Russian refinery throughput has now collapsed to 2.8mbpd from 5.1mbpd in 2022. Omsk is severely damaged, though not yet fully offline (see below).
Gasoline, diesel and jet shortages are now emerging simultaneously. With multiple crude distillation units (CDUs) knocked out across the refinery system, there is no quick path to restoring refining capacity. Sustained product imports are becoming Russia's only viable medium-term solution.
Good luck with that. Belarus' Mozyr refinery is the Kremlin's best hope for securing up to 90kbpd of gasoline and a bit of jet and diesel. But it sits just across the Ukrainian border and is itself an obvious strategic target - expressis verbis by @ZelenskyyUa.
@MFA_Ukraine
@nntaleb Nearly every forward looking statement he’s made in recent years related to Russian/Ukraine has ended up incorrect. Same for Col. MacGregor, who you’ve mentioned.
I don’t understand how someone with your ability to see through bad data and charlatans falls for these guys
The goal is to finish fundraiser today, only 6700$ left.
Anything helps, from 5 dollar to a coherent comment or a quote repost. It changes a world to us.
Thank you