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#Bitcoin

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

The abundance illusion.

Carter admitted the scarcity. It was honest. It was politically fatal.

Every Administration since drew the obvious lesson: never admit to scarcity. Talk the price down. Release the reserves. Call it abundance and hope the problem resolves itself. It has worked for the past 50 years.

839 institutional investors. Record two-thirds expect oil prices to fall further. Even retail: oil ETF shorts exceed longs for the first time ever.

The template is working.

It has always worked. Until the buffer runs out.

SPR 415→349mb. Global stocks drawing 6mb/d.

That’s not supply responding to price. That’s inventory responding to price. And inventory, unlike production, has a floor.

You cannot destock your way to energy security.

See my latest note https://t.co/ktBpOCEf1U

[The Adam Carolla Show @AdamCarollaShow]

.@JerrySeinfeld explains why @adamcarolla's "Rich Man, Poor Man" is one of the greatest comedy bits of all time 👇

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

At 24.7, the forward 12m P/E for the Mag 7 is not looking that extreme

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

To put this in context, a 6-sigma event happens once every 4,030,00 years. 4 million years!

It happened a couple weeks ago 😁

[Brett Hall @ToKTeacher]

Cutting edge astronomy: the gateway for many into science and…lots more.

[Brett Hall @ToKTeacher]

You know what I’m going to say…

[David Deutsch @DavidDeutschOxf]

Tests of Constructor Theory: https://t.co/ucf6CCNgkX

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.

You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.

In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.

[David Deutsch @DavidDeutschOxf]

Someone out there seems to know that an LLM is not an AGI, nor will better LLMs ever be AGIs.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Just heard during a financial television interview on equity investing: “ANY pullback is an opportunity to buy.”
This echoes quite a broad market belief -- conditioned by years of policy puts and outcomes-- that has increasingly ensured market corrections are remarkably limited in both magnitude and duration.
Yet the deeper this belief is embedded in the system, the greater the risk of unsettling volatility in the event of a serious challenge, whether from fundamentals, technicals, valuations, or all three.
#markets #investing #investors

[Stephen Wolfram @stephen_wolfram]

What happens when agents with all possible strategies compete? That's a question for ruliology. With some surprising answers...
https://t.co/5RdL27qQc3

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

As with fat tails Llms are frequency machines that fail to extrapolate outside the sample set. What they know is the VISIBLE.

Almost as bad as economists, almost worse than psychologists.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

While this time may feel different, this is normally where #BTC is at this point in midterm years.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

S&P 500's forward 12m profit margin keeps spiking to new highs

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Ray Dalio warns the AI bubble will burst when investors convert paper wealth into real money.

[Karli Bonne’ 🇺🇸 @KarluskaP]

Holy fuckin’ shit I would like to report a murder!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

“Korea is a memory trade. Taiwan is a foundry trade. Japan is an economy trade, with an AI kicker. That distinction matters enormously if the memory cycle turns." - Barclays

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Nasdaq 100 Stocks with 400% returns over past year:
-2000 peak = 22
-Today = 6

The number of extreme Nasdaq winners today is the highest it has been since 2000, but there is a long way to go to match the mania of the previous Tech Bubble.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

S&P 500 ATHs for 5 days in a row and all 5 days saw more stocks decline than advance.

Potential near-term worry? Yes. But bigger picture this hasn't ended bull markets.

Nice one from @granthawkridge here.