Paulo Cesar Ferraro

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@realTheoElliott Furthermore, the fact that people now consider opposing the inclusion of trans girls in girls' sports, or holding a personal pro-life stance, to be conservatism is just further evidence of the enormous success liberals have had in shifting the culture in their favor.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@realTheoElliott Scott Colom will vote for liberal judges who will advance liberal causes. This alone makes his victory, and that of other Democrats in red states, a major net gain for liberals.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@GottheimerHater @StatisticUrban Secondly, no one seems to notice how the Overton window shifts. If being personally pro-life, and opposed to the inclusion of trans girls in girls' sports is now classified as "conservatism," then that serves as further confirmation of the immense success liberals have had.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@GottheimerHater @StatisticUrban First of all, Scott Colom and other red state Dems will vote for liberal judges who will do many liberal things. Even if red state Dems were to vote like Republicans on everything except judicial nominations, getting them elected would still be a huge win for liberal causes.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@SethAbrams1 @GoopLloyd @umichvoter @electionsjoe Dems need to try to find serious overperformers to have the best chance in these states in 2028. Utah is arguably the red state most likely to flip, assuming a very blue environment, simply because of how extreme Mike Lee is, but there is no reason not to try in the other states.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@okaythenfuture @WarmOceanM @ivvedoneitall @TheMindScourge @StatisticUrban Some sources: https://t.co/RhUCjpyKJ5
https://t.co/l2oDXSDAkB
https://t.co/4LFGneRvbH
https://t.co/x00rofb9xA

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@okaythenfuture @WarmOceanM @ivvedoneitall @TheMindScourge @StatisticUrban AOC is even more popular than Schumer among overall voters in New York State. Of course, anything can happen in elections, so there’s no guarantee that AOC would win a primary against Schumer, but going by the numbers, she would likely be the favorite.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@SunnyDfan4eva @steve_tolle @cryyymore @RobFoxThree @umichvoter You have to consider that Democrats currently have an advantage in midterms and special elections. What does the map look like in 2030?

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@pelvis_man @CameronCorduroy The measure in Missouri failed because of abortion. But yeah, on the issue of AA, and on the issue of transgender individuals in sports, conservatives hold the popular position. This has been known for a long time. Even California voted against affirmative action recently.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@pelvis_man @CameronCorduroy Okay, I just remember a time when abortion was considered a gender issue because it was a women’s rights issue, but I guess now gender issues are all about transgender issues, and women’s rights are just good old-fashioned tradition? Liberals keep winning.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@Afinetheorem @arindube I agree that 3 points is a lot in a close election, but not every election is close, and, as I said, one might easily accept that penalty in exchange for what they perceive to be better policy. After all, people because of policies.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@Afinetheorem @arindube In this election, looking at the Senate races I mentioned, it is quite easy to argue that the slight underperformance of progressive candidates was due to other significant factors.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@pelvis_man @CameronCorduroy What referendums were those? If you look at the referendums on abortion, Democrats continue to crush conservatives everywhere, except in a few of the most conservative US states.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@PiscoLitty El-Sayed did slightly underperformed Benson, however, one could easily argue that this is because he is Muslim. Another comparison is Minnesota, where Flanagan underperformed Klobuchar by 3%, though, in this case, one could argue that Flanagan’s opponent was stronger.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@PiscoLitty Basically, these comparisons tend to be uninformative because they do not control for several relevant factors. Take El-Sayed, as you say, the appropriate comparison is between El-Sayed and Benson, rather than candidates in other states, where the dynamics were different.

[Paulo Cesar Ferraro @CesarFerraro11]

@Afinetheorem @arindube In the case of Minnesota, it’s 3%, but as I mentioned, you can easily explain these differences by the fact that Flanagan’s opponent was stronger. In the case of Michigan, you can easily explain El-Sayed’s underperformance relative to Benson by the fact that El-Sayed is a Muslim.