WΞMASTΞR ⚡️

[Alexandra Semenova @alexandraandnyc]

This story in the NYT was a fascinating read. Here was @adam3us’s response earlier this year when I asked how often he fields questions about whether or not he’s Satoshi.

[Phyrex @PhyrexNi]

今天的作业有点难了，一方面是美国和伊朗的战斗升级，一方面是鲍威尔较为鹰派的发言，先说战斗吧，虽然 IEA 有释放石油降低了油价，但伊朗准备升级战争，市场的比较担心会对工业和能源打击，油价重新上涨，目前美油的价格又重新回到了 99 美元，可能明天就冲上 100 了，虽然鲍威尔并没有明确的说油价的影响。

但也确实承认了油价的上涨可能会推高通胀，虽然这已经是美联储的预期了，但投资者还是会很头疼，伊朗的顽强可能超过了川普的想象，虽然川普每天都在说很快就能结束战争，但到现在都没有看到结束的迹象，就更别说霍尔木兹海峡了。

鲍威尔虽然否定了短期加息的可能，但基本上同意了年内可能就降息一次的预期，甚至认为 AI 提升了数据中心的需求，并且提升了通胀，造成了短期不会降息的另一个原因，其次就是关税，反而觉得战争的影响可能是短期的。重点还是要看下半年了，上半年真的是痛苦模式。

回到 Bitcoin 的数据来看，今天油价和鲍威尔的双重压力下 $BTC 的价格还是发生了下行的震荡，挺有趣的，昨天还在说牛回的小伙伴今天就在说熊市来了，实际上现在主要的叙事仍然是战争带来的震荡行情，战争升级，油价上涨市场就会萎靡，反过来市场就会有少许活力。

筹码结构还是一如既往的稳定，虽然价格不太好，但多数的投资者仍然没有换手的兴趣。短期还是看战争结果吧。

Bitget VIP，费率更低，福利更狠

[Penny2x @imPenny2x]

This is one of the best transparency upgrades to 𝕏 since Elon took over. I have turned down more than one “offer” because the expectation was that you do not disclose. I hope it is brutally enforced. 𝕏 wins by dominating in authenticity and accountability and this is it.

[Ben Longmier @longmier]

Two orders of magnitude improvement in Direct to Cell (now called @Starlink Mobile) for V2. Huge improvement and amazing forthcoming work by the Starlink team.

[Naval @naval]

Is Traditional Software Engineering Dead?

“Does this mean that traditional software engineering is dead? Absolutely not. Software engineers—even the ones who are not necessarily tuning or training AI models—these are now among the most leveraged people on earth. Sure, the guys who are training and tuning models are even more leveraged because they’re building the tool set that software engineers are using.

But software engineers still have two massive advantages on you. First, they think in code, so they actually know what’s going on underneath. And all abstractions are leaky. So when you have a computer programming for you—when you have Claude Code or equivalent programming for you—it’s going to make mistakes.

It’s going to have bugs. It’s going to have suboptimal architecture. So it’s not going to be quite right. And someone who understands what’s going on underneath will be able to plug the leaks as they occur.

So if you want to build a well-architected application, if you want to be able to even specify a well-architected application, if you want to be able to make it run at high performance, if you want it to do its best, if you want to catch the bugs early, then you’re going to want to have a software engineering background.

The traditional software engineer is going to be able to use these tools much better. And there are still many kinds of problems in software engineering that are out of scope for these AI programs today. The easiest way to think about those is problems that are outside of their data distribution.

For example, if they need to do a binary sort or reverse a linked list, they’ve seen countless examples of that, so they’re extremely good at it. But when you start getting out of their domain—where you have to write very high-performance code, when you’re running on architectures that are novel or brand new, when you’re actually creating new things or solving new problems, then you still need to get in there and hand code it.

At least until either there are so many of those examples that new models can be trained on them, or until these models can sufficiently reason at even higher levels of abstraction and crack it on their own…

And remember: there is no demand for average. The average app—nobody wants it, at least as long as it’s not filling some niche that is filled by a superior app. The app that is better will win essentially a hundred percent of the market. Maybe there’s some small percentage that will bleed off to the second-best app because it does some little niche feature better than the main app, or it’s cheaper, or something of the sort.

But generally speaking, people only want the best of anything. So the bad news is there’s no point in being number two or number three—like in the famous Glengarry Glen Ross scene where Alec Baldwin says, “First place gets a Cadillac Eldorado, second place gets a set of steak knives, and third place you’re fired.”

That’s absolutely true in these winner-take-all markets. That’s the bad news: You have to be the best at something if you want to win.

However, the set of things you can be best at is infinite. You can always find some niche that is perfect for you, and you can be the best at that thing. This goes back to an old tweet of mine where I said, “Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.”

And I think that still applies in this age of AI.”

[WΞMASTΞR ⚡️ @CakeSharer]

@WuBlockchain 这么巧，吴老板的图是从我朋友圈取了吧？