The average man today has chronically low testosterone.
Low T makes you weak, unmotivated, and docile.
My 30,15,7,5,3 method fixes this.
Let me break it down:
Midterm elections generally make for a boring year in the markets - but the end of the year tends to bring fireworks.
A good year to DCA the S&P - and $BTC too.
Eyes on Q4. Should be fun.
$BTC In between these important high timeframe weekly levels.
Currently, the Weekly 200MA/EMA are holding as support for the past few weeks. But Bitcoin has been unable to bounce properly just yet.
Above, the bull market support band, which was lost in November, is acting as resistance and is moving down fast.
$ETH Has been extremely stable when charted against $BTC over the past month.
The two are moving in unison as the ETH/BTC ratio remains in this tiny range.
Horizontal levels remain relevant. ETH needs to clear that 0.03 level first if it wants to start outperforming again.
Bitfinex whales have started buying $BTC again.
They bought heavily around the $63,000 level and then started selling Bitcoin once the price broke above $70,000.
Now, they are accumulating again, and maybe another rally could follow next.
ETH/BTC has been struggling to break out of its 8-year downtrend for a long time now.
Whenever this breakout happens, I think $ETH will pull a move similar to Silver.
$BTC / Bitcoin
Still looking like it wants to sweep the $74K zone from April 2025 before bouncing. Zero divergences in the multi-oscillator so far. Price is matching the backend sentiment.
RSI Matrix still trending down, but once it starts forming a lower high, we should see some rallies back into overhead resistance.
Key levels to watch: ~$81K and ~$85K.
Flipping $85K would shift short-term structure to neutral and slow the bleeding, but most likely just sets the lower high before continuation down.
This assumes we don't break below $74K and take out more structure first.
For people asking where to long, there's exponential risk trading counter-trend. The trend is your friend, and right now it's heading down. If anything, you should be shorting rallies into overhead resistance.
$ETH
30 min - developing an interesting LTF range here.
We swept the lows a few times, and price has now given a LTF MSB. First since the drop down a few days ago.
So purely from a range perspective, it makes sense to attempt a long, trying to enter on the local demand, as close as possible to the range low and on those Fibonacci levels. I have left two separate orders.
Invalidation below the latest lows.
Caveat: we have just below an HTF unswept swing low, so potentially a liquidity target. It might be taken sooner or later, ideally for this trade later as possible.
"Bitcoin must hold $74k". This is what a majority of bullish Bitcoin holders are saying must hold or they will finally turn bearish.
I agree. Breaking $74k would put in a lower low. I marked similar areas in green, from the past cycles.
Once the lower low is created, the 200W MA comes quickly. It currently sits at $57k.
$ZEC / Zcash
Short target met at $270. Relief bouncing as expected.
Price reclaimed the 61.8% zone at $310, which was crucial in preventing a flush to the 78.6% mark at $200. But unless $330 gets reclaimed short-term, high probability it retests $270 again.
Key metric here is the 200 SMA on the daily. Consecutive closes below and I think it slowly grinds toward $200.
For the chart to flip neutral, it needs a rally to $450. That would trigger a two-level breakout of the descending trendline + horizontal resistance.
Huge corrections like this are exactly why marrying narratives in crypto is dangerous. Much easier to play the chart in front of you.
By the time you understand the incoming move, you'll understand what the narrative is about to be anyway.
Slightly tricky that $ETH couldn't hold support.
It broke support against #Bitcoin.
What's next?
Two scenarios:
- Continuation of the correction to 0.026 and finding a bottom there (that's another 10-15% down).
- Fast recovery and reclaim of 0.03250.
I don't think the latter is the most likely, and the first still implies that we're in an $ETH market where a higher low signals that a new uptrend is on the horizon later in the year.
Historically, this is the area where the bear market of $BTC is about to end or ends.
Why?
RSI <30 vs. Gold is a trigger that has been hit during the bear market low in 2015, 2018 and 2022.
It's hitting again.
$BTC [macro update V3]
And the date ended up being the second of Feb.
The day where our macro market maker manipulation playbook gets completed.
Techically speaking we haven't officially swept the range low yet but I always frontrun my TP limit orders and from here I am shifting my primary focus to looking for reactions of demand and new range creations rather than bearish continuations.
It has been an absolute incredible ride and I hope I was able to contiously make sure everyone following me was on the right side of the market, either protecting capital or profiting immensly on the move down.
Mastery.
There's another few billion dollars in liquidations incoming if $BTC breaks below this macro support and sweeps $70K.
A ton of liquidity stacked below $74K.
Just a matter of time IMO.