Helima

OPEC watcher, energy and geopolitics enthusiast, proud supporter of the Icelandic national soccer team, mother of three little Vikings...

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

#Iraq: Attack knocks Khor Mor field offline, threatening weeks of power cuts
Significant damage is likely to shut in gas production for weeks — a sharp reminder of the Iraqi government's failure to assert control over armed groups. https://t.co/NpOxt0HPEn

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S REZAEI: US CLAIMS OF CONTINUED IRAN TALKS AIM TO EASE OIL PRICES

[The National @TheNationalNews]

UAE ship attacked and damaged in Arabian Gulf https://t.co/mNMcNLFdwP

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S MAJOR GENERAL REZAI: HORMUZ WILL NOT BE REOPENED UNTIL IRAN'S 7 CONDITIONS ARE MET.

[Hiba Nasr @HibaNasr]

‼️ @SecRubio on a possible deal with Iran:

Iran would love a deal. The problem is the conditions they continue to place are absurd, like they're not even serious right now. So, but that could change. Certainly, I mean the pain that they're feeling is a. Eventually, you have to eat. Eventually, you have to be able to pay your own fighters and your own security forces and so forth. Eventually, the economic realities penetrate the skull of even the most radical lunatic. So, I think as time goes on, I mean that that will have an impact. But yeah, the U.S. always stands ready. There's a real deal to be done. We're open, and there's countries out there that are engaged. The Qataris were in Washington yesterday. The Prime Minister met with the President. We've had discussions with them ongoing, and they and other countries continue to try to act as mediators, trying to float ideas back and forth. We're not discouraging them from doing it. You know, there's a deal to be done. The President will be the first one to be in favor of it. It's not going to be a stupid deal. It's not going to be. to be a bad deal. Otherwise, we'll you know they'll just continue to impoverish themselves.

[Brett McGurk @brett_mcgurk]

Iran: My column with three scenarios before the midterms. The situation is now in Option 2 and poised to remain there for the foreseeable future.
https://t.co/Xyk0X6PsKI

[AL-MONITOR @AlMonitor]

France vows tough response to freezer cyberattack blamed on Iran
https://t.co/4F4wNLH2C2

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

A good piece by @AlexVatanka on Mohsen Rezaie, his history and current role https://t.co/yaeig7ECnG

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Trump’s Message on Iran: The Gulf Wants No War, but the Status Quo Is Unsustainable

One thing stands out from Trump’s latest post: Gulf states clearly oppose another military confrontation with Iran. I suspect this was the central message conveyed during the meeting itself, as well as in conversations between senior U.S. officials and their Gulf counterparts.

There is a growing and welcome recognition across the Gulf that another war would not serve the interests of these countries. Quite the opposite. They would be among the first to pay the price, particularly if Iran retaliated against energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and other strategic assets.

But the real question is whether the meeting produced a new diplomatic proposal, and more importantly, whether Washington is showing any genuine flexibility. Because one thing should be clear: the current status quo cannot last.

Iran is unlikely to accept an indefinite blockade. Tehran could respond by targeting additional tankers and raising the economic and military costs of maintaining it. At the same time, once the new Congress takes office, the administration could face growing pressure to reconsider a blockade that has failed to produce Iranian capitulation while imposing significant costs on the global economy.

And there is a fundamental problem with Washington's approach: a blockade is a means of applying pressure, not an end in itself. If Tehran refuses to surrender, what exactly is the next step?

To conclude, Gulf states want to avoid escalation, and Trump increasingly appears inclined in the same direction. But preferences are not policy, and diplomatic statements are not a diplomatic breakthrough.

Unless Washington and Tehran find a formula that allows both sides to claim some degree of success, the situation will remain dangerously unstable.

The absence of an immediate war should not be mistaken for de-escalation. As long as the blockade remains in place without a credible diplomatic exit, the risk of another military confrontation will remain real.

#Iran
#IranWar

[Jamie Ingram @Jamie__Ingram]

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline targeted again today. Ministry says small fire was extinguished "without affecting the pipeline's operations" #OOTT

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

#Iran says no plan for US talks unless Washington meets seven conditions https://t.co/4X0FDZP0rK

[واس العام @SPAregions]

مصدر مسؤول في وزارة الطاقة: استهداف خط أنابيب شرق–غرب في منطقة المدينة المنورة.
https://t.co/E9P7PTGsOG
#واس

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

*SAUDI EAST-WEST PIPELINE TARGETED IN MEDINA: SPA

[Bozorgmehr Sharafedin @bozorgmehr]

UAE’s Gargash on Iran-US war:

"We should ... prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional ​order can be taken for granted ,"

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

President Trump will meet with the Prime Minister of Qatar at 12pm ET, per White House schedule.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says talks with Iran have not been productive, describing Tehran’s demands as “simply unacceptable” and, in some cases, “outrageous�� and “ridiculous.” - Bloomberg

[aru @arinevercry45]

Fuck it Gary Oldman for James Bond

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Araghchi reiterates Iran's position: accept our terms, or expect retaliation if you attack.

Ball is in US court.

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

IRGC claims three tankers caught fire in Hormuz on Sunday - Fars #oott

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

A projectile hit a tower in the financial district of Saudi Arabia’s capital as Yemen’s Houthi rebels again targeted Riyadh, striking another landmark in an air campaign that is disrupting life in the kingdom https://t.co/4aDOc2lkcA