Stoa Capital

Investor / Long Only.

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

“One who holds a passion for their craft, need not draw unnecessary attention to it. There is a richness and beauty in a creative human being living anonymously.” - J. Krishnamurti

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@SupBagholder 😂

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

"Data Centres are not moonshots. They are $META's new workforce."

Excellent framing.

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@ThinkFinance999 @SupBagholder So the semis, and cloud providers are selling to bad businesses ?

[Eric Seufert @eric_seufert]

Behind in what? Frontier LLM development? Maybe. But the research that FAIR is doing is directly applicable to the ads business now, LLM development ⊆ AI research, and teams beyond MSL are pursuing AI research and development (and thus benefiting from that CapEx investment).

In other words: if you kill MSL today, it's not like all AI-related CapEx goes to $0, so the question is how important is owning a frontier LLM as an accelerant to ads growth in X months (12? 24?). Google seems to think it's important, per its earnings call. Reasonable people can debate what the amplification effect is, but if Google says it's not 0%, I'll trust them.

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

🤡

[Bloomberg @business]

Mark Zuckerberg lacks the cloud-computing business to truly justify Meta's AI spending, @DaveLeeBBG says (via @opinion) https://t.co/rCB1K7SfHB

[Jerry Capital @JerryCap]

boomers looking for signs of AI ROIC at $META

[Evergreen @evrgn11112231]

Buckle up LFG

$META

[Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® @DimitryNakhla]

In his Nomad Investment Partnership Letters, Nick Sleep highlighted a truth originally articulated by Bill Miller — one that quietly sits at the foundation of how many great investors think:

“𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐨 𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧.”

The market has to worry about everything that can happen. The investor’s job is to figure out what will happen — and stay in the middle of that probability distribution.

The cone of uncertainty widens as you look further out. So the question becomes: 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙘𝙝 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙤𝙬 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙚?

Sleep gave $COST as his answer.

Costco’s obsession with sharing scale benefits with the customer makes its future way more predictable than the average business. Lower prices drive higher member loyalty. Higher loyalty drives more revenue. More revenue drives more scale. More scale drives lower prices.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐥𝐲𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐥 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 — 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲. And that’s why $COST was Nomad’s largest holding.

His smaller positions, in his own words, had a much wider cone of uncertainty. They could perform better in certain circumstances. But the predictability simply wasn’t there — and predictability, more than anything else, is what allows you to size with conviction and hold through volatility.

This is the lens worth applying to every investment. The businesses that compress the cone of uncertainty over a 10 to 20 year horizon are the ones worth owning at meaningful weight.
___

📝 Nomad Investment Partnership Letters (Jun 2005)

[Ryan Holiday @RyanHoliday]

The Stoics hoped that one day a leader cut from their own cloth would be born, one that could redeem the empire from decay and corruption.

This star, born April 26th, 121, was named Marcus Catilius Serverus Annius Verus.

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@evrgn11112231 Rhymes with beta.

[rwlk @sherlock_hodles]

Trump every time the S&P 500 drops more than a percent

[Prepared Remarks @P_Remarks]

Meta shareholders every 3 years

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

New art project.
Train and inference GPT in 243 lines of pure, dependency-free Python. This is the *full* algorithmic content of what is needed. Everything else is just for efficiency. I cannot simplify this any further.
https://t.co/HmiRrQugnP

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

BRITAIN'S FTSE 100 UP 0.18%; GERMANY'S DAX UP 1.28%

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@R_and_Invest Any chance you can link me to the report ?

[Gurwinder @G_S_Bhogal]

RIP to @ScottAdamsSays, an unflinchingly honest sage and wit who also showed me great kindness.

In honor of him, here are 10 of my favorite Scott Adams quotes:

[Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays]

A Final Message From Scott Adams

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@evrgn11112231 @ContrarianCurse It both surprises me and excites me that so many smart folk continue to misread this.

[Stoa Capital @CapitalStoa]

@pandawatch88 Would love to go through it, available publicly ?

[koala @0xKoala]

i love this odd lots episode about a mule market maker— classic story of a trader earning huge spreads by providing liquidity to an important market

https://t.co/UPlmWJfXjA