As a global macro investor, I have carefully studied all the big debt cycles over the last 100 years, including the 35 most recent cases when a nation’s government has gone broke.
I am deeply concerned about what I am seeing in the U.S. and other countries, as we face the potential for a damaging debt crisis in the years ahead.
The good news? It is a very manageable problem, if we act now and are able to navigate the political issues that stand in the way.
I have been sharing my thoughts in my online series "How Countries Go Broke" and @TIME magazine asked me to share the chapter with my proposed solution for the US government's debt issues with their audience. You can find that article here--thanks to them for highlighting this critical issue.
Elon Musk leaked 11 of the most powerful audiobooks that exist, but none of you were paying attention.
That’s why I searched through his 56,700 tweets to find them for you.
They are a MUST.
Pay attention ↓
VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE – PLEASE READ THIS AND DEFINITELY RETWEET IT
Most of you know Stan Weinstein; a great market technician who I have huge respect for, but he’s also a great friend of mine, and a father. His daughter, Marni Charm (you can look at her Facebook page “Kidney4Marni”) needs our help.
If I never again gain an ounce of benefit from my Twitter following other than this, I will consider all my work on Twitter well worth the 14-years of effort. I hope you don’t feel I am being too forward or using my following inappropriately, but Marni and her family are fighting for her life, and as a friend, I feel a responsibility to do all I can.
I've heard many of you say how much Stan has helped you achieve your financial goals. Now, here’s a chance for you to “give back.” His daughter desperately needs a kidney and, after you read the attached letter from her, if you have an interest (or know somebody who does) in being her angel, call the number at the bottom of the letter. In addition, if you are not interested in donating a kidney but want to help, please just spread the word. At the very least, retweet this message.
Below is a letter from Marni, which includes what you can do to help and those to contact.
God Bless.
The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse. 🙄
Credit Suisse is crumbling.
The Swiss banking system is feeling the heat.
Top investors are unwilling to invest more.
Welcome to 2023.
Credit Suisse, recognized as the second-largest financial institution in Switzerland and the seventeenth-largest lender by assets in Europe, has recently caught the world's attention.
Over the past six months, the 166-year-old bank's valuation has witnessed a staggering 65% decline, reaching an unprecedented low.
Let's dive in.
Last October, the company announced a radical restructuring after cutting thousands of jobs, including shrinking its investment bank and raising $4 billion in capital from investors, including the Saudi National Bank, which would make them a 10% owner of the company and the largest shareholder.
Coincidently, the Qatar Investment Authority became the second-largest shareholder in Credit Suisse.
It is important to recall that Credit Suisse faced a substantial setback in 2021, incurring a loss of $5.5 billion due to its connection to the collapse of Archegos Capital Management.
This single event led to the obliteration of five years' worth of investment banking profits, highlighting its risk management practises' total and complete failure.
Earlier this week, the bank revealed that the unprecedented outflows of client funds in early October had not been recuperated as of this month but had stabilized at lower levels.
Credit Suisse saw customer withdrawals of more than 110 billion Swiss francs in the fourth quarter.
Additionally, the bank confirmed in its annual letter it had to utilize liquidity buffers to address the consequences of these withdrawals and acknowledged that these circumstances have exacerbated and may continue to exacerbate liquidity risks.
Why did people begin to panic?
On Tuesday, executives said the bank's financial reporting was subject to material weaknesses in internal reporting processes for 2022 and 2021 after years of showcasing embarrassing risk management practices and empty promises.
This is where things get turned up.
The head of Saudi National Bank (the biggest shareholder) chose not to invest more in Credit Suisse due to regulations, sparking liquidity fears alongside European bank instability.
@zerohedge also reported that the bank's second-largest shareholder, the Qatar Investment Authority declined to comment as the fear started to take flight.
This prompted the US Treasury Department to say it was closely monitoring the Credit Suisse situation. Switzerland has a long-standing reputation for stability, neutrality, and a historical role as a tax haven since the mid-20th century, adding a layer of complexity to the matter.
Naturally, the Swiss National Bank swooped in like a guardian angel waving a magic wand, eager to save the day for more bankers.
What else would a central bank do but tenderly rescue a bumbling institution after a long, steady dance with recklessness?
Credit Suisse said it would borrow up to 50 billion Swiss Francs ($53.7 billion) from the Swiss central bank.
Yet another bailout. Incompetence bags a prize again.
But what happens if this is not enough?
In March 2022, the Swiss government indicated it wanted to set up a public liquidity backstop for banks to provide state-guaranteed cash should one of the country's big banks fail.
The proposed backstop would allow the Swiss National Bank to provide funds to any systemically important bank in the event of a failure in the form of a state-guaranteed loan.
However, the Swiss central bank recorded a historic loss of 132.5 billion francs ($141.54 billion), echoing Credit Suisse's reckless risk management skills over the years.
The Fed and Swiss central bank's support for financial institutions illustrates the flawed system of socialized losses and privatized profits in today's version of capitalism.
Expect more volatility and, sadly, more government support in the financial system.
WE'RE ALMOST AT 200K SUBS! TO CELEBRATE 5 LUCKY RETWEETERS OF THIS TWEET WILL GET A FREE LIFETIME SUBSCRIPTION TO OUR REAL-TIME PRO SERVICE @ https://t.co/ciYh3RTHL5
GOOD LUCK!
I'm going to give away $500 to two different people 🙏
You can pick: USD or Bitcoin.
All you have to do is RT this tweet, subscribe/follow my podcast (links below), and reply with a screenshot.
I'll pick the winners in 24 hours — good luck!