PC

[PC @CodjoeP]

!!!

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

Trump bringing Hyperliquid to the U.S. means everyone’s forward revenue estimates are now disgustingly wrong.

Type of news that would get analysts to revise numbers up massively in TradFi.

This along with crypto volumes likely bottoming warrants a big repricing.

[PC @CodjoeP]

Thinking hard !

[Kyle Samani @KyleSamani]

Next level deeper

Hyperliquid is just binance 2.0 without a marketing team and has made 1000s of technical decisions that work well in a centralized setting and won’t work at all in a permissionless decentralized one. And now they’re many steps behind

And also no real American company will ever work them now

Try to read and think!

[PC @CodjoeP]

my cio

[Jonathan Moore @jonmoore202]

https://t.co/9Ly8I7BTAo

[PC @CodjoeP]

my quant

[sterling @DjSterlingC]

Love Island: Initiating Coverage: KC / Tierra Top 3 @ ~9¢

This is a high-volatility, event-driven special situation ahead of Friday’s final-four elimination. The market has treated KC’s Casa decision as a permanent impairment. I think it has failed to mark the subsequent operating data to market.

The thesis is extremely simple: KC and Tierra are the only underpriced couple I can underwrite as two people who affirmatively like each other and should be together.

They absorbed the Casa backlash, survived Movie Night, and continued compounding while the rest of the villa issued serial restatements, talked down on one another, and got wrapped up in drama. KC eventually owned the ugly parts instead of hiding behind villa-adjusted decisions, stayed consistent with Tierra, and converted the connection into an actual boyfriend/girlfriend relationship. “Pipe down, I’m Titi” will echo throughout history for centuries.

On the core question – leaving Aniya for Tierra – KC has been fully vindicated.

@Kalshi has KC / Tierra top 3 at 9¢ currently, and when compared to the rest of the comp set, you have pretty attractive r/r. @Polymarket should launch a top 3 market.

COMPS:

Trinity/Bryce (98¢): The quality compounder. Stable, official, family-approved. Correctly priced and therefore uninteresting. I still think they’re acting, but I will not let that get in the way here.

Aniya/Carl (84–85¢): A distressed recapitalization being valued as organic growth. Aniya passed on Carl, the public re-injected him into the villa, and he returned as the fallback asset. Fundamentally indefensible. Regrettably, Aniya’s narrative equity and voter goodwill are enormous, so this probably clears top 3 despite deserving no multiple whatsoever. This was much more attractive during the 60¢ dip.

Kayda/Zach (51¢): Trading on tenure rather than quality. Day-3 incumbency is real, but announcing “exclusive”—not boyfriend/girlfriend—in finale week is the relationship equivalent of launching a strategic review instead of reporting earnings. They also required an Islander rescue after failing America’s compatibility screen. Mature asset, limited growth with a European discount.

Melanie/Sincere (43–45¢): Elite engagement, catastrophic governance. The relationship has recurring trust impairments, and both families effectively recommended that shareholders vote AGAINST; Sincere’s father flew 7,000 miles to launch an activist campaign against his own son. Still, OG status, screen-time distribution and a passionate holder base create a real floor.

Kenzie/Dylan (3¢): Late-cycle Casa roll-up, minimal operating history and unresolved trust issues. Unverified airport/Instagram chatter represents a negative channel check, but even excluding it, the current valuation looks approximately fair, if not a little rich.

The bear case is obvious: public votes are not always aligned with fundamentals. Aniya sympathy and KC’s Casa-era brand damage may dominate, and the elimination market is pricing KC/Tierra as roughly 79% likely to go this week. I think the market has this wrong, and I think those who are stuck in the past get burned here.

At 9¢, a winning contract pays roughly 11.1x gross before fees. I do not need them to win. I need them to survive Friday and avoid finishing fourth.

That is a risk/reward I am willing to underwrite.

Disclosure: intending to initiate a long KC/Tierra TOP 3 position around 9¢. Not financial advice. Unfortunately, it is #LoveIsland advice.

[PC @CodjoeP]

Crypto traders hearing this:

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

Paul Tudor Jones on risk management:

“I had this ten thousand dollar account, and I’d run that thing up to a hundred and I’d run it back down to zero.”

“The idea of owning something for the long-run was laughable…the volatility profile was off the charts.” -@ptj_official

[PC @CodjoeP]

@linfluence @0xsmac Yes

[nihilism disrespecter @meaning_enjoyer]

"can a man be brave if he is afraid?"

"that is the only time he can be brave."

[Jake Milkshake @bagmonsta]

How it feels getting a shirt at Christmas then putting it on and wearing it all day

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

Hyperliquid Thesis

Syncracy believes $HYPE possesses a unique revenue engine, combining an exchange and smart contract platform, that positions it to become the highest earning blockchain in the world.

Our thesis on Hyperliquid’s "financial aggregator” opportunity.

1/

[Jack Ratkovich @jackratko_]

@CodjoeP is one of the most brilliant analysts I know in the space

This is much deserved.

[Artemis @artemis]

Meet the February '25 Analyst of the Month: @CodjoeP

Paul is a Research Analyst at @FTDA_US where he is responsible for conducting fundamental research and analysis on liquid and venture investments in digital assets.

Read on to learn more about:
1️⃣ His journey from studying biomedical engineering to crypto research and investing
2️⃣ His view on VC investing vs liquid investing in crypto
3️⃣ His view on the role of fundamental data in crypto

[Alexander Lin @linfluence]

At Reforge, we spend a significant amount of time on GitHub: we’re either perusing repositories as part of investment diligence for a project, using it as a tool to source founders and ideas, or just trying to learn more how a particular project or idea is being implemented. Marketing (docs, X threads, etc.) paints grand visions, but the real story of any project lives in its code. As former engineers turned investors we've developed a keen eye for separating signal from noise.

We thought it would be fun to peek behind the curtain of hyped projects, examine the code that powers their promises, and share an unvarnished perspective on what we find. We’re here to help you see what we're seeing – for better or worse.

GitHub Spotlight: Eliza

The bottom line: Eliza provides an extensible and flexible structure for personality-driven agents, making it a strong choice for simple or scripted workflows. It’s a great tool for creating consistent, cross-platform personas, but ultimately falls short of being a true autonomous agent framework without learning or strategic planning capabilities.

If the goal is to build adaptive, autonomous agents that can collaborate or handle complex reasoning, teams will be doing a lot of heavy lifting to build additional functionality on top of it. The value in high-utility use cases would largely come from custom-built additions rather than the core framework.

Eliza should not be mistaken for a comprehensive agent framework like its web2 counterparts (e.g., Langchain, Autogen, Letta, etc.) at this point in time. Its real value lies in personality-driven automation and barely scratches the surface of unlocking genuine autonomous agent development.

[PC @CodjoeP]

@0xzerebro e.p. is orders of magnitude better than @truthterminalAI

still not priced in

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

Solana now rivals Ethereum across nearly every key metric.

Yet $SOL trades at just 33% the valuation of $ETH.

Our Solana Thesis Part II: The Data-Driven Case for $SOL.

1/

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

In emerging blockchain ecosystems, religious energy is a powerful leading indicator of success.

Well-crafted narratives act like temporal magnets, drawing future resources into the present, making extraordinary outcomes almost self-fulfilling.

In essence, Soros’ reflexivity manifesting in the cryptoeconomy — where belief attracts ideologically driven builders and diamond-handed investors in a self-reinforcing loop, turning imperfect projects into long-term winners.

All that’s needed at first, to spark a new “religion” is a kernel of truth — a North Star that stirs a visceral response, and a new developer sandbox that pushes the boundaries of what’s possible.

For Ethereum, it was the promise of decentralized applications and the advent of smart contracts.

For Solana, it was the vision of a decentralized Nasdaq, delivered through a high-performance, parallelized system.

Today I see two ecosystems brewing with similar religious energy that I once saw in Ethereum and Solana: Bittensor (TAO) and Celestia (TIA).

Bittensor promises a future of decentralized AI. Its permissionless subnet architecture and block reward system programmatically incentivizes the creation of digital commodities for AI applications. The potential? The largest DePIN program ever, which when combined with upcoming smart contracts, could create a full-stack decentralized AI platform (i.e an AI L1).

Celestia promises a future of sovereign applications. Its modular architecture enables fully customizable, natively interoperable rollups that effectively scale with demand. Its data-sampling light nodes unlock unprecedented economies of scale, overcoming the anti-network effects that plague traditional blockchains. The potential? A flourishing ecosystem of composable chains, powering hyper-scale decentralized applications.

Today the hurdle is extremely high for a new ecosystem to breach into the pantheon of generational blockchains which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and now Solana. I’m skeptical many more will earn a spot at the top if any. It will likely take another bear market to figure out for sure. But if I had to bet, and I am to be clear, I’m betting on TAO and TIA.

NFA.

[natalie 💫 @eclecticcapital]

Excited to share a surprise bonus episode we did with @RyanOuyang_ of @iyk_app!

We chatted about IYK’s origins and product vision, as well as some more personal topics around being a young founder + dropping out of school to work on startups. Really enjoyed this one!

link below as always 💫

[David 🏹 @d_gilz]

If you can’t handle me at my crash out you don’t deserve me when I cash out

[Alex @midsmoker34]

Bag talk. I fw this