Bobby Axelrod

Running a macro book at Axe Capital. Reconciling ambiguity in views. Looking for someone like Dollar Bill, PM me a chickentown🐓 and you will be rewarded 💰

[Bobby Axelrod @ConVolGreek]

“Facts do not ‘speak for themselves.’ They speak for or against competing theories. Facts divorced from theory or visions are mere isolated curiosities.” Thomas Sowell

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

POP-ulism… 🎈

[OptionsDepth @OptionsDepth]

Interesting setup on $SPX 👀

A large customer short call position concentrated around the 7525 strike is generating supportive charm flows into the level.

As price closes in, intensifying gamma may act as a ceiling, gradually slowing upward momentum.

[HalfTwit @Point5Twit]

@Merridew__ SPX was up 27% in the period between 6/78 and 6/80

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

The timeline according to JPMorgan:
▸ Feb 2026 → Iran war disrupts supply
▸ June 2026 → Inventories hit 7.6B barrels (Operational Stress Level)
▸ Sept 2026 → Inventories hit 6.8B barrels (Operational Floor)
That last number isn’t a warning.
It’s the minimum required to keep pipelines pressurized and refineries alive.

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

https://t.co/yvRxmNUBMJ

[June Goh @JuneGoh_Sparta]

Here is the compilation of all my posts regarding the basics of crude, condensates and refined products to help you make sense of how bad the situation is for each product.

1) Crude - The tussle for crude leading to high crude premiums and the mismatch of crude qualities to replace the medium sour crude that Asia sorely needs

2) Condensates - The impact of Qatar LNG outage to the oil and petchem world

3) Naphtha + LPG - The basic building blocks of plastics and the bare necessities of life

4) Mogas - the most politically charged barrel but the easiest to solve in the current crisis

5) Jet fuel - The most stressed barrel because you can only get jet fuel from refineries

6) Diesel - The workhorse of the barrel. You need this fuel in industry, power gen, mining, fishing.

7) Fuel oil - The forgotten, unloved barrel but is now priced higher than crude. This is used predominantly as bunker fuel in many of our ships, so again - no crude for refineries = no bunker fuel produced

Sharing is caring. Repost if you care. #oott

[The Best @TheBestqueenx]

😂😂😂

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT SKEW

1. Skew is a critical signal to follow and understand.

2. High skew doesn't automatically mean "big rally".

3. Skew comes from the buildup of concentrated positions.

4. Put – Call Skew is THE MOST IMPORTANT SKEW

5. Skew's impact on the market
DOES NOT CARE ABOUT SOURCE OF POSITION
DOES NOT CARE ABOUT INTENT OF AGGRESSOR

6. Skew's recent fading off the highs as the index moves lower is a really bad sign for bulls.

if you want to know more then retweet this post and reply in the comment with which point you want elaborated (1 through 6)

I'll make a whiteboard video explaining the concept demanded the most.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Crude futures aren't telling the full story.

See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below.

Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical barrels.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We will make the new 𝕏 algorithm, including all code used to determine what organic and advertising posts are recommended to users, open source in 7 days.

This will be repeated every 4 weeks, with comprehensive developer notes, to help you understand what changed.

[Razor Oil @RazorOil]

As a heavy oil expert, with 18 patents in heavy oil production technology development and optimizations, and prior experience as a senior technical SME at a supermajor U.S. oil company that Venezuela still owes money to….I wanted to correct some of the misguided takes circulating on X.

While Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment.
With the next budget season not arriving until Q3, U.S. producers are currently committed to ongoing projects and contractual obligations. Venezuela's oil faces uniquely difficult geology, low ultimate recovery rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. From my work alongside Venezuelans who actually operated projects there, many cited rampant corruption and logistical nightmares as reasons they left the country. At current oil prices, the massive capital required for meaningful production growth simply isn't justified—one leading expert and good friend, estimates it would take at least 3 years to double output, adding about 1 million bbl/d… so not by next week….Unlike Canada, Venezuela has zero SAGD projects ZERO !!; any greenfield heavy oil development there would require at least $30,000 per flowing barrel, meaning roughly $1 billion!! for every 30,000 bbl/d increment achievable in perhaps three years. They mainly produce cold production, which is cheaper I’ll admit!! But with slower flow rates and rely on diluents and polymers which are enhanced recoveries ( EOR) that require capital and supply of these chemicals and infrastructure… more money. Finally, people seem to overlook the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), which already processes around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada ( see pic specifically on 🇨🇦) Venezuela lacks the logistical or practical means to displace that supply. Hope this clarifies things for everyone and helps the understanding of this volatile situation. Thx 🫡🪒

[GenXGirl @GenXGirl1994]

CONNECT THE DOTS

In 2019, Whitney Webb reported US Ambassador to Austria, Ronald Lauder, issued a fake Austrian passport for Epstein

Last night, DOJ released an Austrian passport containing Epstein’s photo but issued under the name “Marius Robert Fortelni”

Lauder is the Pres of the World Jewish Congress & a member of the Pro-Israel Jewish Billionaire Mega Group who recently said anti-Israel speech should be criminalized & all anti-Israel candidates should be crushed

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

This is INSANE 🚨 Mike Benz does through Jeffrey Epstein documents

“Jeffrey Epstein negotiated the f*cking contract to move the CIA’s proprietary airliner, Southern Air Transport, which was busted running drugs and guns during Iran-Contra”

“He (Epstein) personally was the authorized signatory on the deal with Southern Air Transport to move it to a military base in Columbus, Ohio, to service the Limited

Hey, any of you guys got any bright ideas about how you would go about in 1994, convincing the Central Intelligence Agency to move its proprietary CIA airline used for covert operations, based in Miami, to f*cking up and move its entire operation to f*cking Columbus, Ohio, just to service your personal company instead of the CIA?

What do you think he cold called the CIA? You think he just schmoozed the CIA? Or is it because he was handling Khashoggi’s money during Iran-Contra that purchased the guns that Southern Air Transport a decade earlier was moving?

Adnan Khashoggi is the notorious Saudi Arabian billionaire arms dealer and international middleman. He was one of the world’s most prominent arms brokers in the 1970s and 1980s, facilitating massive deals between Western defense contractors (like Lockheed and Northrop) and the Saudi government, earning billions in commissions.

Jeffrey Epstein was so deeply involved in our government and international affairs

[Temu Robot James @ScottPh77711570]

A thread of practical ways to learn how to trade crypto funding

The common method is to learn a bunch of nerd stuff and then get liquidated, scammed, hacked or rugged

Instead I propose funding a DeFi wallet with a small amount of money ($100 is fine) and FAFO

/1

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

The AI bubble explained

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

This is how you know AI is a bubble. Nobody even knows what the hell is going on. Elon is like “We’re building 500 megawatts, gigawatts, I don’t know man who cares? It’s going to cost eight bazillion trillion dollars.” Jensen starts sweating and says “stop that,” and they rush in. It’s just made up Monopoly money and random announcements. Elon can’t even hide his amusement. 😂 💀

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Sometimes, we see bubbles.
Sometimes, there is something to do about it.
Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Don’t take my word for it, just ask the Australian PM!

[Conks @conksresearch]

Despite the Federal Reserve’s stealth easing programs persisting, dollar strength has begun to accelerate. Yet as liquidity drains, the world's response will not be to de-dollarize but to seek more dollar liquidity. The Fed’s global swap network is set to expand... 1/

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

BREAKING: Jerome Powell starts his speech after Jackson Hole meeting