checking emails or on social in the name of research, but not really moving forward anywhere.

15. we're about to see software companies capture value that used to belong to agencies, consulting firms, and entire departments.

16. we're about to go from "there's an app for that" to "there's your app for that.

17. minimum viable audience is more important than minimum viable product

18. I don't know how long this window stays open, but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. and for the people who are playing with this new tools, putting stuff out there, creating audiences/communities, you've got an unfair advantage.

i hope you get some sleep.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

2/6
A new generation of traders have little knowledge of how to correctly interpret charts from a classical perspective. There are rules set forth by Edwards and Magee (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 1948) and Schabacker (Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, 1934) 🧵🔽

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

So this is pretty cool - the yield curve heat map that I created is pretty popular so I thought I'd play around a bit more with it to see if I can make it 'dynamic' between different sectors of the curve (2s10s, 5s30s, 3M10Y, etc).
So....I did! Here's how it's done in STDY