Caffeine Investing

I've been investing since 2014. I enjoy researching companies to buy and hold for a multi-year time horizon.

Stay caffeinated!

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Portfolio 7/1/26

Top positions: $AMD $NVDA $DLO $MELI $TSLA $NU $ALAB $OSCR $SOFI $TMDX $AMZN $OUST $SNOW $UBER $CRWD $DDOG $META $DKNG $HIMS $COIN $MU $SPCX

Performance YTD: +14.67%

[Za @ZaStocks]

Rotation is the lifeblood of a prolonged bull market.

If leading stocks and groups consolidate or god forbid pullback, it’d be bullish for the longevity of this run.

You don’t want stocks going up to infinity without taking a breather, that’s how you end up with crashes.

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

Two things have to happen for $MU to be worth it at today's prices:

1) The shortage lasts for at least two-three more years with only very weak signs of stopping. (80%+ GM for foreseeable future)

2) The market decides to re-rate $MU as non-cyclical

Both are entirely possible. But it's important to understand these are the two things that have to do ALL of the lifting

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Added to $MU

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Garry Tan expecting 90,000x more inference over the next 24-36 months is wild. $NVDA and other AI companies may be criminally undervalued by several orders or magnitude. This is early innings.

[Naval @naval]

New podcast with @garrytan, @farbood and Daniel Francis.

Live in the Future!

00:00 Guest Intros
02:35 Live in the Future
03:58 Will AI Outsmart us?
07:43 In the Anthropic Breadline
09:59 The Tech Genie Is Out
12:33 We Invested in COVID?!
14:25 Good Writing Is Novelty
18:50 Living Like It’s 2028
24:32 Truth dot ai
30:18 Does China have the Weights?
35:38 Everyone has AI Anxiety
39:32 Have Your Agent Talk to My Agent
42:01 What if Open Source takes the Lead?
44:03 The Sun is Setting on Google
48:00 Ride the AGI
50:46 Will There be Startups?
54:05 Defending Taiwan
1:00:05 The California Empire
1:01:26 If the U.S. Falls
1:03:11 Universal Basic Robot
1:06:01 Humans as AI Handlers

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

$OUST is now up 173% since my $23 average cost.

-> Deep dive given out March 23rd.

-> Countless X posts even on days where $OUST dropped 16% in a day.

-> Most importantly paid subs saw exactly where I bought notified to the second fully transparently.

Congratulations to all so far on $OUST but just a reminder it's only at $3.7B MC today.

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

Earnings expected to peak in 2027 and then decline

These stocks appear "cheap" for a reason and historically, they have peaked months before the growth deceleration began. $MU #Samsung #memory

Chart - Bernstein

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Opened a starter position in $MU
Trimmed some $OSCR

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Portfolio 6/26/26

Top positions: $AMD $NVDA $MELI $DLO $TSLA $NU $ALAB $OSCR $SOFI $TMDX $AMZN $SNOW $UBER $OUST $CRWD $DDOG $META $DKNG $HIMS $COIN $SPCX

Performance YTD: +7.83%

[Za @ZaStocks]

We’re probably not far off from the first major headline about a company using AI to help cure a major disease or discover a revolutionary new treatment.

Price speaks before news and healthcare + genomics has been speaking.

Once that happens the group can go parabolic.

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

$AMD $ALAB trim during AH

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

@JonahLupton Top 1-5: $AMD $NVDA $MELI $TSLA $DLO
6-10: $NU $ALAB $OSCR $SOFI $TMDX
11-15: $AMZN $SNOW $UBER $OUST $CRWD

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

Every couple of months I post our top positions at @FirstWaveFund and since we sent our May investor letter a few days ago I don’t mind sharing those positions... here are the top 12 in alphabetical order:

AAOI, ALAB, APP, CRDO, HIMS, HROW, IREN, MELI, MU, NBIS, RDDT, TMDX

All estimates are my own. Every company mentioned in this post has risks so please do your own research and form your own opinions, thesis and conviction. Please don't waste your time asking me where I'd be buying or trimming... because I won't answer.

I spend alot of time building our models and thinking through all the possible variables and catalysts that will impact the reported financials but in reality trying to predict revenues, margins, dilution and earnings in CY2028 or FY2029 is not easy.

$AAOI
CY2025 revenues = $455M
CY2028 revenues = $10.70B
3 year revenue CAGR = 186%
CY2025 EPS = -$0.26
CY2026 EPS = $1.04
CY2028 EPS = $10.40
2 year EPS CAGR from CY2026 through CY2028 = 216%
Currently trading at 15.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$ALAB
CY2025 revenues = $852M
CY2028 revenues = $3.88B
3 year revenue CAGR = 66%
CY2025 EPS = 1.84
CY2028 EPS = $8.55
3 year EPS CAGR = 67%
Currently trading at 48.7 CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$APP
CY2025 revenues = $5.48B
CY2028 revenues = $16.67B
3 year revenue CAGR = 45%
CY2025 EPS = $10.64
CY2028 EPS = $37.06
3 year EPS CAGR = 52%
Currently trading at 12.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$CRDO
FY2025 revenues = $436M
FY2028 revenues = $4.11B
3 year revenue CAGR = 111%
FY2025 EPS = $0.70
FY2028 EPS = $10.68
3 year EPS CAGR = 148%
Currently trading at 25.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$HIMS
CY2025 revenues = $2.35B
CY2028 revenues = $5.81B
3 year revenue CAGR = 35%
CY2025 EPS = $1.10
CY2028 EPS = $2.55
3 year EPS CAGR = 32%
Currently trading at 13.9x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$HROW
CY2025 revenues = $272M
CY2028 revenues = $928B
3 year revenue CAGR = 50%
CY2025 EPS = -$0.14
CY2026 EPS = $1.09
CY2028 EPS = $5.64
2 year EPS CAGR = 127%
Currently trading at 7.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$IREN
FY2025 revenues = $510M
FY2028 revenues = $6.60B
FY2029 revenues = $9.88B
4 year revenue CAGR = 110%
FY2025 EPS = $0.35
FY2028 EPS = $0.68
FY2029 EPS = $1.33
4 year EPS CAGR = 40%
Currently trading at 45.1x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$MELI
CY2025 revenues = $28.89B
CY2028 revenues = $65.81B
3 year revenue CAGR = 32%
CY2025 EPS = $39.40
CY2028 EPS = $90.14
3 year EPS CAGR = 32%
Currently trading at 18.1x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$MU
FY2025 revenues = $37.38B
FY2028 revenues = $274.18B
3 year revenue CAGR = 94%
FY2025 EPS = $8.29
FY2028 EPS = $151.32
3 year EPS CAGR = 163%
Currently trading at 7.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$NBIS
CY2025 revenues = $530M
CY2028 revenues = $22.83B
3 year revenue CAGR = 250%
CY2028 EPS = $5.42
CY2031 EPS = $23.96
Currently trading at 47.8x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)
3 year EPS CAGR from CY2028 through CY2031 = 64%

$RDDT
CY2025 revenues = $2.20B
CY2028 revenues = $6.24B
3 year revenue CAGR = 42%
CY2025 EPS = $4.54
CY2028 EPS = $14.15
3 year EPS CAGR = 46%
Currently trading at 12.3x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

$TMDX
CY2025 revenues = $605M
CY2028 revenues = $1.34B
3 year revenue CAGR = 30%
CY2025 EPS = $2.63
CY2028 EPS = $6.33
3 year EPS CAGR = 34%
Currently trading at 12.4x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt)

NFA.
DYOR.
*I own all of these stocks personally and so does @FirstWaveFund

**If you see any glaring mistakes in my numbers feel free to comment below and I'll double check my work/models.

ENJOY THE LONG WEEKEND.
GO SOCCER!!!!!

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Portfolio 6/17/26

Top positions: $AMD $NVDA $MELI $TSLA $DLO $NU $ALAB $OSCR $SOFI $TMDX $AMZN $SNOW $UBER $OUST $CRWD $DDOG $META $DKNG $COIN $HIMS $SPCX

Performance YTD: +7.42%

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, to acquire Cursor for $60 billion in stock

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

I considered buying $MU in early 2025 but didn’t pull the trigger and do proper DD, and missed the run up. Is it still a buy at current levels? I believe there’s at least a few years of runway left with this name, along with some others like $ALAB

[david friedberg @friedberg]

they’re not jobs if they’re not valued. they’re not valued if there aren’t customers out there willing to pay them for their great work. needing the government to “create” a job is tantamount to welfare and that level of welfare resolves these individuals to a dependency on the government and lack of economic mobility. and chains our people, collectively, to a more indentured future.

you may be well intentioned but you have, and always will, fail to see the destitute folly of government as a job creation engine.

i have tried to engage you on this topic, in good faith, with empiricism and reasoning, but you have only dodged my points and pivoted to some populist refrain about the importance of taxation and the evils of productivity-driven success.

i can only assume you’re dodging these truths because you and the rest of the politburo leadership have deemed the conversation unsafe speech and put your oligopoly at risk.

let’s leave it at that then.

perhaps if your ways get their day, we can all bask in the glories of the dark ages ahead.

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Got one share of $SPCX at $135 - will likely be adding as time goes on. Impressive business!

[Caffeine Investing @CaffeineInvest]

Portfolio 6/12/26

Top positions: $AMD $NVDA $MELI $TSLA $DLO $NU $ALAB $OSCR $SOFI $TMDX $AMZN $SNOW $UBER $OUST $CRWD $DDOG $DKNG $META $COIN $HIMS $SPCX

Performance YTD: +6.03%

[Za @ZaStocks]

The $SPCX + $TSLA merger is going to melt people’s brains.

Robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy storage, LLMs, batteries, rockets, chips, compute, connectivity, satellites, solar, etc. all under one roof.

It’s inevitable.