Nasdaq red flag. First time I remember seeing 3 days of net lows as the index hits fresh highs. Watch exposure levels and have stops prepared. Net lows in lower panel. Red background shows an unhealthy market. https://t.co/XvGyQ4ZnDe
Finra debt margin YoY growth decreased a little in July thanks to Citadel & co action.
This indicator was really good to spot 2000, 2007 & 2021 tops. Worth keeping in eye on it...
European banks have outperformed because their share price was flat from the GFC to 2022.
ECB rising rates was the game changer.
Société Générale & BNP are in the Top 5 of Gator Capital Mngt funds (very great funds specialized in financial holdings)
@LeNoobInvest Si tu sais quels sont les raisons pour lesquelles tu vendras cet ETF, c'est OK. Mais des assets qui ne font rien pendant 10-15 ans et font un parabolic run au bout de 15 ans, c'est classique (tu peux regarder le métal Argent-XAG par exemple qui a fait son bull run jusqu'en 01/26)
So, in the past couple of months management has led investors down in some FinX favorites.
I can recall $EOSE, $TE, and $POET stocks plunged after management heavily missed revenue guidance or just management mistakes.
For an individual investor it is not always easy to digest the whole management team, let alone rate them.
I've done a lot of research last night to management frameworks. McKinsey, Morgan Stanley, BCG, Morningstar,... all have papers on rating management.
The problem?
Most of them are focusing on established companies. They focus on ROI, Free Cash flow, and dividends. If I build a framework like this, the management of high growth companies always have a bad score.
So, I wanted to create something different. An honest and objective framework on management. As I don't want to include too much financial figures, a bit will always be subjective.
The 5 categories:
Category 1: The Say-Do Ratio (Maximum 30 Points):
The Say-Do Ratio tracks the historical reliability of management's public promises versus their actual execution. In pre-profit companies, trust is the only currency; if management cannot accurately forecast their own engineering and sales timelines, their financial projections are entirely worthless.
Category 2: Communication & Transparency (Maximum 20 Points):
This category measures the integrity, clarity, and psychological tone of executive communication. It assesses whether management treats investors as intelligent partners or as targets for manipulation.
Category 3: Capital & Dilution Discipline (Maximum 25 Points):
For pre-profit companies, managing the share structure is just as important as managing the product. A brilliant technology will still result in zero shareholder returns if the equity is diluted into oblivion before commercialization.
Category 4: Founder-Led & Insider Alignment (Maximum 15 Points):
This category assesses whether management shares the same financial fate as retail and institutional investors, embodying the skin in the game philosophy.
Category 5: Strategic Focus (Maximum 10 Points):
This measures the company's ability to stay on course, defending its economic moat rather than chasing the latest technological fad to generate short-term retail interest.
Does it work? It looks like it.
Some examples:
$POET: 19/100
$EOSE: 35/100
$TE: 28/100
$PL: 88/100
$RKLB: 79/100
To make it easy, I did put my framework in a Gem. If you want to do the same, please copy paste the framework and instruction that I have put in the comments.
It should be possible in every LLM, not just Gemini. If you don't have a paid subscription on any model, just ask me. I will put in in my model and give you the score with the major red and green flags.
I don't want to buy more S&P500 here because I am already loaded. It always depends on your timeframe.
Fwd PE (20,6) + Inflation (3,4%) = 24. This high but it was 28 in 2000 and 2021.
If you buy S&P500 here, just define your timeframe and goal.
BILLIONAIRE PAUL TUDOR JONES WARNS INVESTORS NOT TO BUY S&P 500 RIGHT NOW:
“IF YOU BUY THE S&P AT THIS CURRENT VALUATION, THE 10-YEAR FORWARD RETURNS ARE NEGATIVE WHEN YOU BUY WITH THE S&P P/E OF 22. THAT'S WHAT HISTORY SHOWS.”
JONES CALLED THE 1987 CRASH BEFORE IT HAPPENED.
HE'S NOT PREDICTING A CRASH.
HE SAYS THE CURRENT SETUP IS MORE LEVERAGED THAN ANYTHING HE'S SEEN, INCLUDING 2008.
“THE STOCK MARKET'S REALLY HIGH, AND IT'S GOING TO BE REALLY HARD TO MAKE MONEY FROM HERE.”
Portfolio update.
Current public equity core:
$IREN
$ONDS
$NBIS (new)
$ASTS
$NUAI
$KRKNF
Sold:
$RKLB
$AMPG
$SIVE
$ASPI
$DGXX
Main reason for selling was simple - they ran hard. Across the group I averaged roughly 100% returns in a short period.
At that point the question changed.
Does this dollar still belong here, or does it belong in my highest conviction names today?
Purely a capital allocation question.
Like the names, respect the runs, move the money to where the better asymmetry is.
As always, these are my positions today, not a promise about tomorrow.
$QCOM
One of, if not the tightest descending triangle on the market
Lower volume as we push into the apex
I would not bet surprised so see a 5-10% snapback breakout
If we are lucky enough to see continuation, this could be explosive
$sofi just launched their stablecoin with a whopping $60k transaction. It is 13 years behind $crcl. Yes it is 13 years behind which is like 3 crypto cycles. AND circle does about $1bil tx per month around their peak.
No, i don't trust @sofi leadership.