Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.
My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.
I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:
- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”
And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.
But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.
And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.
I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.
Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.
Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
If you're spending more than an hour a day reading what dozens of different accounts are saying about the exact same topic on X, you really should find something else to do
$NBIS
I'm one of those people who think stock price well reflects the company's current situation
While there may be some volatility along the way, I believe the long-term trend is reliable.
Just look at the chart of $NBIS. Than look at its peer group $IREN, $CRWV.
Than look at $MU, Samsung electronic, and sk hynix.
In the memory sector, one company's strong earnings often lifts the stock prices of its peers.
On the neocloud sector, potential debt burdens and share dilution risks drag down peers.
$NBIS gets higher valuation because it's simply a better company.
If other two prove themselves, we might get a positive feedback.
$NBIS
Why some people think nebius is completly changing their business model to asset-light approach?
They're just adding more cash flow. That is neutral at worst, if everything fails.
If I add a part time job, does that make me quitting my main job?
They made a system that works
and now they're selling that system.
https://t.co/InHRzgbzfY
Read and think for your self. Never let any other do it for you.
This news from $NBIS honestly makes me 2-3x more bullish on the company and the stock price. Dead serious. The upside just got so much bigger for $NBIS shareholders.
I’ve been saying for months that $NBIS has the best stack and their recent acquisitions in Eigen, Tavily and Clarifai just reinforces that.
Meanwhile there’s dozens of smaller data center companies, most of whom pivoted from BTC mining that have land and power but they don’t have the stack that $NBIS has.
This is such a massive win for everyone and will help the smaller data center companies close bigger deals by licensing the $NBIS stack.
$NBIS has gotten more focused on token optimization/efficiency which is going to be a massive competitive advantage in the near future.
I love how this team continues to execute and raise the bar.
My biggest position in my port $NBIS
Used to worry $160 could be the short term top.
But seeing so many hates and curses this stock gets, I feel at ease
@Orangeman1992 My short term target was $200, so definitely de-leverage there. (nebx, options etc.)
With stock, I'm just gonna hold and partially trade to nebx and option every time it hits channel bottom.
$NBIS
When everyone's looking for $200, it's either
1. Top is right below 200 mocking bulls
2. Price breakout over 200 mocking bears/swing trader who put their order on $199.99
If nebius successfully form a bull flag next week, it's gonna go over 200, and possibly hit $235 on earning call.
Monday and Tuesday price action is most important.
Bought $USO puts.
Gonna hold it til war ends.
Stock market is already pricing end of the war.
So my guess is oil price will drop sharply but stock price won’t be as sensitive even if it really ends.