Christoff

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@Montes0318 @anncormican @RepThomasMassie Crazy part is we lambasted the Brits for wanting to return Diego Garcia just a few months ago..

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@AndyHal15523851 @anncormican @RepThomasMassie The language states Ceuta is on Morrocon territory, a somewhat biased take, imo.
Morroco didnt even exist as a sovereign nation until 1956 and Ceuta has been owned by Spain since the 17th Century.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@WacyKitty @CouchTaterAnlst @MagaGrunt1 @Htobin888Tobin Better than MN, my taxes have increased +80% in 6yrs. Wish my income had.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@BRoyJohnson1 @VigilantFox True, just incase hos lawyers can argue that in will only count as one time. If not get him for 500...

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

Iran and Ukraine war.
Its not just about crude oil, its the refining that is the problem. U.S mainly produces light sweet crude and imports heavy sour from Canada, mostly. U.S refineries are geared up for the heavy sour type and are running at 95% capacity. Heavy sour gives us diesel and aviation fuel.
Refineries are being blown up in the middle east and Russia which have done a lot of the refining for the world. Russia has stopped exporting diesel due to shortages. This supply taken off the world market further forces price increases.
Its a huge mess and is going to get far far worse, imo.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@CTS1630 @Steven_Doe @mitchellvii Good points! Although I swear I heard something about no wars? Crazy me.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

Oil price is cheap because there isn't enough refining infrastructure, hence why gas is expensive.
Russia will stop exporting all refined products before long and U.S refining is running at 95% capacity.
Add in recent and future destruction of refineries in GCC, it going to leave Asia to pick up the slack.
Oil will rise but refined products are going to be a killer, recession bringer.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@Fortworthdude7 @DarioCpx IGRC are the elite guard.
Artesh( regular army) 340-420k.
350k reservists.
Basij- paramilitary with basic training 1.8m.
I wouldn't my kids going over there.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@Fortworthdude7 @DarioCpx Population of Iran 93.3 million
GCC combined 62 million.
Add in the Iranian proxies and the ability to inflict serious damage to GCC infrastructure as well as the world economy.
I wouldn't risk it tbh.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@barstoollaw @dontdemdownsrq @sarahadams @TXTanoStan99 Middle household income $35k, really?

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@M_Stone969 @KobeissiLetter The contagion will be real.
Fortunately oil prices are ok for now. But that could change.
I'm sure cpi will dip for this month, but no telling where we'll be by December.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@M_Stone969 @KobeissiLetter The poor trend us up and far higher than average/normal. Its also true that upper middle and above have never been higher. Poor credit was 13.2% in 2024, 14.7% 25, 15.5% Jan 26 and 16.2% in June 26.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@M_Stone969 @KobeissiLetter In 2008 only 10% of consumers had bad credit. Historically anything over 10% is very bad for the overall economy.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

A convo with an ai.

At current trends, economists and analysts warn that the deteriorating credit health of lower-income consumers will transition from a localized hardship to a serious systemic problem for the entire economy by late 2026 to mid-2027.

The Tipping Point: Late 2026 – Mid 2027
The consensus among financial institutions is that the "slow-motion crash" currently affecting subprime borrowers will reach a critical tipping point within the next 12 to 18 months:

Housing Market Contagion: Analysts project that by Q2 2026, the surge in FHA (government-backed) mortgage delinquencies—currently acting as "modern subprime" loans—will trigger a wave of foreclosures. Unlike 2008, this distress is concentrated in government-insured loans, meaning taxpayers rather than just private banks will bear the initial brunt, but the resulting drop in home values will erode equity for all homeowners.
Auto Loan Crisis: Subprime auto loan delinquencies have already hit a 32-year record high (as of January 2026). As these loans default at record rates, lenders are tightening credit standards across the board, making it difficult even for "prime" borrowers to secure financing for vehicles, which restricts labor mobility and economic activity.
Consumption Contraction: With 16.3% of consumers now in the "poor" credit tier and credit card delinquencies rising, a significant portion of the population is being forced to cut spending. If this trend continues into 2027, the reduction in consumer spending (which drives ~70% of GDP) could push the broader economy into recession.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

It is alarming imo. While total debt looks to be inline with inflation, Wage rises have not kept pace so we're effectively on borrowed time. Given that defaults are starting to rise into an environment of decade high interest rates.
The percentage of consumers with poor scores (300–579) jumped to 14.7% in 2025, up from 13.2% in 2024.
Given that people are increasingly using credit to buy essentials and what a total credit usage does to credit scores. We are in a rapidly deteriorating downward spiral.
Either wages have to increase or interest rates drop. Or a bit of both.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@RelaxedPop @LonnyRWilliams @TreyYingst Only because 30% of what we produce we're unable to refine.
We export 13.5mpd and import 6 to 8mpd to feed our refineries geared up for heavy sour crude.
We would be in a much better position if we drilled for more heavy sour & we have massive reserves in California and Alaska.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

@Richard45161386 @LonnyRWilliams @TreyYingst Yep, but only 60% of the oil we use is home drilled. The remaining 40% comes from Canada, Mexico and a bit from the Middle East, so we're not completely immune to global oil deficits.
Better off than many countries though.

[Christoff @Christoff0001]

Chevy Blazer EV, On paper $42 for 900 miles a month.
Real world average is $72 a month. Includes winter range loss and inefficiencies in charging etc. You cant get much worse efficiency than we do 50mile highway commute, 5-6 months of winter and 110v charging. Still, way cheaper than gasoline.