@CumberlandSays@jvb_xyz Other Downside Risks
3. Continued hawkish fed, rates higher for longer/strong dollar
4. More institutional abandonment for multiple reasons
5. Brain drain back into more traditional fields due to market malaise/apathy or menacing regulation creep
The ETHPoW future on BitMEX has over $10M notional two-sided liquidity on a 19/23 market⦠see how that lines up with the premium that spot ETHUSD is trading over the Sep and Dec ETH futures, which is 20-22 now. Arb opportunities and derivatives liquidity keep everything in line
@BillAckman Bill, why not take more into account how far most of the major commodities have already sunk? Your focus on CPI may prove to be backward looking
All of the US wage growth since the start of the borrowing/printing binge has been a mirage, up 12.3% in nominal terms but -1.5% after adjusting for higher prices. Initially, everyone loves "free money." It's only w/ the passage of time that the ravages of inflation are revealed.
That's a hard call to make, but what's not hard is to judge the failure of the Fed who were given a bread crumb trail of evidence of a bad moon a-risin' more than a year ago and chose to do NOTHING with it until it was too late.
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The last two trading days in the US markets have been very interesting. The bond market has been on an absolute tear higher (price-wise that is). Stonks have taken shelling, but have been resilient and settled strong both days. Diving a bit deeper...
1/11
If the turn in rates lasts, a stock and crypto bottom is likely in. If the rate market rally is a fraud (see recent Bill Ackman thoughts), bonds are a sale and stocks/crypto could be in for more rough sledding.
10/11