Clyde Sil

TECH FOCUSED INVESTOR & EVENT DRIVEN TRADER

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

“Statistical Revamp” otherwise known as rigging the data to report lower inflation 😂

[leo 🐾 @synthwavedd]

🚨 SCOOP(s):

- GPT-5.6 will be the final model in the 5.x series. GPT-6 is slated to launch in about a month, earlier than expected, and possibly even later this month
- GPT-6 will be based on a new, significantly larger pretrain (versus the ~4T 5.5/5.6 'Spud' base)
- There is lots of excitement at OpenAI over this new base, which they believe will be much better able to compete with both Fable 5 and upcoming 5.1, targeting a similar release window. OpenAI initially intended to continue with Spud through GPT-6, but decided against it
- On the topic of Fable 5.1, it is in the late stages of the pipeline at Anthropic and a release is expected "in the coming weeks"
- On the other side of the globe, DeepSeek are preparing for an imminent launch of V4 GA, which seems likely to be on par with or better than GLM-5.2, and have begun work on a new, larger model that will compete with the upcoming 2.7T MiniMax Pro

[Matthew Pot @MatthewPot]

Fasten your seatbelts. Below is a look at the probabilities of different rates being reached by the end of 2022 according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. (Was much easier to visual prior to the last few months).

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

American consumers are becoming increasingly bullish on equities:

The perceived probability among US consumers that US stock prices will be higher 1-year from now increased +2.9 percentage points in June, to 40.9%, the highest since April 2021.

This is also the 3rd-highest reading since the 2020 pandemic recovery.

By age, consumers under 40 are the most optimistic, at 43.1%, the highest since May 2021.

This is followed by the 40-59 and over 59 age groups, both at 40.2%, the highest readings this year.

By income, the perceived probability of higher stock prices rose to 48.3% among those earning over $100,000, the highest since January 2025.

This compares with 38.6% among those earning $50,000-$100,000 and 33.6% among those earning under $50,000, both in-line with the average over the last 2 years.

High-income American consumers are historically bullish.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT REVOKING GENERAL LICENSE THAT AUTHORIZED SALE OF IRANIAN OIL -U.S. OFFICIAL

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Woah.

Nvidia $NVDA just created a new line of business for themselves.

So, all those neoclouds like $CRWV $NBIS $IREN $APLD $SPCX that have been getting deals with hyperscalers worth billions?

It’s because demand for compute, according to Jensen, is growing at a level that is beyond imagination. So, companies need to secure more compute.

But, many of these neoclouds are struggling to finance large GPU deployments, even after securing long-term compute demand.

So…Nvidia is going to help them out and share in the upside.

“This new model enables AI clouds to procure NVIDIA infrastructure for AI-native, enterprise and ISV customers through economic alignment with a revenue-sharing and credit-support model. Through the partnership, AI clouds will sell NVIDIA-powered cloud services, with NVIDIA earning both standard product revenue and a share of the cloud revenue on the supported capacity. This structure accelerates adoption of NVIDIA platforms among the high-growth, high-conviction AI native sector, and provides NVIDIA with a recurring, usage-linked earnings stream.”

Looks like Nvidia is going to make sure the best neoclouds don’t fail and this also shifts from a one-time GPU sale to a recurring, usage-based revenue stream…which just creates many more longer-term monetization opportunities.

[Gregory, FTA @gregory_FTA]

$MU
We're really doing this again huh...

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

High Beta Momentum is disintegrating in July. Every July

[Dr J Rould @jrouldz]

I think we are going to look back on the pullback on drone stocks and lament how obvious it was

- defense is a long term winning sector
- robotics is a revolution
- drones are an earlier robotics winner, riding defense tailwinds

I have been buying the drone dip 🫡

charts: $ONDS $KTOS $AVAV

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

This is crazier than you might think: Fable-5 now scores 16.10% on the Remote Labor Index

What is RLI? The Remote Labor Index uses 240 real remote-work projects from professional freelancers, covering 23 domains and more than $140,000 of human work. Each task comes with the actual brief, files, and accepted human deliverable.

Reviewers then compare the AI output against the human reference and ask whether a reasonable client would accept it.

That is why the scores are still low. Full projects require planning, file handling, quality control, visual consistency, domain judgment, and final packaging.

Fable-5 now leads the public leaderboard at 16.10%.

And it’s a crazy jump. We are still deep in exponential development, and now even the toughest benchmarks are being tackled.

[Elapsus @ausydau]

@StockSavvyShay One could’ve figured out that his 4.75% stake was about to push him above 5% and file a 13G if you all read the SEC fillings properly btw

[Clyde Sil @ClydeSil]

@morgantepell @cthorrez Is Claude better in Google Sheets?

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

$AMZN will raise price on GPU instances by 20% July 1st:

[Nick Dorsey @Midnight_Captl]

@LongVollllll What are you talking about?

META,ORCL,GOOG,AMZN,MSFT will spend >$1.1T next year

You don’t think they’ll grow it by a measly $200B?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

WSJ: The Data-Center Boom Is Sparking a Third Wave of Inflation

https://t.co/CZIjxnvNu3

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: U.S. inflation soars to a three-year high.

[Will Meade @thechartdr]

The P/E on the S&P 500 is 25, the forward P/E on the S&P 500 is 21.
The historical average P/E for the S&P is between 15-19. 19 when rates are low, 15 when rates are high. Therefore the market could correct anywhere from 10%-60% based on rates and what the Fed does.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Micron officially overtakes Meta in market value.

[George Gammon @GeorgeGammon]

10y rates are tanking, dollar is ripping and gold is sub $4,000

Something is happening…🧐

[Anson Lin @ansonlin]

can someone explain to me why I shouldn't buy figma stock right now?

they beat revenue projections every quarter since ipo and the stock is down 85%.

i don't know a single designer that uses claude design.

something doesn't add up.