Brad Meliska

Opinions are my own and do not represent investment advice

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

@teddyfuse SF firing

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Here's @Matt_Hougan on how the process was once slow but is speeding up and getting easier:

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

@cdixon Congrats @eddylazzarin!

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

After 5 years, today marks my last day at FalconX.

When I left JPMorgan in early 2021, I took a risk joining FalconX. At the time, FalconX was a Series B company with just over 50 employees operating in a new 24/7 asset class. Its been a wild ride and I feel like I got everything I signed up for (and more!). I am so grateful for the experience this asset class and FalconX has afforded me. Thank you to those who helped propel my career. You know who you are!

Most importantly, thank you to the clients who made this wild ride possible. I am so grateful for your trust and partnership through market cycles.

I am incredibly excited for my next opportunity, starting in a few weeks. Look out for an announcement on that front!

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

@SpencerApplebau @shayonsengupta Huge news - congrats!

[Blockworks @Blockworks]

Tokenized assets accounted for 33% of last week's volume on Hyperliquid, a new all time high

These assets also make up 21% of open interest on the platform

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Solana is down 57% since the spot ETFs launched in July (that is about as unlucky timing as you'll ever see in ETFs) yet they managed to not only accumulate $1.5b in flows but not really give any of it up. Further, 50% of the assets are from 13F filers = serious inv base. Both really good signs for future IMO. Great note out today on it from @JSeyff

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

A few quick notes on what we're seeing this morning in the context of the last few weeks. This bounce feels a bit different from other bounces we saw in February:

- We've seen sustained healthy inflows to BTC ETFs (~$1.3Bn over the last 7 trading days with more expected today). CME basis continues to expand north of 6.25% but with little expansion of CME open interest. This leads me to believe there are larger fundamental buyers of the ETF vs. basis traders re-entering the space

- Binance OI bounced 20% over the last 24H from YTD lows with longs driving the OI weighted funding rate positive for the first time since early Feb

- Continue to see short liquidations hit centralized venues which is accelerating this move higher (~$350mm BTC short liquidations over the last 12H)

- Still strong call overwriting in HYPE, ETH, and BTC coming from longer term strategic holders (Miners, DATs, and HNWIs). For some long term holders, there continues to be skepticism about bounces in this environment

- Those taking bullish directional views are still concentrated in majors, mainly BTC and SOL, but not taking much position out past end of March mainly due to conflict uncertainty in the middle east

- Seeing renewed optimism with NEAR on the back on upgrade news (Confidential Intents and IronClaw). Other notable alts with bullish skew include MORPHO, VVV, AAVE, and HYPE

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Boomers to the rescue again as bitcoin ETFs record $1.5b of inflows in the past 5 days after another big day yesterday. Biggest haul in a while, just about all of the original ten spot ETFs seeing action too = breadth and depth. This after a 50%(!) drawdown and most underwater. Even I'm impressed.

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

One of the most impactful thought pieces I think I've ever read on markets shows that geopolitical conflicts have very little impact on risk asset returns over the long term.

If anything, these events provide opportunities to entry for those with dry powder. JPM's legendary Michael Cembalest wrote about this in 2016 and again in 2023. I urge you to take a look at those pieces in the context of this week's events.

As we've seen over the last couple days of trading, risk markets have taken the view that this conflict will be short lived (3-6 weeks) with little disruptive impact to global GDP growth, outside of some expected short term shocks tot he oil markets. With more information flow and the ability to transact risk on a 24/7 basis (most notable was Hyperliquid's oil perp volume over the weekend), market participants can express views and digest information faster than ever.

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

It has and it always will be about oil

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

Isn't this kind of consolidation supposed to be bullish? We don't need more companies at irrational valuations. Consolidation is great for a new industry (look at mid-2000s post-tech bubble craze).

What isn't reflected here is the amount of M&A presently being worked on to combine fundamentally sound companies. That is where the sauce is being made

[Tim Copeland @Timccopeland]

VC deals are back to 2017 levels

Just another chart that points to this feeling that it's so over

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

Claude can't slice a 300 yard drive straight into the woods.

I will never be fully replaced.

[Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan]

The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.

The real reason bitcoin is down is that a bunch of people who were long Bitcoin sold their Bitcoin exposure. They sold it via spot, they sold it by unwinding leveraged positions, and they sold it be writing calls against their bitcoin.

They sold because of the four year cycle and because of quantum fears and because they wanted to invest in AI start ups and for other reasons.

They are mostly done selling and we are in the process of bottoming. We will set new all time highs in the future.

This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring. People want someone to blame — I get it — but the reality is far more boring than that.

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

Here’s the least helpful chart you could possibly lay eyes on this week

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

Having a lot of conversations with clients where "calling the bottom" is being discussed. Consistently brought up is BTC's lack of correlation to broader risk assets, mainly equities.

With SPX trading just 1% from all time highs, macro risk continues to be the largest risk to liquid crypto prices.

Equities are pricing forward earnings and economic growth to perfection. With any capitulation, or a routine ~5-10% correction in equity prices, we could see much lower BTC prices.

There continues to be high conviction in BTC alongside fundamentally driven alts (HYPE, AAVE, UNI, MORPHO, etc.). If we see a broader risk asset pullback, I'd expect larger funds to start deploying some size.

Until then, funds across personas are tepid to come back in.

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

@dlawant DMd you on this sir

[Brad Meliska @BradMeliska]

@solana @DriftProtocol @ramzyyalii you dog!