CalculatedRisk🎲🏆

I 🧡BTC & stocks sometimes too

[Sulaiman Ahmed @ShaykhSulaiman]

"THE US SHOULD STOP FABRICATING SO-CALLED CHINESE SPY NARRATIVE AS A PRETEXT FOR IMPOSING TECHNOLOGY RESTRICTIONS" — CHINA'S FM SPOX

"China's scientific progress relies on independent innovation and open cooperation"

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

Welcome to the 800 new followers this weekend.

If you want the Alphatica research we don’t publish on X, sign up for the email list.

We’re also opening the platform soon with 30 spots, and the invite goes to subscribers first.

Sign up here:
https://t.co/PJgZcSFR0t

[The Peasant @ThePeasant2706]

@Topstep closed my trade and rejected my orders this morning on NQ

[CalculatedRisk🎲🏆 @Calculatedrisk0]

@daltonbrewer Investigations coming ?

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

What stands out to me about $GOOGL dip is Cloud’s $561B backlog with over 55% expected to convert into revenue within two years implying ~$154B annually versus today’s ~$123B run rate before any new deals.

That visibility becomes huge as Google starts selling complete TPU systems alongside renting out compute creating a second way to monetize its own chips ahead of management’s expected 2027 revenue ramp.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Next week we got FOMC.

Next next week we got Midterm Elections.

And somewhere before that, in between that, and after that, we got a host of earnings.

Trader’s paradise.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

FYI, my FT column on "our yields, your problem" -- Why Europe should not wait for lower US bond yields.

https://t.co/llFDRQPt0B

#economy #markets #bonds #yields #europe @FT

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed governor Chris Waller addresses the White House's challenges to Fed independence during an interview with Bloomberg's @SalehaMohsin:

"There is a threat to Fed independence by the administration. So far, it hasn't really succeeded.... I'm hoping that that continues."

[Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi]

Iran's economy was supposed to collapse. It didn't. The Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be under Trump's control. It isn't. Nothing Trump says is true.

https://t.co/0jQcSAtCsp

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

Ambiguity is synonymous with this new type of Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh. Dodged every important question with half-assed answers, including his own forecast. I'm more confused now about policy direction than I was before the FOMC statement.

[CalculatedRisk🎲🏆 @Calculatedrisk0]

@LouBasenese Kalshi odds are at 13c

[Augustine Carrasco @AugustineCarrB]

🎯

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 AI Boom Set to Push S&P 500 Earnings Growth to 32% This Year - Bloomberg
https://t.co/xcU4ZmcSKg

[Andrew Hiesinger @AndrewHiesinger]

Independent thought is on the decline

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

Two things can be true at the same time:

The AI trade is not done

&

The Fed has lost control

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

We are learning that the X algorithm rewards extremes and punishes nuance.

Here is a recent example (today):

First post:

"VIX is broken, crash incoming"

Second Post:

"VIX moved because portfolio managers are hedging gains at all-time highs, here's the 20-year study showing it means nothing."

The algorithm optimizes for the first one.

You are seeing the gap in real time between what they say and what the data actually shows.

They substitute conviction for evidence. The louder they say it, the more authoritative it sounds. Until someone shows the receipts.

Be mindful of that as you spend time on this platform.

$SPY $QQQ

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

Another Fintwit debate. Let's settle it with data.

"VIX is green while SPX is at all-time highs. That's bearish."

You've seen this take posted many times over the last 24 hours. We tested it.

20 years of data. 1,289 ATH days across SPY and QQQ. CBOE spot VIX. Welch's t-tests, bootstrap CIs, permutation tests, Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction, Newey-West HAC for overlapping windows.

The result: 0 out of 20 statistical tests reached significance after FDR correction.

ATH + VIX green forward returns:

SPY 20-day: +0.28%
QQQ 20-day: +0.61%

Both positive. Both with 62%+ win rates. VIX closing green on an ATH day does not predict a reversal.

ATH days that were followed by another ATH within 20 days: 92%.

The market does not top out because VIX twitched green on a record close. ATHs cluster. Momentum is real. VIX color on the day is noise.

One conditional finding worth noting: when VIX is already above 15 and closes green on an ATH day, the forward returns are weaker. The interaction term reaches significance in the pooled model. The direction replicates across both SPY and QQQ at every horizon tested.

But the effect is small, the subset sample is limited, and it is nowhere near a tradeable signal.

The blanket claim is dead. The nuance exists but doesn't save the narrative.

Data does not care about your priors.

If this research is useful to you, a repost helps it reach the traders and investors who could benefit from it. We publish this work to be shared.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

@LogicalThesis @BryzonX Especially now that Warsh basically handed the bond market the keys to monetary policy 😂

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

Situational Un-Awareness = Sacrificial Lamb

[Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi]

There was no drone or missile attack on Saudi Arabia yesterday. They fabricated the news to justify a murderous attack on Iraq.