Rob Levy

former CBOE/CME options MM | on-chain settlement for the win | building AMMs @oddsfi | taking event markets from 0 to 💯 @100sEvents | fair, lit markets for all

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@RepYassAnsari this is beyond your skill set. stick to what you actually comprehend

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@dara_venture @HashgraphVC Studs

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@levicook You’re right to push back here

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@KeyboardMonkey3 @EasusJ running $CALUDE

[Lauris @lzminsky]

a fascinating read. important for some of the binary microstructure we’re all nooding around. Rob is a highly experienced trader, so he knows his chops.

and thank you for citng my working paper within the work! honored.

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

For fifty years, options have traded above the risk that actually shows up. Implied over realized, year after year. Finance calls the gap the variance risk premium (VRP): what option sellers get paid for the times realized blows right through implied. I spent years on the floors of the Cboe and CME collecting that premium, and occasionally getting run over by the reason it exists.

Event contracts are the same trade in a purer form. A binary pays $1 or $0 on a state of the world, and nothing else. The size of the move doesn't matter, only whether it happens. These contracts trade on lit order books every day now, at size, and the price doesn't sit right at the probability of the event. That wedge needed a name.

The State Risk Premium. The paper defines it, decomposes it, lays out how to measure it. It's a first draft, posted like a market: priced where I see it, ready to be hit or lifted.

https://t.co/hiR3KOJ1oR

Thoughts, comments, discussion welcome.

I've been building. More soon.

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@neuralunlock @yrschrade @shawnlim Big congrats Arjun! Keep killing it

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@lzminsky

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

the pleasure's mine, and mutual. loved the conversation and i think we're just scratching the surface of where this goes. the event risk space is the most exciting place to be in markets rn, without a doubt.

[Lauris @lzminsky]

Second time I’ve heard on a call that someone is citing my research for both trading and product design

big shoutout to @robbylevy @DaedalusRsch and @shawpredicts. i truly am humbled

time for a major rewrite soon, though.

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@MarioNawfal Cmon man. You can’t say this is fact. Do better.

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

Claude is down…. again

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@gogogunny The stars are indeed aligned.

[Gunny @gogogunny]

Shayne wasn’t kidding.

Seriously, the timing of Poly’s roll out into short-term up/down markets couldn’t be better. Love to see it.

Some killer contributors building some very exciting twists to these “Hxro” markets on OddsFi.

Close to release.

$HXRO ~> $ODDS

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

Claude: "This isn't working right now. You can try again later"

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@hosseeb muh banks

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@thenarrator LFG

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@mert Zoink. Scooby Doo theme as it’s Shaggy’s line. They are always unmasking the hidden/shielded. Theme has legs for branding - it’s approachable. “Stay masked” … “Stay shielded”…. Shielded transactions = mystery mode.

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

@mert

[Rob Levy @robbylevy]

Congrats B!

[bartosz |🧊 @baalazamon]

Took Meshflow Acquisition Corp public today, @Nasdaq $MESHU

Actively seeking top operators & category-defining cos in infra, fintech, mission-critical sw to take public.

Building something big? Tag your co or DM.

In Abu Dhabi all wk meeting teams & eval opps.

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

this explains why much of TradFi is making a full court press all at once to get their customers into crypto. even less likely ones like Vanguard allowing ETFs and Schwab to add native asset trading

while most of CT has resigned itself to a bear market

interesting