Brant Hammer (Professor BTC)

Professor. Speculator. Investor. Former Banker. Opinions are my own. Likes are not always endorsements. Fix the money, fix the world. #Bitcoin. ⚡️. 🟨⬛️

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

@optimayield Banks that primarily fund themselves with a sticky, loyal deposit base, as opposed to wholesale funding or hot deposits, are usually going to perform the best in a rising rate environment.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

15 banks share SVB’s old risk mix.

Mostly uninsured deposits, long term assets and deposit costs that rose little with Fed rates. Cheap funding looks great until you have to replace it.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Software fell 27%, then rallied 49% from the low. Profit forecasts barely budged.

Investors changed their minds a lot more than analysts changed their numbers.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

“Safe haven” sounds better before you adjust for inflation.

About 31% less buying power in a decade.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

15 banks share SVB’s old risk mix.

Mostly uninsured deposits, long term assets and deposit costs that rose little with Fed rates. Cheap funding looks great until you have to replace it.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

@hibra_ai @danikkk_wqs 😂 I actually laughed. This was great.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

The trade deficit is certainly not small, but it is still far below the pre-GFC highs as a % of GDP.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Software fell 27%, then rallied 49% from the low. Profit forecasts barely budged.

Investors changed their minds a lot more than analysts changed their numbers.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

“Safe haven” sounds better before you adjust for inflation.

About 31% less buying power in a decade.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

The most profitable small caps beat the least by 4.1 points a year since 1963.

Apparently the income statement was worth opening.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

@MarioNawfal Then stop building @sama --- pretty simple. Don't sit around acting like this when you are one of those to blame for the end of civilization.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

“Outside the banking system” comes with $1.35tn in bank loans and unused lines.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Bank stocks, now without the summer markup.

1.6x book for a 12.7% ROE. Right back on the 25 year valuation line.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Banks lagged the S&P 500 on 18 of 21 days, then beat it on five of six through Oct 22.

If you own them, that change deserves attention alongside the crisis headlines.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Nonbank finance, brought to you by $1.67tn in bank loans.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

S&P 500 profits grew 60% in Q2. Remove two investment gains and it’s 38%.

Still strong growth. The hard part is working out how much can repeat.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

FAO’s food index is up 8% since February.

For reassurance, just start the chart at the 2022 peak.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Even after stripping out food and energy, producer inflation is 5.0%.

Core consumer inflation is 2.6%. Different baskets, but it’s hard to look at that and feel the job is done.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

Waiting for cheaper oil is easier when you don’t have a refinery to keep running.

Physical Brent was still $11 a barrel above front-month futures on Oct 21.

[Brant Hammer (Professor BTC) @CapitalNotes]

@LawrenceLepard @RonManX Nail on the head.