Casey Breen

[Catherine Sullivan @cthrin]

@BobbyAllyn Traders rely on this information to understand who’s trading with and against them in the orderbook. The larger the position, the more conviction - making up one of many market signals people look at before trading.

[Casey Breen @CaseyBreen12216]

@udeshjha @Kalshi @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara Pretty wild what this team gets done with fewer than 200 people. Proud to be a part of it

[Udesh Jha @udeshjha]

I worked for more than a decade and a half at CME leading risk and I moved to Kalshi this year.

What attracted me to @Kalshi initially was the predictions market, the regulation-first and risk-management first principles that @mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara have built the firm upon.

But what has also been another true eye opener for me is Kalshi’s efficiency and speed of execution in getting the results while preserving the rigor.

With a staff strength of less than 200 people to have built a full stack exchange and clearinghouse that runs and clears 24x7 markets, first to launch regulated perpetuals and a surveillance team that handles $30B in volumes a month and millions of users are just a few examples of the credible markets we serve.

And definitely proud NOT to be encumbered with bloated staff and management layers.

[Jeff Bandman @BandmanJeff]

Maybe you should learn a bit about efficiency - Does Terry Duffy @CMEGroup have more people in his regulatory department than @Kalshi has in the entire company? Question of the day from @luanalopeslara

[robertjdenault @robertjdenault]

CME knows that where there are markets, there will be bad actors trying to manipulate them. That's why CME has brought thousands of actions over the years for market manipulation. And that's a good thing! The response to bad actors isn't to throw away good products, it's to police and punish the bad actors.

[Old Bull TV @OldBullTV]

Best 30 seconds of the whole hearing. Well done, @luanalopeslara!

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

We ran a study on over 2 million markets to evaluate their calibration. To our knowledge, this is the largest replicable study on this topic.

Here are the results: 🧵

[robertjdenault @robertjdenault]

Kalshi doesn’t list war or wildfire markets because they create bad incentives and are inconsistent with the CEA. Just like one politician doesn’t define everyone in Washington, one offshore prediction market doesn’t define the whole industry.

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Esoteric or niche hedges are difficult through traditional insurers or re-insurers.

Competitive exchanges make it possible by matching those who have the risk but cannot bear it with those who do not have the risk but are actively looking for idiosyncratic returns.

[Brandon Beckhardt @beckhardt]

Be Tim Arrowsmith
> Be goat herder in Redding, California
> Literally live in a place called "Poverty Flats" because the gold rush skipped it
> Region is prime wildfire territory
> Realize goats eat everything, including the dry brush that fuels fires
> Build a business renting out goats to clear land and stop wildfires
> Pay your herders $60k/year, feed your family, save California from burning
> Life is good
> 2023: California decides herders "on call" should get paid ag overtime
> $60k salaries become $240k overnight
> That's bankruptcy, fired employees, and goats sold to the slaughterhouse
> Go on the news circuit, fight like hell, win an extension to July 2026
> July 2026 arrives
> Back on the defensive
> Run the math: no exemption = $500k in costs
> This would ruin you
> 90% sure you'll win in Sacramento, but 90% isn't 100%
> Try to find insurance for "state legislature ruins my goat business"
> It doesn't exist
> Wall Street makes custom hedges like this every day... for clients worth millions
> You herd goats. Wall Street doesn't pick up
> Go to Kalshi instead
> Ask for a market on your own exemption
> Make a $50k trade AGAINST the exemption at 10% odds
> Win in Sacramento? $50k for peace of mind
> Lose? Kalshi pays out $500k and covers everything
> Either way: family fed, workers employed, goats alive
> The ultimate hedge

Be Tim Arrowsmith
Unruinable

[Jeff Bandman @BandmanJeff]

Some professional announcements are purely career moves. For me, this feels like coming home to family.
I’m returning to @Kalshi as CEO of Kalshi Prime.

https://t.co/pKTDeR79xF

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won.

Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken.

The Washington Post analyzed prediction market calibration on hundreds of primary races — here's what they found:

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

2026 journalism:
> define agenda: “PMs are terrible”
> handpick ppl to validate. ignore everyone else
> write

[Giga Based Dad @GigaBasedDad]

The energy coming out of Corrupt Kathy Hochul right now

[Inverse Cramer @CramerTracker]

This article is fake, but it’s even funnier when you realize her personal stock portfolio includes a bunch of bio companies that almost entirely rely on drug tests

Like Eli Lilly, Boston Scientific, Stryker, and even the US healthcare ETF

Politicians are literally the worst. The gaslighting must stop

[Keaton @KeatonInglis]

@NYGovPress You wrote two fake tweets politicizing cancer to score points.

Read that again.

[Luana Lopes Lara @luanalopeslara]

This is flat out a lie.

The markets are on FDA approvals, which help researchers and investors develop life-saving drugs more effectively and faster.

I'm here if you want to learn more about these markets and how they can bring more transparency and efficiency to a complex industry.

[Jacki McGavick @jackikotkiewicz]

Kalshi Head of Enforcement @robertjdenault sets the record straight: Our markets are "heavily regulated."

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

Introducing the Kalshi Public Companies Hub.

Earnings updates, KPI forecasts, earnings call mentions, and livestream links — all in one place.

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Judge me by my enemies:

1. Casinos
2. Insider traders
3. George Santos