@ThomasTangMI Excellent research as always, Thomas. Agree on all the long term prospects and especially the part that PT capacity expansion is not priced in yet. Short term I fear how the CMD will go with no new CEO in place and maybe a cautious update on long term goals as we wait for the…
Silicon Photonics' optical transceiver market share is estimated to exceed 50% by 2027.
$TSM VP of Advanced Packaging said today that silicon photonics is becoming the mainstream form thanks to the structural transformation of optical transceivers.
He also stated that the real bottleneck for large-scale deployment lies in lasers, optical fibers, fiber optic connectors, and product testing.
If I was to pick the "main" players instead of just name-dumping:
- $LITE / $COHR: InP lasers - CW for SiPh, ELS for CPO, 200G EMLs
- $AEHR: SiPh WLBI testing
- $GLW: PM fibre, fibre arrays & MPO/MTP connectivity
- Sumitomo Electric (5802): InP lasers + substrates
Obviously you've got a ton of other names from: $AAOI for InP lasers, $IQE for InP base epi, $BESI for hybrid bonding and $KEYS / $VIAV for optical test.
Feels like TSMC have been running the same narrative alongside the COUPE roadmap for a while now though.
But always good to get some re-confirmations on where everyone's favourite bottlenecks sit / narratives coming from TSMC themselves.
@FrederikIngema1 Hej Frederik
Har fulgt med fra sidelinjen. Imponerende så meget rigtigt du rammer. Jeg satsede og tog Philipsen ind som kaptajn i går. Ville du hente evenpoel for ham i dag eller satse på udbuddet all out?
@ParadisLabs How do you factor in the NPV of the old compute that Meta now will rent out. Is this a potential red flag on valuation of older data centers, that hyperscalers have to write down in value on their balance sheet? Im bullish but want to test the bear thesis
@aleabitoreddit Appreciate all the knowledge sharing @aleabitoreddit! Are you still long Auros after 50% drop? Can’t find any news that changed the thesis
@aleabitoreddit Great Stock and Call! You should look into $RSGN.SW which is the European equivalent on low vintage and medium transformers. Could re rate like Hammond
@aleabitoreddit Raising capital in the current environment makes sense, but its not very prudent to price this at 14,5 SEK, when it traded there 13th of april. A directed share issuance price should be close to market prices minus 5-10% maximum. That said the longer term narrative is intact
@LIWEI_TWCapital Hmm, makes no sense. Submitted order this morning and was live the last hour of trading and above where it traded. Confusion is real. New to IBKR platform to get access to Asian stocks