Arete

Dad, Wisdom Seeker/Imparter, Private Wealth. Albert, it's a friendly universe.

[Arete @ColinACody]

I shall pass this way but once; any good, therefore, that I can do or any kindness that I can show to any human being, let me do it now.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@WarrenPies Not sure why nothing is a bubble unless is matches Nasdaq 99-00. Sample size is 1. You mean it cant be called a bubble at .7x? .8x, .95x?
Admittedly, I don't think we are at the top either but certainly frothy enough for a short scary retrace.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@jmsolem @ChicagoBears @GovPritzker Ha ha, 🤣 funny you found this.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@PeterDiamandis Peter, convince every business you know to use AI to credential hires and quit being lazy and falling for a university degree as an any type of signal.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@C_Barraud This risk was always out there. Less energy intensive models and cheaper too. I wonder about the effects.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@WinnieEatsPoop @WarrenPies If everyone is waiting for March 2000 then one of two things will likely happen. This bubble stops short at .9x and everyone misses the off-ramp waiting for higher or more likely we will blow past March 2000 which will inflict greater pain.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@mark_ungewitter Not sure I would advocate buying a flagpole pattern as a sustained wealth building strategy

[Arete @ColinACody]

@trevornoren Total expected corporate buybacks in 2026 = $1.3 Trillion. Nearly a trillion comes, and more than a trillion goes.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@Codie_Sanchez At what ARR does the “free” stock begin to make it more 50:50?

[Arete @ColinACody]

Of course its going to be like this. This chart just captures the LEGACY credential system. Now that costs have exploded, young people can credential in alternative ways, college teachings seem to be at odds with mainstream US, AND most importantly, businesses change hiring practices this chart will look different in 10 years.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@paulg Businesses need to start hiring with this in mind. It cant be a catch all credential like before. The signal is not that strong and maybe be worse than that. The value prop is gone if businesses dont need it anymore.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@MattWalshBlog I agree, done well, its hundreds of millions. Forget Hollywood, do it yourself.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@DannyDayan5 Where are the impulses coming besides 60trillion?

[Arete @ColinACody]

If they have enough wealth and income through dividends, bonds, munis, private credit 😀, they may not be selling things down. The nut throws off enough income. Would be interested to see Medium to assess whether they can live off the assets or have to sell. I imagine plenty of this wealth is their homes too which is not very liquid.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@orrdavid There was clearly a massive risk risk on shift. If you can stay in business you will likely kill it when this all turns but that could be a year from now, who knows. Defensives are hated again too.

[Kevin OReilly🇺🇸 @KevinORCard2011]

@DavidJUrban Letter to Mrs. Bixby (Saving Private Ryan) https://t.co/1DydmGT9Ki via @YouTube

[🇺🇸 David J. Urban 🇺🇸 @DavidJUrban]

Executive Mansion, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 1864

Dear Madam,
I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant-General of Massachusetts, that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle. I feel how weak and fruitless must be any words of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering to you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save. I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours, to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of Freedom.

Yours, very sincerely and respectfully,

Abraham Lincoln

[Arete @ColinACody]

@ankurnagpal Just think if had used a long/short equity fund, you would be looking at 25%-30% a year.

[Arete @ColinACody]

@CliffordAsness What would you say to an alternative, fund of funds hedge fund, can knock 6%-11% a year, with low beta to SPY. Why play the duration roulette if you dont have to?