Compliant Degen

Regulatory professional by trade | Degenerate Bitcoin investor by choice | $MTPLF $TSWCF $HOGPF $MSTR

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

About a year ago, I made a presentation for my wife – titled, “Diversification is Dead: the Case for Bitcoin-centration” – to get her onboard with going all-in on BTC & crypto.

This thread is the essay I drafted in my Notes app to organize my thoughts before presenting to her.🧵

[₿itcoin Rachy ⚡️ @BitcoinRachy]

How did you get your spouse on board with bitcoin?

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

.@Metaplanet has disclosed the results of its Bitcoin Income Generation business for Q4. ✅

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

Metaplanet Base Case:
3,500% return over 10 years

If you believe that over the next 10 years Bitcoin will average 30% annual growth, Metaplanet will maintain a minimum 30% amplification with preferred shares, and Metaplanet will pay dividends from operating income, then the worst Metaplanet can do is outperform Bitcoin by 3x. In other words, Metaplanet will be worth a minimum of $90 per share in 2035, or more than a 3,500% return in 10 years from these prices.

This scenario makes the bearish assumption that Metaplanet will never achieve an mNAV premium again and only ever be valued at its BTC holdings - preferred obligations.

Below is a simple spreadsheet modeling this out. Note, this model assumes prefs scale immediately to the amplification ratio and smooth BTC CAGR. Both are unrealistic assumptions, but are more than unlikely offset by ignoring periods of mNAV premiums and the increase of pref amplification to more than 30% over time. I'll make a more realistic model in the future.

https://t.co/Tv9XrJ2qri

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

Haven’t quite made #2 yet, but we’re well on our way!🚀

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

Scheduled on June 30, 2025 at 5:25pm.

Sincerely,
Compliant Degen of the past
https://t.co/B86Yv62fFw

[BRITISH HODL ❤️‍🔥🐂❤️‍🔥 @BritishHodl]

@mitchellaskew @metaplanet @dylanleclair MetaPlanet will not be the number 2 holder of Bitcoin.

I wish them well though - as I've stated many times I'm an investor, the Asian money just won't get it done for 2nd spot.

I believe @APompliano and @GoingParabolic are already ahead of them, and they launched last week.

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

Metaplanet has authorized the repurchase of up to 150 million shares of its common stock.

Concurrently, the company has secured a credit facility for use up to $500 million to be utilized at the company’s discretion.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

@ZynxBTC @dylanleclair @gerovich I haven’t spent much time digging into this, but I haven’t been able to find the source either.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

Metaplanet’s Moving Strike Warrants will be suspended again from October 20th to November 17th. I still don’t think Evo or the MSWs are the problem, but let’s see if the market’s perception disagrees with me. I’m happy to be proven wrong…

[Simon Gerovich @gerovich]

Metaplanet has a strong foundation for growth and has developed the ability to harness a variety of financing tools. We are now temporarily suspending the 20th-22nd Series of Stock Acquisition Rights as we optimize our capital raising strategies in our relentless pursuit of expanding our Bitcoin holdings and maximizing BTC Yield.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

Cash and Balance Sheet Update

Combined with the ~$9m leftover from the international offering, this ~$5.4m raise could allow Metaplanet to buy approximately 118 more BTC. However, it’s possible they will wait and announce a larger buy later after more exercises come through.

Recent weakness in the JPY currency has also reduced their debt, in dollar terms, by about $1m. It was a smart move converting all of the 0% debt from USD to JPY this summer. These little things management has done to execute on behalf of shareholders will add up to huge value over time, and I fully believe in the company’s ability to drastically outperform BTC from here🚀

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

🚨MSW Exercise Update‼️

Public disclosure on the JASDEC site suggest that Evo Fund has made their first MSW exercise since Sep. 1, confirming speculation that they sold shares during the run up above the new minimum exercise price of ¥637.

🧵Updated trackers/analysis below.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

555 Plan Status Report

This additional exercise is just 1.3 million shares, but it represents another step towards completion of Series 20 (now ~85% used, with 28.44m shares left). Once those are depleted, all remaining exercises will be at a 1-2% premium, easing sell pressure.

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

Shares can go down even when there are no MSW exercises. Shares can go up ten straight days while MSW issuance accounts for 15–20% of daily volume, like we saw in May.

An operating company cannot control its share price—there isn’t a joystick to simply pull. MSTR didn’t ATM a single share for weeks after Q2 earnings, and in BTC terms, MSTR still went down. There are countless variables behind how markets trade day to day.

It might not be the most satisfying answer, but assets with 150% annualized volatility move irrationally at times— in both directions.

We’ve seen three or four 50-60% drawdowns in the past 18 months, each time while fundamentals only strengthened.

Is this time different?

We’ve turned a $14 million hotel into a $4.5 billion business with the stock up 3,000% in 18 months.

We’re not blind to the drawdown, and we’re sympathetic to those sitting on losses. But this isn’t our first rodeo—we’ve got a plan to right the ship. Things take time in the world of regulated public companies, but we’re moving as fast and as transparently as we can to keep shareholders informed.

Lastly, Simon doesn’t limit what I can say. What does are the obligations that come with being a multi-billion-dollar company on a regulated stock exchange.

If you have comments or questions for management, please use the IR portal rather than tagging me amongst a thread that misrepresents or slanders my team while demanding my reply.

Thanks for the questions—among everything else.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

@jeffgoldsmith23 💯 They’re not just posting here – they’re also trading the stock right now for much less than what it’s worth. The traders changing the number on the screen won’t change my mind either 🚀

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

🤑Valuation Framework for a BTCTC Growth Company?🚀

I’m not generally in the business of giving price targets, but it is clear to me that the current market price of Metaplanet shares is simply wrong, so I want to share my thoughts on valuation.

The way I think about valuing a BTC Treasury Company is to separate it into its component parts (considering the growth of each). Put simply, these parts generally consist of:
1) the balance sheet (and company’s ability to generate BTC Yield through financial engineering in isolation); and
2) the operating business and its contribution (or, more commonly, detraction) to BTC Yield.

Looking at mNAV is a helpful eye test or simple gauge of how the market views the company, but it is NOT a valuation framework. In reality, mNAV only applies in the balance sheet component, and in my view, it should be ~1x unless the company has a proven track record of generating yield. An established and well-utilized ATM-mechanism for accretive equity dilution justifies a premium, in my view, and the existence of intelligent leverage (especially as perpetual preferred shares) amplifying BTC returns without dilution justifies an even larger premium. At Metaplanet’s current mNAV of 1.25x, I believe the company is undervalued on its balance sheet ALONE.

Further, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are generally thought of as “zombie companies” with stagnant or shrinking operating businesses that are a drag on performance. Metaplanet is turning this on its head, expecting to generate ~$32m in operating profits this year, which represents a 13x(!!) increase from last year.

That was basically accomplished with options income alone, which is continuing to grow exponentially, and is also just one of the three revenue engines the company is building. Metaplanet is not a zombie hotel business, it’s a hyper-growth fintech company poised to profit immensely from the accelerating adoption of the best monetary asset in history.

And the best news? The market doesn’t see this AT ALL. If you buy Metaplanet right now, you get the amplified Bitcoin exposure from the balance sheet, and you get a supercharged growth company on top of it for free. Project Nova could fail miserably and shareholders are completely insulated by the balance sheet, or it could explode, taking over Japan’s Bitcoin markets entirely and justify a complete repricing of the company.

My bags are packed for phase 2, and I’m bringing my spacesuit, just in case. I have a feeling this new moon is about to start waxing big time.📈

🚀🌑🌒🌓🌔🌕🌖🌗🌘🌑🚀

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

🚀Metaplanet Phase II Analysis

Much is unknown, but two things are clear:
1) Unlike me, Simon and Dylan did NOT use the quiet period to take a break from working for shareholders; and
2) This is a growth company, not a hotel.

🧵 Here’s a quick thread laying out the highlights.

[Compliant Degen @CompliantDegen]

⁉��What is Project Nova⁉️

There has already been a lot of speculation about Project Nova, and most details are still “classified,” but here’s what we know:

1) It’s coming in 2026;
2) It will position Metaplanet at the center of Japan’s Bitcoin ecosystem;
3) It will solve BTC acquisition market inefficiencies and create sustainable revenue generation; and
4) It represents a vertical integration of the company’s BTC Treasury Operations.

Based on these facts alone, it is hard not to think they are aiming to launch some sort of Bitcoin trading platform in Japan. My best guess is an exchange for trading spot BTC and derivatives. While the regulatory side of my brain sees risks and expenses associated with this, as an investor and believer in management’s expertise, I can’t help but get excited.

Very few people understand these markets as well as Dylan and Simon, so I believe them when they say they can solve the inefficiencies they have seen acquiring (and trading) on other platforms. Plus, with Metaplanet being a household name for Bitcoiners in Japan, continually ranking among the top stocks bought in NISA accounts and owning Bitcoin Magazine Japan, I have a hard time believing that they wouldn’t see widespread adoption and immediately capture quite large market share in the country.

This would indeed be a very exciting development if they can figure out all of the regulatory compliance hurdles because Bitcoin adoption is only accelerating, and Metaplanet could easily become a global leader in facilitating and profiting from this growth🚀