CrosscheckC

l/s equity generalist. focuses: airlines/travel, industrials, fad/fraud/cyclical shorts. opinions my own. just replies & dms.

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@ebitdaddy90 If you really know any name, you know LLM summaries don’t capture the core of what matters (for earnings nor the stock) but I agree you must be more cognizant of flows and 1st-order thinking re: path (unclear if this is LLM related or more due to the bubble/policy-driven regime)

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@Compounds365 @citrini

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@ChairliftCap Do you have amnesia?

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@rev_cap It’s all downstream of monetary policy and passive share, and to a lesser extent enforcement regime

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@winsteadscap @UpslopeCapital Haha thanks for the callout!

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@Mick_Kirkland @HighyieldHarry Not saying it’s a bubble but every one of these hold for the Dot Com bubble

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@WaterworldCapi1 PATK - rv and boat volume reductions, rv OEM insourcing, tariff headwinds, decontenting - misunderstood organic growth profile

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@shortbus_ace Nah that news cycle ended once they got the post-Covid labor contract cycle done

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@BillBrewsterTBB @shortbus_ace It’s a policy decision depending in the degree of mergers and bailouts

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@BillBrewsterTBB @shortbus_ace It probably would’ve accelerated JBLU’s demise and delayed Spirit’s

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@WilliamJMcGee Yes then all the airlines lose money and we bail them out. This is not the way.

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@kpottermn Higher fares are good. The cheap fares you mention are subsidized by frequent taxpayer bailouts. We need to pay more to fly less so that airlines can operate as real businesses and middleman for the transfer of taxpayer dollars to Boeing, airports and unions

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@kpottermn @matthewstoller Yes there are structural differences, namely the short haul / leisure heavy nature of European travel vs longer haul and more business oriented nature of US travel. But also introduction of basic economy (whereby legacies unbundled seats at LCC-like product)

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@AvgTacos @zerohedge Well usually

Recall that Aercap only required $9.5m maintenance deposits for 36 planes and thus owner ended up actually PAYING Spirit, letting them reject leases and accepting an unsecured claim (donut unsurprisingly). I think the negotiating balance can be cyclical

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@junkbondinvest This is obvious strategic leak / public negotiating / gamesmanship. Creditors threatening Trump with the headline ‘stranded passengers due to Iran war fuel spike’ trying to get a better bailout. May or may not happen

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@vivekrajan1380 @unusual_whales I don’t think an airline failing to finalize their second bankruptcy in 18 months due to fuel doubling just before exit plan approval

The fact there was a second exit plan at all says debt is pretty cheap

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@spicey_lemonade @iScienceLuvr So can a calculator

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@evrgn11112231 Idk about that, look at the view count vs reply count

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@alixpasquet Maybe calculus changes -> ROI pencils fewer analysts & lot more 40yo+. Ramp up time longer 4 rookies & output differential of young/hungry narrows/flips. Some 2yr pre-mba programs cldnt deal w/ post COVID cohort pre-AI. Sad. Mentorship important but from our economics still work?

[CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC]

@alixpasquet Enhance 4 analysts who got reps manually. Haven’t found useful enuf 2 learn anything edge-generating (maybe dif by sector w/ on depth/quality training data)

Dull 4 newcomers unfort. Pressure of increased output->shortcut->groupthink

Have to know enuf to utilize 4 creative uses