Captain Contrarian

Fed up with the stupidity on the left and right both, but biased to left. Let's have a new party: #SaneLibs

Warning: sarcasm, data citations, & walls of text.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

These might make a lot about the last few days (and, well, every day) make more sense.

Just to be clear, I'm susceptible to these too. I'm not saying they only impact some unspecified group of Others; it's part of being human.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

Seeing the world freak out over rising gas prices when you get 60 mpg in your hybrid 😆

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

Obviously bombing the crap out of a country is how you REDUCE the number of people there inclined to shout "death to America"

It won't make a generation of Inigo Montoya's.

And it DEFINITELY won't generate even more refugees we/other countries have to deal with 🤦

Seriously?

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@RonDeSantis It is supposed to prove that Trump is not focusing on the "worst of the worst" like he promised. The data just weren't presented well.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

Thank you. The nuance I object to is that they combine "charged with" and "convicted of" crimes, and how this influences discussions. As you can see in this FBI flowchart, people charged with a crime are very early in the process. If they had all continued through the normal justice process, a certain proportion would probably have been acquitted.

That means referring to, much less treating, all 58% (convicted + charged) as criminals is inaccurate at best and misleading at worst. It can equally be said based on trac data below that 74% (pending charges + other immigration) of detainees did not have criminal convictions. Both statements are true-ish but incomplete.

For a more relevant breakdown, CATO did a more granular set of analyses late last year and found that 27% of deportees in Nov had pending charges, 30% had a criminal conviction, and 43% were other immigration violations. The ratio was similar among detainees. Per trac reports (FOIA data from ICE), all ICE detainees as of 1/26/26 broke down as 26% convicted criminal/26% pending criminal charges/48% other immigration violations. Links in the alt text.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@LeighWolf "Nearly 60% of ICE arrestees...had criminal CHARGES or convictions"

This is America: what happened to innocent until proven guilty in a court of law?

The point remains: decreasing % w/criminal record means DHS is *focusing* less on the worst of the worst, or quantity > quality

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@realalexstone So, the same approach:
Trump took with regards to the left;
Biden (if you ask the right) took w/the right;
And Trump 1.0 (to a lesser degree) took w/the left.

You can't ignore and steamroll things half the country cares about -while mocking them- without consequences.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@grok @GOPGAY77091 @SteveRattner @CBSNews @grok I meant, is being here illegally a criminal offense?

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@GOPGAY77091 @SteveRattner @CBSNews @grok is this true?

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@OckhamMan @SteveRattner @CBSNews They don't specify what percent were convicted vs only charged with crimes.

Remember that "presumed innocent until proven guilty by a court of law" thing that has set America apart as a nation subject to the rule of law?

This isn't about immigration, it's about principle.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@snowta @SteveRattner @CBSNews Only some do. Overstaying a visa is a civil infraction like a parking ticket. Only literally sneaking across the border is "illegal entry".

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

Conservative commentator: “They could’ve found somebody more uniting.”

Jon Stewart: “Why the hell is it the Super Bowl halftime performer’s job to unify the country? Isn’t there literally someone else whose entire job description is that?”

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@LaboratoryMan6 @AVGirl4Life But thank you for trying to find a source and fact check. 👍

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@LaboratoryMan6 @AVGirl4Life Note that many current democrat voters were children or teens at the time.

And Congress is just factions over all else: Dem leaders wouldn't stand up to human rights abuses by a Dem pres any more than Rep leaders will stand up to abuses of states' rights by a Rep pres 🤷

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@XFreeze But of course, it doesn't count as censorship to remove Vance getting booed at the Olympics from the coverage American audiences see 🤔

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@spooked75 I was about to comment about how individualist vs collectivist attitudes in the US and Europe impact policy options

However, apparently the US has gone from #1 on individualism metrics to #23

So I guess now anything is possible once we sort out our national identity crisis? 🤷

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@davidmgrimm @RichardHanania @adamscochran The definition of "conservative" has kind of been tainted too, so I suspect even polling that asks for both affiliation and ideology may not show the whole picture. But people are clearly upset with parties-see recent Gallup poll here.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@woodrow4co @RichardHanania Cognitive biases come with being human. They aren't exclusive to conservatives or liberals. We can compensate if we know about them, but they're still there for when we forget.
~fellow liberal

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@DulleChad @RichardHanania On the flip side, Joe Rogan still beats all but 3 on that list (2 + tie with CBS) for conservatives.

What I find interesting is how there's a single majority conservative source (Fox) but the closest equiv on the left is the cluster of CNN, ABC, and NBC.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

@_amandaclaypool @RichardHanania @nytimes The others lie too, it's just harder to fact check live video/audio than a written article that waits for you to look something up and come back to where you left off. By the time you've fact checked one claim on TV, you have three more to check and the topic has changed.

[Captain Contrarian @CapnContrarian]

Well if that doesn't just sum up the difference between normal voters and the politically active/vocal minority... "Normal people vote Republican because they dislike pressing 1 for English and new gender pronouns, but by doing so they end up empowering men in glasses who think environmental regulations are too strict and don’t pass cost-benefit analysis, even if every single environmental regulation probably polls well in isolation."