Conjectures and Refutations

“The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory but progress.” Karl Popper

[Conjectures and Refutations @CRefutations]

@darioperkins The Fed hardballed real rates back down to -1% late 2021. Left to its own devices, the market will move real rates to the lvl that keeps inflation swaps anchored. More rodeo, perhaps. Less major over/undershoot.
**In no way is this a message of love for the task rabbit maniac**

[Conjectures and Refutations @CRefutations]

@Mindset4Money_X That’s harsh. I’d say he correctly predicted 37 out of the past 3.

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@jewishmemequeen She thought it came from “In Challah”

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@BobEUnlimited Happy paying customer here. Would recommend it to anyone as all articles throughout the week are pertinent, helpful and, as the fashionable term goes… actionable!

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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Trading with another man’s securities

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@dampedspring @perfiliev Nice. Thanks.

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@CliffordAsness

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@NickSchmidt 20 bps

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@dampedspring @AahanPrometheus Well said. If it’s not pure expectation there is premia. If it’s pure expectation there is no premia. Money can be made in both cases, but for different reasons.

[Conjectures and Refutations @CRefutations]

@citrini Yes. But not yet.

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@AndreasSteno 🤣

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@TechCharts Excess supply of oil

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@AndreasSteno How else do you bring demand down to adjust? Do you think the oil price alone does that? (Not trolling)

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@TaviCosta @ThierryBorgeat You’re literally showing a falsification of your point, as your chart ends in 2022 and there was no recession following that spike.

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@darioperkins Credit always falls way before the wall

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@alphacharts365 Within a trend, the relevant MA is certainly potential support.

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@Citrini7 It means it has f ck all to do with your process

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@JackFarley96 It’s a perfectly neutral news headline concealing nothing.
Your reaction, on the other hand…..

[Conjectures and Refutations @CRefutations]

@donnelly_brent The wave function has a growing distribution but it has not yet collapsed

[Conjectures and Refutations @CRefutations]

@fejau_inc @WarrenPies @AahanPrometheus I don’t get the argument of those who think the forward curve in oil is 0% expectations. If someone wants to explain would be grateful.
Till then I read it like you.
Same time, I can hear Jeff Currie in my mind, arguing backwardation is bullish spot.