Nola Capital

Global Investors

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@tembelvitesi @CarioCapital @bobspaysubstack Now confirmed directly in Canada's merger register (https://t.co/m3F0U0yAJn)

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@CarioCapital @rodrigoaan @tembelvitesi @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @ArthurKaInvest @bobspaysubstack
Because the world needs another $FOUR long pitch ... starts on pg 7
https://t.co/cYxuA2Nggs

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@tembelvitesi @CarioCapital @bobspaysubstack @CarioCapital
@bobspaysubstack
@tembelvitesi
... possible that the undisclosed A2A acquisition is Paramount Commerce (https://t.co/ydLTzp00Vl). Not visible in the 10Q, but the document XBRL has ParamountCommerce tagged to acquisition section. Strong iGaming customer list $FOUR

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@tembelvitesi @CarioCapital @bobspaysubstack @tembelvitesi ... FWIW, possible that the undisclosed A2A acquisition is Paramount Commerce (https://t.co/GBTwkzZ8cJ). Not visible in the 10Q, but the document XBRL has ParamountCommerce tagged to acquisition section. Strong iGaming customer list

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@ScottFriedman3 @Dnseidel @StubHub @VividSeats Vivid go away, bc they have areas where they make money besides the B2C platform. They do $1bn+ of GOV through B2B via partnerships like CapitalOne and United, and another $500m+ via https://t.co/W6SThT5lio. They are one of the last remaining who can challenge Stub in paid search

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@ScottFriedman3 @StubHub @VividSeats Who knows if a deal gets done, but would be a no brainer for StubHub imo. Vivid spends $300m/year on paid search and has $150m of G&A… even if StubHub offered $6/share, post synergies you’re at 5x EBITDA… meanwhile StubHub trying to get 30x+ in an IPO

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@ScottFriedman3 @dave_wakeman Great analysis! I'd add... lot of talk about StubHub's $2.3bn of debt, but they also have ~$650m of redeemable preferreds (i.e., also debt), which have a liquidation pref that is growing 10%+... So if they somehow do raise $1bn, they would only be able to pay off $200m in debt

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@LogicalThesis @TobiFroning14 The vast majority of those foreign exchange losses are non cash translation losses, related to assets held in Argentine subsidiary. EBITDA is not Fx neutral

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@riceparktrees @KNLCBD My volumes are lower in 23. I’m closer to 60-62 on gas and 3.6-3.8 for oil. Shares are still outrageously cheap. Well results in Austin Chalk are looking great.

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@puppyeh1 @rogerpeskett Another non event. Diversified already does 100k+ well visits per month (new rules call for >4 checks per year). Methane fee proposed by Dems, if passed, would be less than $25m per annum

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@J_Bell25 @AkshatRathi So if we are early innings of ramping up EV, oil demand isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Can’t mine the earth or run tankers across the sea on a battery. All that being said. I think Tesla’s and EVs generally are 10x better consumer experience than combustion engine cars

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@J_Bell25 @AkshatRathi Clear there’s a lot of variance here. Based on TeslaFi, it looks like avg Model 3 is closer to 2.5-3% capacity loss per 10k miles. Definitely stories of high volume fleets doing better than that. In either scenario, the oil consumption of EVs is front loaded.

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@riceparktrees Depending on who you look at, expectations for required LNG capacity runs around 250-350 mpta by 2040. The Qatar North Field expansion would be 35 mpta of that. I think the bigger problem with getting LNG FID right now is getting long term take or pay in the face of ESG pressure

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

$BSM --> ~$2.2bn EV (~7m net acres)
$KRP --> ~$1bn EV (~750k net acres)
$TPL --> ~$13bn EV (~100k net acres)

Q1 O&G Rev:
$BSM --> $89m
$KRP --> $36m
$TPL --> $49m

(1/6)

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@Taylor__Merritt @EnergyCynic @joshyoung $BSM is crazy cheap compared to the other mineral players imo. Huge position in the LA Haynesville with the TX Haynesville just kicking back into development. Sizable Permian position + 35% or BOE/d coming from core Bakken and other non resource plays. Huge upside from Chalk

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@valor_em @chriswmayer You could buy every other listed mineral player for less than 70% of the market cap of $TPL. Would give you 2.5x the Midland/Delaware position as $TPL with many other core basins for free.

Almost all bull cases for $TPL that I have seen peg the O&G royalties at 70-80% of IV

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

@valor_em @chriswmayer Just my 2c... literally no way to make sense of the $TPL valuation. $VNOM has almost the exact footprint (100k net acres) and with better locations. It’s 1/4th the price. Lots of the fringe culberson, reeves, and pecos acreage for $TPL is very subpar.

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

This ignores the fact that $TPL is very aggressive with how they outline he perimeter of the Midland / Delaware. A lot of that acreage Culberson, Reeves, and Pecos is no bueno

(6/6)

[Nola Capital @CapitalNola]

You could buy $BSM + $VNOM + $KRP and have 2.2x the net acreage in the Midland / Delaware as $TPL for less than half the price. You would also get huge upside via Haynesville exposure with another 7m net mineral acres for free

(5/6)