@airmainengineer What this doesnβt show is the insanity involved to gain access to the other side. The hole will be filled with a rivet that requires upset.
@tomek525@suddenrealities Someone from Poland critical of US policy is ironic.
Attention span needs to expand. There was a time when you could not be critical.
#XAGUSD π₯
Silver is about to hand us a gift. π
After that crazy ride from $122 β $61, price has climbed back up and parked itself just below our invalidation at $83.05. This is where the chop ends and the next move begins.
π The Setup:
Below $83.05 β the bearish count is alive. Be careful if price continues to go higher!
Expected path: a small push higher, then rejection.
Downside target: ~$68 zone. That's roughly 1000+ pips of potential.
π― This is the kind of "coiled spring" most traders will miss. They'll see the bounce and rush to buy the "recovery." We'll be waiting for the rejection candle instead.
π The setup isn't 100%! No setup ever is. What matters is knowing exactly where it fails ($83.05) and exactly where it pays ($68). That's the entire game.
Don't guess. Plan then trade. πββοΈ
Silver has reached the red descending trend.
My first expectation: a pullback toward the $56β59 range.
If this zone holds, wave 4 completes and the attempt for an upside breakout strengthens.
Critical scenario:
β’ Holding above the $56β59 range β $80 and then the $120+ zone.
β’ Sustained move below $56 β the count extends, the rally is delayed.
We are currently in the decision zone.
Do you think weβll see a liquidity sweep first, or a direct breakout?
#XAGUSD #SILVER
#Silver 4hour: Looking like yesterday was a dead-cat bounce at the moment, as the metals continue to trade like risk-on assets until further notice. No definitive breakdown just yet, but I would have liked to have seen a test of the 200dayMA before considering a bottom and we didn't get that yesterday.
Bigger picture, it still has to clear the main downtrend (red) to confidently predict the beginning of the next leg up.
I don't bearsonally see this war ending so quickly, so until we see silver and gold move with oil and not inversely, it seems most likely that the bottom is not in yet.
$SILVER
That monthly wick / reversal look is not something I would dismiss lightly, especially with MACD still extremely stretched on the higher timeframe... Even after this drop, the market is still only starting to unwind a very extended move...
I am still seeing a lot of hopium charts out there getting 200β500 likes... very much #CRYPTO vibes, and that is coming from me as a silver bull. But from a structural point of view, that kind of reaction still looks far too casual to me...
A bounce can happen, sure. But a big monthly wick after a vertical move, with momentum that overextended, is not the kind of setup that makes me think βall clear, buy the dip.β It makes me think damage has been done, and lower after the bounce remains the (much) higher-probability path.
Gold was the biggest IQ test of 2026 and most people failed it.
- Everyone was a gold expert at $5,589. Silence at $4,557.
- War in the Middle East and gold is crashing. The safe haven narrative just completely died.
- The same people who said βgold to $10,000β canβt explain why itβs falling during a war.
When inflation comes from oil and not money printing, gold doesnβt protect you. It punishes you.
$GOLD
I partly agree with the 1979/1980 analogy but people are oversimplifying it... ππΌ
Yes, the geopolitical shock setup is comparable on the surface.
No, the macro backdrop is not....
Back then, rates were far higher, policymakers had much more room to tighten, and the monetary regime was fundamentally different. Today, rates are still relatively low in historical terms, debt loads are far heavier, and the system is much less able to absorb that kind of Volcker-style shock. So I do not think a straight copy-paste 1980-style collapse is the base case...
That said, dismissing the analogy entirely is also a mistake.
If you actually map the 1979β1982 unwind properly, it does not argue for some harmless little dip. It argues that a much deeper retrace than most gold bulls are emotionally prepared for would still be perfectly normal in structural terms. And that is exactly the point people keep missing....
The chart floating around points to roughly $3,900β$4,000 as the first meaningful retrace zone. Fine. That is reasonable as an initial roadmap. But if you apply the historical Fib logic more consistently - using the 1980-style wick-to-wick retracement framework - you can absolutely justify something much closer to $3,000, which lines up very closely with the $2,800β$2,850 deeper retrace zone I posted earlier and which some people were laughing at....
They may not be laughing for long.
So my view is simple: 1979 is useful as a roadmap, but dangerous as a lazy one-liner.
I do not expect gold to replay the exact same path, with the same sideways churn and the same policy-driven collapse dynamics. The macro regime is too different for that. But I do think the historical analogy is a very useful reminder of one thing..
Parabolic moves can unwind a lot further than the crowd thinks, while still remaining completely normal within a secular bull market.
So yes, $3,900β$4,000 makes sense as a first major retrace area.
But no, that does not mean the downside automatically stops there.
A flush toward $3,000 - even $2,800β$2,850 - would look insane to most participants right now, which is precisely why it remains plausible. History does not say it must happen. But it absolutely says people are far too complacent in assuming it cannot.
Structure first. Narrative second.
GOLD - A drop of 30% (monthly close basis) would be pretty normal. 45% isn't out of the question, but less likely. No low-risk trading entry here. Long-term investors & stackers are sitting pretty, with MUCH higher targets in the years ahead. Huge 50% discount available at NSBC.
Weβve sunk so fucking low that getting our elections even remotely secure now means groveling and begging a bunch of corrupt, self serving pieces of shit in the Senate to do the absolute bare minimum.
Like passing basic voter ID that a massive majority of Americans want.
That pathetic reality alone should make your blood boil and prove just how rotten and bought off the whole goddamn system is.
These assholes would rather protect their rigged game than protect the country and weβre the idiots still pretending they give a single fuck about the Republic or We the people.