Germany August IP m/m -4.3%(est -1.0%, last +1.3%)
Germany August IP y/y -3.9% (est -0.9%,last +1.5%)
Really bad numbers, inline with industrial orders' contraction. The Q3 seems weak, in line with PMIs pointing to flat growth at the best...
It is not looking good for the manufacturing recovery. Looks like there might be more structural deterioration than expected. Auto orders from abroad contributed a lot to the drop. Tariffs surely aren't helping
50bps cut is not my view. But if we get a very low NFP print tomorrow (say below 40k, about half of what’s considered breakeven now), the market will push in that direction. Your and my opinions don’t matter here… convexity at turning points is always underappreciated.
Friends of twitter. I have been allowed to write a blog again.
I have started with framing my current views on the Fed and USD rates.
Thoughts & feedback welcome. I look forward to writing more often.
It will always be free for all
https://t.co/mUNRtPLTQo