Cobus Cilliers

LBS alumni, equity analyst. Views are my own opinion, not investment advice. Always do your own research.

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

“These are not eating sardines, they are trading sardines”

Still one of the best quotes/stories in Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman.

[Mteto Nyati @mteton]

Last week VCP marked 10 years of engaged private equity in South Africa- rolling up their sleeves, sitting on boards, and unlocking value.

Current portfolio (alpha order): Adcorp • Advtech • Altron • Lesaka • Metair • Pepkor • PPC • Sun International • Tiger Brands (Plus Bytes UK, unbundled from Altron.)

They recruited me from MTN to lead their first investment, Altron. Felt like being the first born - the parents pay close attention. Together we delivered exceptional value for shareholders.

At the anniversary I sat with Lincoln Mali (ex-Standard Bank, now leading Lesaka). We unpacked the engaged board model and how it shaped the Eskom turnaround.

Lincoln is one of the unsung heroes - the spiritual leader who reminded the generation team of their greatness when few wanted to be associated with Eskom. He has also turned Lesaka around through passion for financial inclusion and integrity.

None of it happens without founders Antony Ball and Sam Sithole. Patient, engaged capital that transforms SA companies.

#VCP10 #SouthAfrica #Leadership

[FinancialMail @FinancialMail]

🎙️ WATCH | How does Value Capital Partners pull off its corporate turnaround magic? @GTalevi unpacks the strategy, successes, and challenges behind this unique activist investor.

Listen in here.

https://t.co/azfXuW9DyG

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@CWHomeConnect
Having a really horrible customer experience, which is ongoing!

2 weeks without fibre at home (moving house ticket logged), and now when the line is supposedly officially transferred, still no service

Ticket 2 logged… now another 3-9 business days to wait?

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Great Investment Checklist to Use

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@albie_cilliers We might be talking past one another, but my view is that management has done a good job given their stated strategy, and it’s been a good investment.
Most of their disposals done at or above NAV (valuation) over past 2 yrs.

[Daniel King @DanielKing043]

We are looking for a sharp graduate of economics or finance to fill the role of economic and fixed income analyst. Preferably 0 - 2 years experience but track record of academic excellence is a prerequisite for consideration.

Please see the advert below for link and details:

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@jamesonwhiskey

I’m not really into cancel culture, but given how disturbing and despicable these acts were, I’ve decided to make an exception for you guys.

#JamesonWhiskey
#NotForMeAnymore

https://t.co/8ibvbIg0BD

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@hazelwood_dave Thought you were never dogmatic? Net debt and operating cashflows significantly improved (which were your criteria)?

[Ole Lehmann @itsolelehmann]

I just went down a rabbit hole of a concept I literally can't stop thinking about...

Parkinson's Law:

[Khandani Msibi @KhandaniM]

Sometimes if u don’t have competition u must create it, I was in the front seat in such a situation. 1995 I was Factory Manager at Bromor Foods, we launched Energade which was a new category of still drinks (game was too weak to be considered in the game). Chris Rowan Perry was MD and he said Energade must not be marketed as strictly a sportsman’s drink like it was the case with Game. He wanted it marketed and merchandised as a refreshment drink in competition to Coca Cola buddy. But this was a daunting task as Bromor didn’t have the marketing money to lure clients way from carbonated soft drinks to still drinks. The parent of Bromor was Cadbury Schweppes and it held the rights to Powerade outside of the USA. Rowan Perry, to our horror asked Cadbury to allow Coca Cola to bring Powerade into the SA market, we thought he has gone mad. He later explained that we don’t have money to be market leader of a new category, we need a market leader that will lead the category against CSD’s by spending huge marketing funds to grow the category. Why not let Coca Cola the company compete with itself. His logic was that if we sell one bottle for every 3 bottles of Powerade we would do well. Coke launched Powerade and when I left Bromor in 1999 Oros was 100 yrs old making R100m in revenue and Energade was 5 yrs old making R100m in revenue. 2 years later I had left Bromor and joined ABI, a bottler of Coca Cola. I was General Manager in Richard’s Bay and then MegaManufavturing Manager in Pretoria. We were in a strategy session when the Coke guys walked in to make some important announcement, proudly so: Powerade has surpasses Energade in market share, I was the only one that didn’t celebrate the achievement, how do I tell them they fell into a Rowan Perry trap?

Nespars need online to chow the lunch of brick and mortar and Amazon is coming to help move consumers online. Let’s see if the Energade and Powerade game will
Play itself. May the best strategist win!

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@AswathDamodaran
Seems you have an impersonator.
@Aswathamodaran

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@sweatystartup DIY Watch Club.
Get him a nice watch he can build on his own (with a custom dial)

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

These cape lappet caterpillars respond to human voice and noise.

[📹 Overberg Renosterveld Conservation Trust]

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

In a decade or two, if any asks Handré Pollard about the scar under his left eye, he’ll have an epic story to tell.
#RWC2023

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@JSE_Cracker With the above in mind, the key message/point remains.

There is substantial margin of safety in LHC when compared with peers (such as $JSENTC).

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

Anyone thinking the market is efficient, should look at the $JSELHC price action since announcing the AMG disposal.

Special div (just under R6 per share), Some debt repayment and expansion capex from proceeds.

R20 per share implies SA business c.4.5x EV/EBITDA

#MarginOfSafety

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

@JSE_Cracker A bit more to it
1. What is your LMI value per share
2. What is your forward EBITDA for SA hospitals?
3. What is your NTC’s model’s forward EV/EBITDA?
Let me know what you have. I have a suspicion your numbers will imply close to what I just posted on SA hospitals(ex minorities)

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

Tomorrow 9am ET

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

Total / TTE has an investor day at the end of September.
Maybe we hear something before then?

#HCI
#ImpactOilAndGas
#AfricaOilCorp

https://t.co/UfqbliiIIN

[Cobus Cilliers @CobusC82]

The font on this sign makes me think we are in a Scooby-Doo movie.