🔋Tony🔋

I’m obsessed with finding amazing companies and compounding alongside them over the long term.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

Being able to think long term in a world full of short term thinkers is a huge advantage. Don’t get distracted by the 99%!

$EOSE

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@AUKM_42 Bryn? That you?

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@temu143 💯

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

$EOSE | How I think about investing when confidence is disappearing. (1/4)🧵

I’ve been getting quite a few questions lately about $EOSE.

People are frustrated, worried, losing confidence, or wondering whether they should sell now and buy back lower.

I understand why.

The stock is trading around $1.65, management keeps disappointing investors, and despite the progress the company is making, the market seems completely unimpressed.

So I thought it might be useful to share how I think about investing.

Not to convince anyone to buy, sell, or hold $EOSE. But because I think the way we deal with uncertainty, risk, and time has an enormous influence on our investment decisions.

1. The stock price is not the business.

A falling stock price doesn’t automatically mean the business is deteriorating. Just as a rising stock price doesn’t necessarily mean things are going well.

I try to separate those two things.

When I look at Eos today, I see a company that has made enormous progress compared to where it was a few years ago.

Manufacturing capabilities, production capacity, actual deliveries, revenue. The progress is real.

And there’s something else worth considering.

This isn’t just happening to $EOSE.

I follow a lot of tickers, and a surprisingly large number of them are trading at or near their 52-week lows.

That doesn’t automatically mean they’re all undervalued. But it does make me question how much of what we’re seeing is specific to Eos and how much reflects broader market sentiment.

Because when a stock falls, it’s tempting to look at the company and assume something must be fundamentally wrong.

Sometimes that’s true. Sometimes the market is simply repricing risk across an entire group of companies.

Understanding the difference matters.

Does all this mean Eos is worth more than its current market cap? That’s a separate question.

But I don’t let the stock price tell me what to think about the business.

2. I have serious doubts about management.

Let’s be clear about that.

For years, management has repeatedly failed to deliver on its own expectations.

They keep changing the numbers and metrics they emphasize, seemingly choosing whichever comparison looks best that particular quarter.

And once again, we’re watching them gradually walk back guidance.

I find that genuinely astonishing. You would think they’d have learned from previous mistakes by now.

Sometimes I wonder whether they’re simply terrible at anticipating setbacks or whether they don’t fully understand the challenges they’re facing.

Maybe those aren’t even two different things.

So no, I don’t blindly trust management.

But over the past decades , I’ve learned something important.

My confidence in management and my confidence in the underlying opportunity are two very different things.

They don’t always move in the same direction.

I can have serious doubts about management while simultaneously recognizing enormous progress in the business.

That doesn’t make management irrelevant. Especially not when execution and financial runway are so critical.

But it does mean I refuse to let my frustration with management blind me to what’s actually happening.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@BowTiedBamboo Over four years and counting.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@TeslaJLP I’ve seen you change your convictions(and your name) many times in the last 5 years.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

(4/4) So why am I still relatively calm?

Not because I trust management.

Not because I know the stock has bottomed.

Not because I believe Eos is guaranteed to succeed.

I’m calm because I understand what I’m betting on, why I’m taking the risk, and what could go wrong.

I’ve learned that discomfort, uncertainty, and even serious doubts about management don’t necessarily invalidate an investment thesis.

Sometimes they reveal genuine problems. Sometimes they create extraordinary opportunities.

The difficult part is learning to distinguish between the two.

And that’s why I keep coming back to the actual progress of the business.

Despite all my criticism of management, I believe Eos is in a stronger operational position today than it has ever been.

The stock price tells a very different story.

Maybe the market sees risks that I’m underestimating. Maybe it’s simply unwilling to accept the uncertainty. Or maybe there’s a genuine disconnect between the price and the underlying business.

I don’t know.

And I don’t need to pretend that I do.

I don’t need to be certain about the outcome to believe the opportunity is worth the risk.

That’s the essence of how I approach investing.

I don’t expect everyone to share my conviction or my appetite for risk.

But I do think it’s worth questioning how much of our investment decisions are driven by what is actually happening in a business, and how much by the emotions created by its stock price.

Because ultimately, the goal isn’t to feel confident every day.

It’s to understand what you own, why you own it, and what would make you change your mind.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

(2/4) I look for tectonic plates moving beneath the surface.

This is probably the most important part of how I think about investing.

I’m not primarily looking for companies that execute perfectly today.

I’m looking for enormous structural changes that unfold over many years.

Changes that can create opportunities far bigger than most people currently imagine.

With Eos, it’s the transformation of how we generate, store, and use energy.

I believe we’re still very early in that transformation.

And these changes don’t happen in straight lines.

Companies struggle. Timelines slip. Expectations get crushed. Investors lose patience.

But the tectonic plates keep moving.

That’s where I try to focus my attention.

Of course, being right about the direction of an industry doesn’t automatically mean you’ve picked the right company.

You can be completely right about the future and still lose your investment.

That’s a risk I take very seriously.

4. I deliberately accept extreme risk.

I’m not looking for safe investments with predictable returns.

I’m interested in opportunities that could potentially deliver 100x returns.

And those opportunities almost never come without enormous uncertainty.

If everything were already proven, profitable, predictable, and widely understood, much of the opportunity would probably already be reflected in the valuation.

That doesn’t mean every risky investment is attractive. Risk alone creates no value.

It means I’m willing to accept uncertainty that many other investors understandably aren’t.

And I’m fully aware that I can lose a substantial amount of money by being wrong.

That’s part of the equation, not something I ignore.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

(3/4) Progress, promises, and time.

5. Progress matters more to me than promises.

Management’s credibility can be restored.

Not through another impressive presentation, ambitious guidance, or exciting announcement.

But by consistently doing what they say they’re going to do. Quarter after quarter.

Until then, I’ll remain skeptical of their promises.

But I also refuse to ignore the progress happening in the actual business.

Those two things can coexist.

Eos can have unreliable management AND be making meaningful operational progress.

The question is whether that progress is enough.

And whether it happens fast enough.

6. Time is part of my investment thesis.

Some people recently asked me whether they should sell $EOSE now and buy back lower. I’m the wrong person to ask that question.

I understand the temptation.

But I don’t know where the stock will trade next week or next month. And I don’t pretend to.

What I do know is that constantly trying to predict short-term price movements can distract you from the very reason you invested in the first place.

I would rather spend my energy understanding where a business could be in five or ten years than trying to predict what the market will do tomorrow.

That doesn’t mean holding forever, ignoring new information, or refusing to admit mistakes.

It means giving the underlying thesis time to develop instead of allowing every price movement to rewrite it.

Time is not automatically your friend. A business can run out of money long before its opportunity materializes.

But when the underlying thesis remains intact, time can be incredibly valuable.

7. What would actually prove me wrong?

This is the question I keep coming back to with Eos.

I have very little doubt about the long-term need for energy storage, the market opportunity, or the potential of the technology.

I also see real progress in manufacturing.

But none of that guarantees Eos will succeed.

The biggest question for me is whether they can reach sustainable profitability before they run out of financial runway.

And if they need more capital, what will that cost existing shareholders?

Because you can be right about the market, right about the product, and right about the long-term opportunity, yet still lose money on the investment.

That’s the risk I take most seriously.

And it’s something I continuously evaluate.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@SpearfishingCap The moment we reach a profitable quarter will be a moment I will very consciously celebrate! 🍾

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

I cannot emphasize this enough. If there is a toilet in your dream, DO NOT use it.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@CocoExiliado 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@libertarien_ Fair point. But the need to polarise more and more is not helping.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

Fair point, and I actually agree with most of what you’re saying.

Using “we’re still early” as a comfort mantra without understanding the risks is definitely flawed.

But I think there’s an important distinction between being early by choice and being early without understanding the risks.

You talk about an optimum amount of early. But optimum for whom?

Personally, I love extreme risk. I thrive on it. I’m only interested in opportunities with 100x potential. And you simply don’t get those opportunities without taking extraordinary risks, often by being extremely early.

I’m not early because it makes me feel safe. Quite the opposite. I’m early because I’m deliberately seeking that risk/reward profile.

And I genuinely appreciate you challenging confirmation bias. We need more of that. But we should also recognize that what you consider an optimal entry point might be completely different from what someone else is looking for.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

When a parking spot is really tight

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

I think you’re absolutely right about the risks of being early. But being early is inherently about risk versus reward.

Some investors deliberately choose to be early, fully aware of the uncertainty, dilution risks and potential setbacks. Others prefer to wait until a company starts delivering, accepting less uncertainty but potentially giving up some upside.

Neither approach is inherently better.

Ironically, you’re doing a little of what you’re warning others against. You’re suggesting a better strategy or entry point based on your own perspective on risk.

In the case of $EOSE, we are still early. And personally, that’s exactly where I want to be. I’m very deliberately an early investor.

I think you’re discovering that you might prefer not to be. And that’s perfectly fine.

The important thing is understanding the risks you’re taking and choosing a strategy that fits you.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

I get that. I had the same intentions. But you can’t prevent people from doing that!

My efforts felt fruitless. So I decided it’s not up to me.

It’s also inherently flawed. Trying to tell people not to listen to people online while saying they need to listen to you🙈

But in the end. People are responsible for their own decisions and they do what they want to do no matter what we say.

My crusade was to give people the tools to handle volatility (long term mindset, and cash strategy) but human nature is strong. Most are not build to put more weight into long term over short term. And our greed and fomo are too strong emotions, so we get all our cash into that rising stock and have nothing left when that inevitable massive dip comes.

And one last reason: this is rarely a platform where posts lead to intelligent discussions. Most of the time, it’s just pointless reactions and noise.

And frankly, I no longer want to spend my time and energy on that.

But sometimes, people like you post something interesting or triggering amazing discussions. It’s why we all stick around I guess, and probably why we want to help. 😉

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@nav7634 Why do you feel the need to warn others all of a sudden?

I’ve tried that. It’s a wasted effort.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@nav7634 Best post you presented, Nav! 💪🏼

Always remember. Most of the original community followed a dog into this ticker.

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

@nav7634

[🔋Tony🔋 @CompoundingTony]

$EOSE

Today is just a moment in time.

If the stock price is hurting you, perhaps you should put less pressure on time.

A stock price might reflect a company’s true value only once a year. The rest of the time, it’s just a price.

Time is your friend!