@darioperkins The Fed hardballed real rates back down to -1% late 2021. Left to its own devices, the market will move real rates to the lvl that keeps inflation swaps anchored. More rodeo, perhaps. Less major over/undershoot.
**In no way is this a message of love for the task rabbit maniac**
@BobEUnlimited Happy paying customer here. Would recommend it to anyone as all articles throughout the week are pertinent, helpful and, as the fashionable term goes… actionable!
@dampedspring@AahanPrometheus Well said. If it’s not pure expectation there is premia. If it’s pure expectation there is no premia. Money can be made in both cases, but for different reasons.
@TaviCosta@ThierryBorgeat You’re literally showing a falsification of your point, as your chart ends in 2022 and there was no recession following that spike.
@fejau_inc@WarrenPies@AahanPrometheus I don’t get the argument of those who think the forward curve in oil is 0% expectations. If someone wants to explain would be grateful.
Till then I read it like you.
Same time, I can hear Jeff Currie in my mind, arguing backwardation is bullish spot.