capTEN

Contrarian Investor since 30 years, that shares understanding of sentiment, cycles, macro, elliott wave, onchain and market breadth in financial markets.

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

Someone is benefiting from the closure of the Straight of Hormoz.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.

You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.

In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 25% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.

Video: https://t.co/HdoFAnN6sC

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 is up 9 days in a row and 9 weeks in a row.

One of the strongest, most unrelenting rallies in history.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

We just barely missed the best 8-week rally in history.

This one is up 17.3% and there was a 17.4% one in 1997. Stocks gained another 22% a year later back then by the way.

In fact, never lower a year later after an 8-week win streak that gained at least 12%.

[Thomas Mayer @Thomasfvs8k]

Ich habe zunehmend Zweifel daran, dass Deutschland nur eine normale Wachstumsdelle erlebt.
Seit mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten wachsen die Staatsausgaben deutlich schneller als die reale Wirtschaft — während die Kapitalinvestitionen erstaunlich schwach bleiben.
Seit 1999 ist der staatliche Konsum um rund 63 % gestiegen. Das BIP legte dagegen nur um etwa 31 % zu, die Investitionen sogar lediglich um ungefähr 16 %.
Für mich ist genau diese Verschiebung das eigentliche Signal.

Deutschlands Stärke war nie ein großer Staat. Deutschlands Stärke waren Industrie, langfristiges Denken und die Bereitschaft, Kapital produktiv einzusetzen.
Doch genau dort wirkt die Dynamik inzwischen deutlich schwächer, während der öffentliche Sektor immer weiter wächst.
Vielleicht lässt sich dieses Modell noch eine Zeit lang stabilisieren. Aber Volkswirtschaften verlieren irgendwann ihre Energie, wenn Umverteilung schneller wächst als Produktivität.
Und genau diesen Wandel spürt man inzwischen nicht nur in den Zahlen, sondern langsam auch in der Stimmung Europas.

[G a a h @gaah_im]

The current buying pressure 🟢 on #Bitcoin is longest-lasting since December 2022 ⚠️

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Bitcoin continues to challenge the neckline of a large head-and-shoulders top, while working off its overbought condition with little or no price damage. This is very much how early bull markets have generally behaved.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the road to socialism is paved with ever-rising govt consumption. Since 1999, state consumption is up 63%, while GDP has risen only 31% and capital investment a meagre 16%. The public sector keeps expanding, but the investment base is stagnating. Germany is becoming less of a market economy and more of a state-led redistribution machine.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 23% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.

Video: https://t.co/MlNh6tnw11

[Cryptollica @Cryptollica]

THE FATE OF ALTCOINS 🔮

THE 9-YEAR LINE

If this 9-year ETH/BTC line breaks, crypto will not be the same market anymore.

This is not just an Ethereum chart.

It is the line between Bitcoin-only leadership and broad crypto expansion.

For almost a decade, every serious rotation attempt has been rejected under the same structural ceiling.

Until it breaks, it is compression.

Once it breaks, the message changes:

Risk appetite is returning.
Rotation is waking up.
The market may be preparing for a different phase. (Altseason)

Most people will only understand it after the move.
The chart usually understands it first.

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

Transactions on the Bitcoin network near all time highs

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🔥NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: “Everybody will have to use AI because if you don’t use AI you’re gonna lose your job to somebody who does.”

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Earnings have been growing so strongly that it’s hard to call this a bubble. Bubbles are about excessive valuations and a lack of earnings growth. For now we don’t have either, which is why I am not yet alarmed about the verticality of this market. It appears to be a boom. Case in point, the Mag 7 below remains in the bottom half of their earnings/valuation channel. No excess here.

One possible fly in the ointment is that much of the capex fueling the AI boom is happening at the expense of share buybacks (as cash gets depleted). We can see that below. Since April of 2025 dividends and buybacks have flatlined while capex and earnings have stayed on trend.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $7 trillion asset manager Fidelity announces support for the crypto Clarity Act and says it will "ensure the US remains a global leader in digital assets."

[CRYPFLOW @_Crypflow_]

$BTC - MACD cross incoming?

Back in March, I shared the 12D MACD bullish cross and why I was paying attention to it.

Every previous time this signal appeared,
the cycle bottom was already in.

Yes, in 2015 BTC still formed a double bottom afterwards.
But even then, Bitcoin only went slightly lower
before the real expansion phase started.

Now BTC is close to triggering that same signal again.

And honestly… what makes this cycle so interesting
is how early some of these higher timeframe signals are starting to appear during a bear market.

If the MACD confirms bullish again,
it adds another piece to the bigger reversal picture that’s slowly starting to build.

Does that guarantee the bottom is in? No.

Because history also shows something else.

In March 2020, BTC experienced a major correction after rallying too hard, too fast without building strong market structure first.

So even if the bottom is already in…
a large correction later in 2026 is still probable.

And if that happens,
that’s likely the moment you want to load up aggressively again.

[G a a h @gaah_im]

STH Loss Pressure hitting 0% for 5 consecutive days is signature of a fully cleansed market ⚠️

The forced-selling risk that plagued the ecosystem in late March has completely evaporated #Bitcoin

As long as $78k-$79k baseline holds as support, the path of least resistance is higher.

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

BREAKING:

Trump just told the entire world to buy stocks and crypto.

"You'd better start buying stocks and crypto now."
"This country is going to take off like a rocket straight up."
"Up. Up. Up."

May 14.

The same day as the CLARITY Act vote.
The same week Iran peace is being negotiated.
The same week Trump flies to Beijing.

Trump doesn't say things like this without a plan.

The last time he said something like this.
The market followed.

Don't underestimate the man's words.

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

IMO: The US is going to crush all global currencies vs the dollar, then inject StableCoin crypto dollars into the world and completely dominate.

You can invest in the infrastructure of this strategy. Invest in Stable Coin and Tokenized asset bearing blockchain native tokens.

Clarity Act and Kevin Warsh are the tipping points.

[Matthew Hyland @MatthewHyland_]

There have been dozens and dozens of bottom signals for #BTC

BTC also now has a rally that is completely abnormal to any bear market as its gone on longer than any rally in history

BTC also broke high time frame resistance so even the 2022 comparison has been invalidated

At this point the bears are relying on the outlier of all outliers to get below 60k