Check out these #gunfire stats from #Everytown. Since the Sandy Hook massacre in 2012, a pronounced upward trend and four-fold spike last year. And 2020-21 is misleading, as many schools were remote teaching for most that year. https://t.co/rxBtxsBodR
@michaeldamsky@JacobRubashkin@Redistrict Yep, but NY Dems should have known its own state Supreme Court. They also believed all the incorrect info from redistricting prognosticators that the GOP had a big redistricting edge. Those same prognosticators also claimed a coming Red Wave. https://t.co/CGxzXBl4Gg
Here's another midterm analysis seeking simple answers. Result wasn't just due to Dobbs. Also bad candidates, horrible post-1/6 GOP brand, no positive platform, overweighting generic ballots & Biden favorability, and presuming a historical trend as destiny https://t.co/xEwJlLUHYq
2nd guessing of national Democrats midterm spend is inevitable. @JacobRubashkin makes good micro case below in AZ races. At a macro level, 140 House Democrats in safe districts kept >$200M parked in their war chests with "democracy on the line." See story: https://t.co/l1X3CbnZ9X
In the closing months of the campaign, DCCC/HMP spent $2.7m to defend Stanton in his Biden+10 seat (he won by 12) and $1.8m to defend O’Halleran in his Trump+8 seat (he lost by 8). But they spent just $1.1m vs. AZ1 and $0 in AZ6, two races won by Rs by a combined 6,511 votes.
@monsieurmoscato Here's my reporting on your point, though the headline is out of date as most pundits have returned to their red predictions, though not based on much district-level independent polling: https://t.co/s8CbMLZsSB
@Redistrict@CookPolitical What informs these predictions is a good question. Not independent polling when available. KGTV/Union-Tribune poll had Levin +6 in CA-49. In MI-7, Slotkin up +8 in Detroit News/WDIV poll. And in Maine-2, Golden has led in every independent poll, though by narrower numbers.
To understand just how blind pundits are flying in U.S. House races, of the 35 House races rated Toss-Up by @CookPolitical, only 17 have independent polling in last two months.
With political statistics, always study the denominator. 95% of 100 is less than 60% of 1,000. Slightly more Americans identify as Democrat (46%) than GOP (43%). So surveys that poll equal numbers of Dems & Reps are slightly off to begin with. https://t.co/WeBui1ZjLx
Dispatch from the corporate consolidation frontlines: my timely Q&A with grocery worker union leader Andrea Zinder about #Albertsons-Kroger mega-merger & $4B dividend. https://t.co/DSEj006ELw @UFCW324@andreaz324
Rumor is @CaliforniaPUC may announce curtailing rooftop solar incentives on eve of midterm elections. If this happens, will Gov. @GavinNewsom ruin his environmental reputation? See guest essay: https://t.co/79RdleXcPK
📢 Team Kermit just knocked our 150,000 door for the season! 📢
That means we have reached out to over 3️⃣0️⃣0️⃣,0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ voters.
Today, volunteers from all 10 counties in CA-03 went to talk to their neighbors in rain, sleet & snow!
Thank you #TeamKermit! 💙💚🐸
Our last free issue before the Nov. 8 election is now out. Includes what early voters data means, a Q&A on Albertsons-Kroger mega-merger, the youth vote & guest essay on rooftop solar program changes coming perhaps Monday. https://t.co/CtfpPhyyZv
Unfortunate to see WashPost's Dana @Milbank column today "Elegy for an honest Republican" about Calif. @RepDavidValadao. A Google search would have found my two investigations into illegal and unethical campaign fundraising/spending tactics by Valadao. https://t.co/vAcq64PeOy