Swing Trader

Investor. Business Owner. I swing trade sexy & unsexy (mostly unsexy) 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇦 stocks. Love dividends, selling options, #silver & macro econ.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

I love owning stocks. I get giddy owing companies that work for me when I’m sick, when I’m tired, and when I just plain don’t feel like working.

Owning assets provides freedom, and freedom is true wealth. Wealth isn't a number; it's the ability to do what you want when you want.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Also, since you're following this cluster f*** more closely than basically anyone, it'd be really helpful to retail investors if you let people know (as I'm sure you will) when voting instructions are sent out, or of any class action lawsuits that arise.

Thanks again for everything you're doing. Keep fightin' the good fight.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Thanks for putting in a ton of work analyzing just a how deep the rot goes. I can't believe how brazen Tom's actions have been. I hope that enough of the retail investors he hoped to swindle will band together vote against this crook.

My wife and I own about 15,700 shares. I know my extended family owns shares as well (I estimate another 5000 shares). We'll be voting no.

Any idea who the bigger fish are that will fight against this deal? @Cole_Smead? Any hedge funds? etc?

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@Nick_duCat Very true. I recently heard from a friend who works in credit at one of the big Canadian banks that with AI, etc, the forgeries and fraud have gone to the next level. I do think in Canada, though, financial crimes rarely get more than a slap on the wrist or stern warning.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@Jmacvbvbv @NuggetCapital I thought HR.UN was one of the better 🇨🇦 REITS, with a nice portfolio of assets. Never realized how crooked the CEO was.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@Jasonbourne5947 @BubleQe Just starting to.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@BubleQe I could see $AAV.TO, $WCP.TO or even $TOU.TO.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@BubleQe Who do you think is next?

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@StonksGoUp99 All good - thanks for checking in! Just takes a lot of work to post, and I'm busy running my businesses and trading. At some point when I get more time, I may start posting again.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Scary if this materializes …

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Remember this scene in The Big Short?

Jamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market.

They've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong.

Then they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender in America - has filed for bankruptcy.

"It's starting."

That was April 2, 2007. New Century wasn't the crisis. It was 1% of the problem. But it was the first domino.

4 months later, BNP Paribas froze 3 funds citing "complete evaporation of liquidity." 18 months after that, Lehman was dead.

I'd encourage you to watch that scene today. Because we JUST got our New Century moment in private credit:

Blue Owl Capital - $307 billion in assets under management - just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II.

Investors will NEVER AGAIN redeem shares from this fund.

On January 25th, I wrote that private credit was showing cracks at the exact moment Wall Street wanted to open it up to your 401(k).

3 weeks later, here we are.

The timeline follows a pattern anyone who's been around markets long enough recognizes:

Through the first 9 months of 2025, OBDC II investors withdrew $150 million - up 20% year over year.

Meanwhile, Blue Owl execs publicly assured investors there was "no meaningful pressure" on their asset base.

But there was. And they're now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for saying otherwise.

In November, they attempted a merger that would have forced OBDC II investors into a publicly traded fund trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Effectively confiscating a fifth of their capital.

Blue Owl's own CFO conceded investors "could take a potential haircut." The stock dropped 11% in 8 days. They killed the deal.

Now they've abandoned the pretense entirely. PERMANENT halt. Fire-selling $1.4 billion in loans across three funds.

Investors get roughly 30% of NAV back through quarterly distributions - on Blue Owl's schedule, not theirs.

One delightful detail:

Blue Owl's co-CEOs have pledged $1.9 billion of their OWN company shares as collateral for personal loans - proceeds used, in part, to acquire the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January.

Founders leveraging company stock for hockey teams while retail investors queue up for their own money. Wall Street's version of noblesse oblige.

But here's what matters:

This isn't about Blue Owl.

Blue Owl is a symptom.

The disease is a $3.4 TRILLION private credit industry built on opacity, conflicts of interest, and the polite fiction that illiquid assets can offer liquid redemptions.

Morningstar DBRS reports the trailing default rate has risen to 4%, up from 2.8% a year ago.

Downgrades outpacing upgrades. Outlook negative. UBS warns defaults could reach 13% if AI disrupts the software companies making up 17% of BDC loan portfolios.

Payment-in-kind loans (where borrowers can't pay cash interest and simply pile it onto the debt) have surged past 11% of BDC income.

When your borrowers are paying you with IOUs, the word "income" deserves quotation marks.

And the government's response?

Open YOUR 401(k) to private credit.

Trump's executive order directed regulators to do exactly that.

They want to "democratize" an asset class whose flagship retail product just permanently locked investors out.

The KKRs. The Blackstones. The Apollos. Everyone loaded up on private credit is exposed.

When the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked.

In April 2007, New Century went bankrupt.

Most of the financial world shrugged. 17 months later, Lehman made the point impossible to ignore.

And Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions TODAY.

AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT

AVOID PRIVATE EQUITY

Because it's starting...

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

My typical playbook is to sell geopolitical spikes. This time feels different. Iran striking its regional neighbours was unexpected and massively escalatory, putting oil infrastructure at risk and making insurance on vessels through the Strait for now uneconomic. Without decisive regime change it’s reasonable to expect an enduring risk premium in the oil price, greater than what we've historically seen, and especially with the “twilight of shale” and rapid OPEC spare capacity exhaustion happening in real-time. For equities this is coinciding with a massive rotation out of tech/software into hard assets like energy (32% of the S&P500 now chasing <6%), with the energy sector still out-of-favour and under-owned. What to own? Long-life, high margin, low growth, high free cashflow assets in politically safe jurisdictions 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@BubleQe Bull flag time.

And look at the size of that flag pole (that’s what she said).

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Software…

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$IGV The chart EVERYONE is watching.

The most perfect MOAT line ever that spans 18 years!!

Wow.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@ClaytonArnall @dividendology What’s your view on on Microsoft?

[Dividendology @dividendology]

🚨 BREAKING:

JP Morgan analysts just compiled a list of 19 software stocks that they believe 'are AI resistant'.

What do you think of their list?

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Way to tell ‘em Eric! Hopefully the government listens, but I’m not holding my breath.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Highlights from my testimony to the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Natural Resources - opening statement

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

@BeardoTrader There's an inordinate number of beautiful towns in the Toulouse region. Plus it's one of the least touristy parts of France, which we loved.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

Only stayed their one night in Andorra la Vella, passing through. TBH, was not our favourite (felt very commercialized verse everywhere else. I loved driving through the Pyrenees though on both the French and Spanish side. If you're doing Southern France, there are ton of amazing towns to stop in. We did a bunch on this list (highly recommend): https://t.co/8IpONkcHjI

Some highlights were Gourdon, Cordes-Sur-Ciel, Evol, and Rocamadour, to name a few, in France. Not sure if they'll be on your way or not.

[Swing Trader @cdnstocktrader]

First Golden Cross in CN Rail ( $CNR.TO 🇨🇦 / $CNI 🇺🇸 ) since December 2023!

50, 100 and 200 day moving averages all curling up, with price clearly above the 200DMA.

Feels like a clear trend reversal.