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@TheOneRead@CrewexAlex $SPX $QQQ #stocks#investing#news 📰
This is one of those weeks where the market does not line up cleanly
I review each part of the picture, including technicals, breadth, risk, credit, and $VIX, and what I'm watching next
Data through Wednesday's close
https://t.co/Sw9VyWOV1V
🚨 Straight line up from March 📈, $SPX at all time highs.
▪️ Clarity act tomorrow
▪️ Trump meets Xi tomorrow
▪️ $NVDA all time highs into earnings next week
A year ago, the consensus was AI would destroy Google.
Now Google is one of the biggest AI winners on earth.
Turns out owning the distribution layer for the internet still matters.
By 2030 which one is worth more?
$NVDA or $GOOGL?
Just realised, it’s been exactly a year (!) since I started sharing my thoughts on the SS platform
It’s been a lot of hard work, but proud of the community I’ve built and especially grateful to those who backed me early on.
Be sure to check out the page via bio!
Coinbase is the winner of AI-native finance.
We believe $COIN can be a ~$300B+ company (6x from today)
Artemis open sources the BEST Coinbase financial model using onchain data.
You can now build models like the BEST analysts.
We believe Coinbase is WINNING in stablecoins, agentic commerce – not just as a crypto exchange.
Here’s the core assumptions
> Stablecoin supply reaches ~$3T in 2031 (~US Treasury official estimates)
> USDC is 30% of stablecoin supply
> Agentic Commerce ~$7.5T in yearly spend in 2031
> Coinbase Agentic Commerce is able to monetize and captures 1bp of the entire TAM
> Net transaction revenue grows 11% CAGR
> Subscription & Services goes from 40% of total revenue to 65% of revenue in 2031
In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income.
At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today)
Full 12 page thesis drops at 5pm ET 👀
🚨 The path forward probably is leaning towards the (lower est) it seems. 📉
QT ending, Dec rate cut odds have spiked, and by May 26’ you’ll have a Trump selected Fed chair who would be dovish if we had to guess.
Hard to fight the Fed. $SPX $QQQ $VIX