Bobby Axelrod

Macro PM | anonymous account

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@masayoshisson The s1 already leaked and everything traded lower on it

[Nostra, House of Gold @Nostre_damus]

We're taking heavy fire in Nasdaqistan

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@Biohazard3737 Do you think this is just a sell the news event (and was going to be regardless of the HR number), or that actually the bogey was 0.5 instead of the 0.6 that sell side had circulated? (Feels like the former but just curious)

[Dom @dominik_scherm]

some thoughts on the lab-in-the-loop and why verification is the real bottleneck for AI drug discovery. https://t.co/ctkGaQZeD5

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

This is my quant

[Ram Parameswaran @_ram_]

AI-driven drug discovery could be an accelerant for Danaher, for example ($DHR)

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@TMTLongShort Solid post

[Nathan C. Frey @nc_frey]

Where do you go next after reporting from the Strait of Hormuz? For the past three months, Citrini Research, an independent research firm, has been working with our team and an internal research model to see if they could use AI to create a new drug. What follows is an entertaining, candid, and humbling account of a group of motivated nonexperts (or “filthy casuals”, as Citrini would say) trying to tackle a real problem in human health with Claude.

We landed on scorpion neurotoxins, which kill over 3,000 people a year. Of the 211 designs we produced and tested, 17 met our criteria for a binder. None of the designs bound more than one toxin and none have been tested for neutralizing a toxin.

One of my favorite quotes from the piece is: “Our virtual biologist may have compressed a year's worth of work into a couple days, but biology works at the speed of life…Over two days, we watched Claude work through problems at a speed that was difficult to comprehend. For the next two months, we spent much of the time becoming familiar with laboratory turnaround times (This mostly involved sending memes in Slack).”

[Citrini @citrini]

What is AI really capable of in bio?

To separate hype from reality, we spent 3 months working firsthand with @AnthropicAI's internal research model to see if it could create an experimental scorpion antivenom.

Introducing Citrini Therapeutics.

https://t.co/VAUBSi7sNy

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@Biohazard3737 Fired the CFO post qtr without preA’ing, so everyone assumes the qtr wasn’t great (until proven otherwise)

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

Even for someone optimistic on AI in the long term, objectively Ant went from adding 10B rev per month to ~2-3B of rev per month. Growth has slowed significantly in real terms, it’s not just “law of large numbers” deceleration, it is actual slowdown. On 70B base their recent rate of growth is possibly <50% forward annualized, which is slower than the Hyperscalers entire businesses are currently growing (CSP AI biz growing much faster obviously).

Data indicates potential acceleration for Ant from Aug-Sept levels in Oct, and there are 1-off headwinds they have absorbed contributing to slower recent levels of growth.

But that the business can decel by ~8B/mo almost as quickly as it accelerated highlights the risk, and why mkt is so jumpy on datapoints.

Not irrational at all that AI stocks are down this much. Add in rates/debt markets, politics, supply chains, lots of reason for elevated discount rates.

For the bull case for AI supply chain stocks in the short term, you need to see:
- Successful Ant IPO / OAI fundraise
- Rates to calm down and appetite from debt markets to support current rate of issuance for a few more years as buildout > monetization.
- Blowout cloud earnings and positive EPS revisions
- A few more “Claude code” moments unlocking new TAM from better models / harnesses / applications to re-accelerate AI token monetization trends out of current lull.

The trend is no longer your friend unfortunately.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Populism in a nutshell.

[David French @DavidAFrench]

Pathetic. Of course we waived sanctions. The Republican Party has become a Vichy party. It's the party of appeasement and weakness.

[Steve Rattner @SteveRattner]

Trump says we’re building “more factories and plants right now than at any time in our history.”

Factory construction hit a historic record under Biden and has fallen 31% since Trump took office.

My @Morning_Joe Chart

[bacon @steve2bacon]

getting a 5% relief bounce on your ticker after -30% is a sexual experience. savor it

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@DeepValue000 “No one believed the ARR numbers anyway!” 🤣😭

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

One of the most brazen examples of thesis drift you’ll ever see

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

No one - and I mean literally no one in the AI supply chain - takes the ridiculous $1 trillion of unfunded spending “commitments” from OpenAI and Anthropic even vaguely seriously.

Hence the TSM executives dismissing Sam Altman as a nontechnical “podcast bro” after he came to them to make a commitment.

Just listen to the answers that public company executives give about these unfunded “commitments.” They are functionally irrelevant and this should be obvious to everyone.

[Dave A Ricks @DaveARicks]

Two souls are dead because they self administered something purporting to be the most powerful metabolic agent ever developed - without medical supervision, before the inventor has asked for approval and sourced from a Chinese “lab” seeking to make a quick buck.

Peptide World - “Lilly made this up”.

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@HighyieldHarry Run-rate was $65b as of July, which tells you July number - backing that out of this Q3 total implies Aug &amp; Sept months are growing ~LSD% sequentially

[Bobby Axelrod @Compound_Cap]

@risucci_rick The idea of getting rid of Garcia seems insane to me. He was one of our best hitters… on a team where those were scarce. We just need him to spend the offseason prancing 2B