Caerullea

Oil Trader // Busy conducting the Four Quarters // Insta: @ Caerullea

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

You could literally just fly to Zurich, grab a Kaffee und Gipfeli with a 63 year old Heizungsbauer in Winterthur, close your first acquisition over Kalbsfilet at the Kronenhalle, roll up 40 certified HVAC operators across DACH, ride the EU boiler phase-out like a regulatory escalator, build a recurring maintenance book worth 10x, sell to Brookfield at 14x EBITDA tax-free, park the HoldCo in Zug at 11.9%, and spend your summers in Ascona with a blonde who reads Hesse and Jünger.

- but you will not.

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@Parisianaes1 if you knew anything about paris, u would know during summers its always like that. going back to the 40s even. pls educate yourself a little, u got a nice page dont ruin it.

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@TheIcahnist which book?

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@MichealOlise_ u chose france mate.

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@prep_propaganda Me 2 mate

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

The IRGC is now claiming it has halted the flow of vessels through the Omani corridor. Looks like it's for real: about 6 hours ago (7:30 UTC time) several VLCCs that were booking it for this exit pulled a 180 and retreated and no tankers have passed since

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@mb_ghalibaf @LiveSquawk You should stop talking. Palestine this Gaza that, in the end you open the strait and capitulate. The world saw strength in Iran now we are seeing weakness, I’m a little disappointed. Libanon and Gaza still being bombed as we speak, disgraceful dishonorable behavior.

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@morgan_downey is a podcast in the works? would like to see you and people like @JosefSchachter, @CommodMkt @anasalhajji @JuneGoh_Sparta and @aeberman12 in discussion.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

The Brent Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) swap—is a critical instrument used to bridge the gap between the physical and futures markets. In simple terms, it reflects the price difference between Dated Brent (physical North Sea cargoes) and Frontline Brent (the first-month ICE Brent futures contract).

In recent sessions, the DFL has surged into record backwardation, approaching USD 11/bbl and surpassing the previous peak seen in 2022. This sharp widening underscores an intensifying scramble for prompt physical cargoes, clearly highlighting the growing stress and dislocation in the market as buyers compete to secure immediate supply.
Chart source: Bloomberg

[Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ]

A 40% drawdown in crude oil is not a macroeconomic signal about global demand.

The timeline is currently panicking over recession indicators and imaginary supply gluts.

But if you are charting $WTI support levels without looking at prime broker margin requirements, you have been trading blind.

The reality of the energy market is entirely dictated by COLLATERAL.

Energy futures are not just price discovery mechanisms; they are foundational assets for massive institutional carry trades.

When overnight funding costs remain structurally elevated, the weakest funds are forced to liquidate their most liquid paper assets just to meet margin calls.

This is not a surplus of physical barrels hitting the spot market.

This is a mechanical, forced deleveraging cycle in the derivatives market.

Funds are dumping paper crude to raise cash, dragging the price down to $72 despite global supply chains being completely fractured.

The physical clearing houses know exactly what is happening.

They are absorbing real inventory at distressed PAPER valuations while retail trend-followers short the bottom of a collateral cascade.

The paper price will continue to bleed until the margin liquidations are complete.

And then the physical reality will violently reassert itself.

Remember I said this when the selling stops and the actual physical deficit is exposed.

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Very interesting thread on meritocracy and attention.

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@MaxPapazov They never did. The illusional of the dillusional pseudo economic theories dominates
Rhetoric🤡

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

How low can it go? #oil

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Trump is now turning his attention to refiners and fuel producers, criticizing the slow pace of declines in retail gasoline prices following the sharp drop in crude oil. However, the refining sector's response remains constrained by historically low inventories of refined products, particularly in the middle distillate complex.

As the charts highlight, US gasoline crack spreads remain elevated despite the recent easing in crude prices. The biggest beneficiary of the reopening of Middle East export flows has so far been the distillate market, with gasoil and diesel cracks falling from their March peaks. This reflects the fact that much of the additional crude now reaching the market is medium-to-heavy Gulf crude, which yields a higher proportion of middle distillates such as diesel, gasoil and jet fuel.

While increased crude availability should eventually help ease refining margins and lower fuel prices, depleted product inventories accumulated during the Strait of Hormuz disruption continue to support cracks. The combination of peak summer demand for gasoline keeping prices at the pumps seasonally elevated, refiners – for now - remain incentivized to maximize diesel and jet fuel production, delaying a more pronounced decline in gasoline prices.

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“In the short term, you are as good as your intensity.

In the long term, you are only as good as your consistency.”

— Shane Parrish

[Béa Gonzalez (sophiacycles) @SophiaCycles]

There is no sense talking about "being true to yourself" until you are sure what voice you are being true to. It takes hard work to differentiate the voices of the unconscious.~Marion Woodman

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@MarioNawfal you clearly lack an understanding of not just france, but of musical gatherings, and the anthropological systems that guide them dating back to tribal times. kind of sad coming from a mind as curious as urs.

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

Jeff Gundlach on Private Equity, Private Credit, offshore re-insurance, and other menaces to society:

“I’m getting that feeling that I had in 2005, 2006, where I feel like everybody’s lying about everything.”

[Energy Burrito™️ @energyburrito]

The physical market is about to take control of the narrative.
Oil will be 100+ in short order.
Love,
Burrito

[Caerullea @Caerulleaa]

@s_m_marandi Where is Iran 👀